1. #1
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Kershaw -300 Today.....In Reality True Odds Probably -200

    He is not a stud to be -300 anymore

    99% of pitchers are not anymore and a big part if most teams cannot hit so can get upset in close game and parity running rampant in MLB

    Blowouts rare

  2. #2
    3runhomer
    3runhomer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-10
    Posts: 423
    Betpoints: 1901

    I agree!

    It is getting ridiculous to see Kershaw and Arieta at -300 and above each outing...

    But the public keeps betting it obviously. Most every Cubs game is at least -200

  3. #3
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    I get Kershaw -245. Overvalued yes but not -200.

  4. #4
    BIGDAY
    angelman.org
    BIGDAY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 48,241
    Betpoints: 24854

    I'm layin the juuuuuuice.

    Should be an easy win.

  5. #5
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    SD a scrappy team

    Elk be careful here

  6. #6
    BIGDAY
    angelman.org
    BIGDAY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 48,241
    Betpoints: 24854

    Taking Kershey to the BANK.

  7. #7
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    I mean even with a couple mediocre starts Opposing hitters are only hitting .199 BA against thim

    which is slightly better than his career of .207

    guy makes EVERY hitter combined flirt with the Mendoza line

    with 3 walks allowed in 37 IP

    not too shabby

  8. #8
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    Kershaw is 7-3 lifetime as a 300 or better favorite.

  9. #9
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    .469 OPS

    Clayton Kershaw Batter vs Pitching Stats


    Clayton Kershaw vs.
    - Next Start: 5/1 4:10 ET vs. SD
    SAN DIEGO PADRES CAREER STATISTICS VS. CLAYTON KERSHAW
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Alexi Amarista 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .100 .100 .100 .200
    Christian Bethancourt 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Austin Hedges 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Travis Jankowski 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Jon Jay 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 6 .182 .250 .273 .523
    Matt Kemp 8 2 1 0 0 3 1 4 .250 .333 .375 .708
    Wil Myers 11 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 .000 .077 .000 .077
    Derek Norris 14 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 .214 .214 .286 .500
    Alexei Ramirez 11 5 1 0 0 1 0 2 .455 .455 .545 1.000
    Adam Rosales 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .333 .500 .333 .833
    Yangervis Solarte 12 2 1 0 0 0 3 3 .167 .333 .250 .583
    Cory Spangenberg 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Melvin Upton Jr. 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 .182 .182 .182 .364
    Jemile Weeks 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .333 .000 .333
    Totals 100 18 5 0 0 5 7 37 .180 .239 .230 .469




    SPONSORED HEADLINES










  10. #10
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    line dipping

    Be careful here

  11. #11
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 82,188
    Betpoints: 292

    I have Kershaw as -239.564896530864 favorite to win today. My model calculates 12 decimals of accuracy but I'm 20 units down this season so far.

  12. #12
    TheChamp1
    TheChamp1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-20-15
    Posts: 811
    Betpoints: 6383

    The problem with Kershaw at -300 is that he could hold the opposing team to a shut out through 7 innings, but the Dodgers offense will also be held to a shut out. So once the atrocious Dodgers bullpen comes in, it's a complete new ball game

  13. #13
    iloseagain
    iloseagain's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-29-10
    Posts: 10,682
    Betpoints: 268

    i have sd ML, +1.5 and -1.5 +425

    dodgers cant hit

  14. #14
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Another tight game and not easy for a huge favorite like this

  15. #15
    UncleChael
    Tell 'em UncleChael sent ya
    UncleChael's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-13
    Posts: 3,979
    Betpoints: 1125

    The books have to make their money back.. Put Kershaw -400 you still ain't gonna make your money back. King Kershaw.

  16. #16
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    The books have to make their money back.. Put Kershaw -400 you still ain't gonna make your money back. King Kershaw.

  17. #17
    play4win
    play4win's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-23-11
    Posts: 2,208
    Betpoints: 5173

    this clown ways win with 1 run. most overrated sp ever.

  18. #18
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    3 hit shutout. What more do you want want? JJ Gold talking out his ass again

  19. #19
    CWD
    Update your status
    CWD's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-12
    Posts: 7,667
    Betpoints: 190

    have u ever heard the phrase NO JUICE WHEN YOU WIN

  20. #20
    iloseagain
    iloseagain's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-29-10
    Posts: 10,682
    Betpoints: 268

    lol kershaw has covered 3 out of 5 games on the RL. Last 2 he hasnt and everyone is up in arms. Its not like hes going to win and cover every single time he pitches. People will bet kershaw every game because of his name. Heres a tip: dont bet a team -1.5 when the most runs theyve scored in the past 7 is 3 runs (one time!) and every other game has been 2, 1, or 0.

