[Bigdave117]

Putrid twinkies team facing red hot Strasburg...they may strikeout 20 times in this game



Can't decide if I should play 175 ML or +125 RL

[stevenash]

Putrid twinkies team facing red hot Strasburg...they may strikeout 20 times in this game



Can't decide if I should play 175 ML or +125 RL

Risky business playing a home team on a run line.
Risky business laying 75 cents in any April game.

If I was going to play Stras today, I would use him -175 with another total or side in a two team parlay.
But that's just me, and I'm staying away from the Natty's today.

[Bigdave117]

Risky business playing a home team on a run line.
Risky business laying 75 cents in any April game.

If I was going to play Stras today, I would use him -175 with another total or side in a two team parlay.
But that's just me, and I'm staying away from the Natty's today.

Nationals have won 14 of Strasburg's last 16 starts...and they face a very soft AL lineup without a DH

[stevenash]

Nationals have won 14 of Strasburg's last 16 starts...and they face a very soft AL lineup without a DH

I get that, but if you bet the run line, you are short changing yourself a turn at bat (the ninth inning)
If Nats are up 3-1 top of nine, and they pull Stras after 8 strong innings, and bring in Paps to close out the ninth, and gives up a riun say like this, walk, then gets first out on fielders choice, runner moves to second, than an out, than a RBI single, then the third out, game over, Nats win 3-2, you don't because you laid 1.5 runs.

I mean it could very well be a 7-1 blow out too, but I wouldn't bet a home team in a run line situation.

[Bigdave117]

I get that, but if you bet the run line, you are short changing yourself a turn at bat (the ninth inning)
If Nats are up 3-1 top of nine, and they pull Stras after 8 strong innings, and bring in Paps to close out the ninth, and gives up a riun say like this, walk, then gets first out on fielders choice, runner moves to second, than an out, than a RBI single, then the third out, game over, Nats win 3-2, you don't because you laid 1.5 runs.

I mean it could very well be a 7-1 blow out too, but I wouldn't bet a home team in a run line situation.

True but I always evaluate the odds. Nationals have won 7 of 8 homegames and 6 by 2 runs+


Let's say for long term under these conditions, Nats win 6 of 10 by 2+ runs and then win 2 others by 1 run. With the 2 run line bet, you're up +350. Even with them going 8-2 under the ML, you're only up +264


It seems that the RL is a much better play unless you think there is a 30-40% chance Nats win by only 1 run

[LordVodka]

Strassburg can't hold a lead. He's a ticking time bomb. Minny can win this easily.

[Bigdave117]

Strassburg can't hold a lead. He's a ticking time bomb. Minny can win this easily.

Strasburg's been the best pitcher in the majors not named Arrieta for his last 16 starts


When he's healthy and right, I would argue he's a top 5 pitcher in the league

[stevenash]

^
Don't me wrong, I got money tied up in Stras in some daily's (DFS)
Believe it or not, betting two chalk teams in a two team parlay cuts into the books edge.
If I get a chance I'll show the math.

For instance, if you lay 75 cents in one game and 60 cents on the other in two straight bets, if team a loses and team b wins, you have to give the book 175 for the loser but you collect 100 for the winner for a net loss of 75 dollars.

However if you bet the two on a 100 dollar parlay if both teams win you collect 155.36 (the payout for a 75 cent and 60 cent fave)
If one team loses, the parlay is shot, same with two teams, but the parlay insures you only lose 100 as opposed to 335 if both teams lost.
There's more to the formula, but the two teamer is the way to go with chalky big favorites.

[Bigdave117]

^
Don't me wrong, I got money tied up in Stras in some daily's (DFS)
Believe it or not, betting two chalk teams in a two team parlay cuts into the books edge.
If I get a chance I'll show the math.

For instance, if you lay 75 cents in one game and 60 cents on the other in two straight bets, if team a loses and team b wins, you have to give the book 175 for the loser but you collect 100 for the winner for a net loss of 75 dollars.

However if you bet the two on a 100 dollar parlay if both teams win you collect 155.36 (the payout for a 75 cent and 60 cent fave)
If one team loses, the parlay is shot, same with two teams, but the parlay insures you only lose 100 as opposed to 335 if both teams lost.
There's more to the formula, but the two teamer is the way to go with chalky big favorites.

I don't think betting ML instead of RL makes much sense with these dominant teams though


Cubs for example have won 12 of 13 wins by 2+ runs. There's just absolutely no value and no point in betting ML when, if they win, they're going to generally win by 4+ runs

[jjgold]

Harper was out I think

PASS

[stevenash]

^
I hear what you are saying, you have a good head on your shoulders, I can't argue what you are saying, it's just a policy of mine
But even that's not set in stone, there are a few exceptions, KC for instance has made me coin on the run line at the K.

I follow KC religiously, they rake like the Blue Jays, however the difference is Jays will bomb you where Royals will water torture you to death with singles and doubles, when KC faces a suck ass righty, 1 through 6 will kill you, starting with Escobar, but I can't do it today, even though Mike Wright is a suck ass righty, we're talking Baltimore as the opposition, and they got lumber that can hurt Ventura.

Having said all that, over in that KC/Balt game looks tempting

[Bigdave117]

^
I hear what you are saying, you have a good head on your shoulders, I can't argue what you are saying, it's just a policy of mine
But even that's not set in stone, there are a few exceptions, KC for instance has made me coin on the run line at the K.

I follow KC religiously, they rake like the Blue Jays, however the difference is Jays will bomb you where Royals will water torture you to death with singles and doubles, when KC faces a suck ass righty, 1 through 6 will kill you, starting with Escobar, but I can't do it today, even though Mike Wright is a suck ass righty, we're talking Baltimore as the opposition, and they got lumber that can hurt Ventura.

Having said all that, over in that KC/Balt game looks tempting

KC is the team you don't play the runline. They've won 4 of 11 games by only 1 run

[stevenash]

KC is the team you don't play the runline. They've won 4 of 11 games by only 1 run

I.m talking about spot plays.
That's who I am, that's what I do, spot plays.