1. 04-21-16 06:56 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 4/21/16

    5 MLB Plays Thursday

    Athletics / Yankees UNDER 8 -109 (5 Dimes)
    Reds +189 (Heritage)
    Cubs / Reds OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)
    Tigers +151 (Heritage)
    Pirates / Padres OVER 6.5 -110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 34-41-1, -2.53
    Points Awarded:

    Angus.93 gave LT Profits 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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  2. 04-21-16 07:43 AM #2
    chosen4th
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    I would imagine with all the huge ML's today because of all the aces going that this is a tough day for your system on money lines? Do you like anyone -1.5 like you did with the mets the other night?
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  3. 04-21-16 08:30 AM #3
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    60%ers:

    Dodgers 74% (-285)
    Washington 67% (-203)
    Boston 63% (-170)
    Cubs 63% (-170)
    Houston 62% (-163)

    I already went against the Cubs at +189. Apparently the model is a bit more fond of Finnegan than the general market.
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  4. 04-21-16 08:31 AM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by chosen4th View Post
    I would imagine with all the huge ML's today because of all the aces going that this is a tough day for your system on money lines? Do you like anyone -1.5 like you did with the mets the other night?
    Highly doubt I'll do Run Lines today, but you never know.
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  5. 04-21-16 10:26 AM #5
    stackz125
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    Are there any plays that YOU like rather than your model?
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  6. 04-21-16 12:08 PM #6
    LT Profits
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    3 MLB Additions

    8 MLB Plays Thursday

    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks +0.5 +115 (5 innings) (5 Dimes)
    Athletics / Yankees UNDER 8 -109 (5 Dimes)
    Reds +189 (Heritage)
    Cubs / Reds OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)
    Tigers +151 (Heritage)
    Pirates / Padres OVER 6.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Pirates / Padres OVER 3.5 +100 (5 innings) (Heritage)
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  7. 04-21-16 03:15 PM #7
    Conqueror
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    Do you think the Padres' offense will stay this hot for a while?
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  8. 04-21-16 05:41 PM #8
    tradeout
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    LT Profits

    Why don't you post all your plays in the first post, rather than add them later?

    Is it because of the line movement across some sportsbooks?

    Cheers
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  9. 04-21-16 05:49 PM #9
    Louisvillekid1
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    By then the lines could be gone
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  10. 04-21-16 05:54 PM #10
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    8 MLB Plays Thursday

    Diamondbacks / Giants UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)
    Unreal horseshit loss.
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  11. 04-21-16 06:02 PM #11
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by tradeout View Post
    LT Profits

    Why don't you post all your plays in the first post, rather than add them later?

    Is it because of the line movement across some sportsbooks?

    Cheers
    Are you familiar with betting? This is a very basic question to be asking? - just curious
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  12. 04-21-16 06:09 PM #12
    tradeout
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlb View Post
    Are you familiar with betting? This is a very basic question to be asking? - just curious
    basic question? lol
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  13. 04-21-16 06:10 PM #13
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by tradeout View Post
    basic question? lol
    why are you laughing out loud?

    Yes basic, it's fairly obvious why he posts plays over time and not all at once...

    Anyone else L.o.Ling saying that was a basic question
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  14. 04-21-16 06:16 PM #14
    tradeout
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlb View Post
    Are you familiar with betting? This is a very basic question to be asking? - just curious
    let's say i am not familiar with betting. enlighten why this is obvious
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  15. 04-21-16 06:20 PM #15
    blackHIPPY
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    They got our ass in the 9th LT
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  16. 04-21-16 06:25 PM #16
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by tradeout View Post
    let's say i am not familiar with betting. enlighten why this is obvious
    Has nothing to do with enlightening you ... And I can tell you are taking offense to this...

    He is a model base better - as lines and situations change, he has certain games that become plays, hence why he added them.

    The reason he doesn't wait until the end to place all would be the lines would be stale hence challenging the integrity of his lines and plays - like I said, basic, if you know anything about betting and posting plays
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  17. 04-21-16 06:30 PM #17
    tradeout
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlb View Post

    The reason he doesn't wait until the end to place all would be the lines would be stale hence challenging the integrity of his lines and plays - like I said, basic, if you know anything about betting and posting plays
    The reason why i was asking is because i don't get this:

    LT posts 3 plays according to his 'system' fair enough. an hour later he adds a few more plays. How come his 'system' didn't detect those plays earlier?
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  18. 04-21-16 06:34 PM #18
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by tradeout View Post
    The reason why i was asking is because i don't get this:

    LT posts 3 plays according to his 'system' fair enough. an hour later he adds a few more plays. How come his 'system' didn't detect those plays earlier?
    Line moves and/or lineup changes would be my guess
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  19. 04-21-16 06:41 PM #19
    LT Profits
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    Yes, has to do with line movement and there are several types of moves. The most basic is a line moving to the point where a game becomes playable, but another type of move is when I originally pass on a play where my model is TOO far off of the real line. In this case, I often jump in if the line moves TOWARD my number while still leaving enough room to be +EV.
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  20. 04-21-16 06:42 PM #20
    jgold254
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    Quote Originally Posted by tradeout View Post
    The reason why i was asking is because i don't get this:

    LT posts 3 plays according to his 'system' fair enough. an hour later he adds a few more plays. How come his 'system' didn't detect those plays earlier?
    Say there is a play that looks good through the model but has a price of -150 at 10am. He's not gonna play it. But if it moves down to -128 at noon, he might. All about line movement with these models.
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  21. 04-21-16 06:45 PM #21
    pavyracer
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    LT just a quick question. Have you ever woken up and looked at the teams playing and the starting pitchers but pick 7 games without looking at lines or model data and place your bets? Do you think you can go 0-7 with just betting by your gut feelings?
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  22. 04-21-16 06:57 PM #22
    mikefan1034
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    Have u ever wondered if ur model just doesn't work anymore? Like betting against arieta like who does that what's the point
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  23. 04-21-16 11:25 PM #23
    JJJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikefan1034 View Post
    have u ever wondered if ur model just doesn't work anymore? Like betting against arieta like who does that what's the point
    have you ever wondered that everyone just ignores you
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  24. 04-21-16 11:32 PM #24
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    have you ever wondered that everyone just ignores you
    Problem is you didn't ignore him..
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  25. 04-21-16 11:35 PM #25
    JJJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Problem is you didn't ignore him..
    mentally we all ignore him
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  26. 04-21-16 11:38 PM #26
    juicername
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    And please don't quote mikefan1034 either. I have him on ignore but I can see the quoted post ...
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  27. 04-22-16 12:06 AM #27
    jjgold
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    I think dogs are pouring in making it very difficult right now to get in the groove
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