  21. #21
    mr. leisure
    mr. leisure's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 17,505
    Betpoints: 32858

    Complete game shutout win 14 SO , 3 hits and 0 walks

  22. #22
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,467
    Betpoints: 12882

    Quote Originally Posted by mr. leisure View Post
    Complete game shutout win 14 SO , 3 hits and 0 walks

  23. #23
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    dude's WHIP is now 0.72

    but what an over-rated bum

    guy couldn't hit a solo HR so they could win 2-0

    sheesh on man

  24. #24
    darrell74
    darrell74's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-16-07
    Posts: 14,206
    Betpoints: 19224

    We all know most people are banging their heads in disgust because they took the run line.
    Baseball bettors don't bet 300's when they got a run line.

    Game should have been a pass for everyone, anyways. Dodgers are ice cold.

  25. #25
    iloseagain
    iloseagain's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-29-10
    Posts: 10,682
    Betpoints: 268

    Quote Originally Posted by darrell74 View Post
    We all know most people are banging their heads in disgust because they took the run line.
    Baseball bettors don't bet 300's when they got a run line.

    Game should have been a pass for everyone, anyways. Dodgers are ice cold.
    i took u6.5 and HRE u22.5. I though the HRE bet was very solid considering Pads werent going to hit and it seemed highly unlikely that Dodgers would hit Pomeranz. It ended at 8 TOTAL lol. Easy winner. Never had to sweat

  26. #26
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    run lines for suckers

    lots of 1 run games

  27. #27
    Luckycharms2012
    Luckycharms2012's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 2,422
    Betpoints: 5412

    Took the under.

  28. #28
    BIGDAY
    angelman.org
    BIGDAY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 48,241
    Betpoints: 24854

    Doesn't get much easier.

  29. #29
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 82,188
    Betpoints: 292

    Kershaw was firing on all cylinders today. He put on a clinic out there.

  30. #30
    keel44
    Update your status
    keel44's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-09
    Posts: 3,363
    Betpoints: 12276

    If you want to key in on a pitcher only....just bet the first 5

  31. #31
    thellama
    thellama's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-27-15
    Posts: 899
    Betpoints: 3073

    And just hope they score a run.

  32. #32
    iloseagain
    iloseagain's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-29-10
    Posts: 10,682
    Betpoints: 268

    Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
    If you want to key in on a pitcher only....just bet the first 5
    thats a terrible strategy. Kersh 1h line was like -0.5 -170 today or something ridiculous. You will get killed betting those
    Quote Originally Posted by thellama View Post
    And just hope they score a run.
    yea exactly. Which doesnt happen often with great pitchers. They never seem to get run support. King felix and Kersh are both bot 3 in run support since 2008.

  33. #33
    habitualwinning
    habitualwinning's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-12
    Posts: 1,569
    Betpoints: 6311

    Quote Originally Posted by 3runhomer View Post
    I agree!

    It is getting ridiculous to see Kershaw and Arieta at -300 and above each outing...

    But the public keeps betting it obviously. Most every Cubs game is at least -200
    The shit is ridiculous. I was screwing around earlier looking at old lines and I was looking through the 2001 Mariners with the record for most wins in a season. They only had about 30 games where they were favored more than -200 for the whole season, including playoffs. Cubs have already had like 10 games of -200 or better and the first month of the season just ended. The 2001 Mariners didn't have any games where they were -300 or better favs and the Cubs and Dodgers have both already had a few. The M's even had at least one game that I saw where they were +200 and a couple others where they were +155, +170 etc. that was the greatest team ever based on record. Let me know when the Cubs or Dodgers are +200 this season.

  34. #34
    pabonaparte
    bobbywaves aka the chosen one
    pabonaparte's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-21-16
    Posts: 3,400
    Betpoints: 593

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Taking Kershey to the BANK.
    While RL is dangerous with the Dodgers (not the Cubs!) ML is easy money with both Arieta and Kershaw. Price well justified!

  35. #35
    darrell74
    darrell74's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-16-07
    Posts: 14,206
    Betpoints: 19224

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    run lines for suckers

    lots of 1 run games
    they're all sucker bets
    home team run lines drive me crazy- I stay away because you can lose the bottom of the ninth

    -hate run lines at home and with public pitchers

12 Last
Top