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Help making a personal line in Basketball
I'm needing advice on what metrics to use when preparing a basketball line to compare it to the books. I need some type of guidance on what are the steps and how I should start. Not sure if there is material on the subject, a book or something that I can use as a guide. Not really sure how odds makers prepare the line however I would like to start preparing my lines and compare them to the books. Thanks in advance.
Sportsbooks typically create lines on what they think the betting public will be on. From there, they will move it as info comes in, be it sharp bettors or injury alerts. In a lot of games it is about matchups so there is no perfect formula. Of course the first things books look at is what players look at...Who is the stonger team and who is home/away and how so they perform in those situations? Who is rested or tired. After that.. what factors do you feel play the biggest roll? Shaq in the paint for Steph on the 3.
Welcome to the board Jumpman.
The people that come up with their own lines use computer programs. All kinds of statistics come into play from pace of play to free throw shooting percentage and how certain team defend 3 pointers and such. Basically, if you have to ask, you can't do it. You just have to wing it like everybody else and go with what your head/gut tells you from your own personal perspective.Originally Posted by Jumpman 23
If you think you might want to try it, you will probably want to subscribe to Kenpom and you can start to get a feel for what is involved. But to win using your own numbers, you have to be smarter than the numbers geeks and there is not much of chance of that because those guys are really smart and they are all trying to get over on one another.
People think of linesmakers as these actuaries with proprietary million dollar programs. Ive been talking to some of the top bookmakers as they happen to be setting lines and they literally have said, what do you think about this game, total of 202? We talk for a little while more during halftime... eh -5 sounds good right? I say how the hell do I know? Eh make it 5.5. Lines are coming out so fast and some books rather be first or on the early side than worry about taking a few bets on soft numbers. You can see it on thin markets. An MLB team will open at -130 and then a few hours later its 190. NBA totals are moving 5 points. No one got hurt on those teams. No all-stars were added...openers are just openers.
There are 3 ways to make money in sports betting. 1) bet openers. 2) bet line moves (some books see you as a trader or the scum of the earth.) 3) Get inside info (create the line moves mentioned in #2).
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Totals are much more difficult to get a grip on.
Sides - you could go look at Sagarin from USA Today. Pretty basic - maybe a place to start. Then get into it on variables - matchups - injuries - you might be surprised at how many sides the rating here is reasonably close. For recent form - you could keep a file and make one copy a week on Monday and try to see who is trending up or down and probably plug in why?
Some people say books do you no good and I disagree - the more you know the better. Eventually, it comes down to you inventing your own way. Nobody is teaching the class - somebody that does know how to do it is most likely keeping it to themselves and not talking - the touts that say they know how to do it are probably full of crap.
Gambler's Book Club in Vegas has some good books and that guy (call him) can give you ideas on what to read.
I made one for college using sagarin's statistics/ratings and I'm up around 30 units on season (only doing 1 unit plays). I didn't think about doing it for nba. but there is some good information out there on web and this forum you just have to look and basically compile all the info into something that makes sense.
The book invested millions to make the opening lines and you need an easy way to make your own? How about learning how to play darts first and then I'll give you some advice.
Seriously, are you reminiscing of the conversations you had with your buddies in the 70s ? Or maybe you were talking about 1800s ? These days, the lines are set to be uniform across all books, not by some half-baked dudes working for random books.
At the end of the day it's all luck. But if you look at the definition of luck it's "when preparation meets opportunity" now I don't agree you can prepare yourself to win the lotto but I do believe you can prepare yourself to win a sports bet. It's analogous to stocks. Financial analyst take all information on the company then formulate a projection. Same as here. Use past performances, trends on road or at home, coming off a win/loss, points for or against etc.
youre not not going to win every game but knowledge is power.
not worth it
What Billy said is best advice
Bet Openers, Bet Steam..maybe light capping
brooklyn sucking ass here
your not beating the books period unless you take positions on overnights
So, you can smell the good positions that way? Injury information is up for grabs, at that point. That is where making your own line would have the most value!
Can you get on the right side of line movement 7 of 10 plays?
Im talking real line openers... places that Vegas will follow. If it was as scientific as a lot of folks thing you wouldn't have 6 pt moves on an NBA total opener. Halftimes? A lot of lines come out at the same time and are different then one gets bet up to where the others are. It doesnt take many bets to shape a line.
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If you're a numbers guy and you've been doing this stuff for a while, you should be able to make your own opening line. When your amateur line differs greatly from the Vegas line--figure that you're wrong and they're right. Bet against your number.
Have a list of what you think are the biggest factors. I like last ten games, home/away record, look at who they played those last ten games, injuries, how the two teams match up. And don't get caught up in thinking every game is scripted either. The more teams you watch, the better youll be able to predict what the line will be. Sometimes regular season records can be misleading. Don't forget to look at average margin of victory too....Just my opinion. Good luck
That's rediculous JJ.
Some people do win consistently. Not everybody loses.
Once you've been doing this long enough, you can eyeball any NBA game and set a line that will be no more than 2 points outside what Vegas sets. It's not all that difficult, comes with experience. I do it everyday right before I check the actual lines. Of course you need to stay up to date with injuries, but that's not a problem when you follow NBA on a daily basis...
Home team opening line defaults to -4.5. Factor in your own thoughts/feelings on players/matchups/ home vs away/historical trends/injury info etc and move line as you see fit. assign numerical values to "weight" players which can help you out when trying to figure out the impact on the game should player "x" be out due to injury.
/End thread
That is the point. Try find it out. I really interested to know more about.
No such thing
Waste of time
Pinny line too sharp
a lot of work to do this. try waking up on a saturday morning and have to sift through about 100 college basketball games trying to find what you think is a 1or 2 pt. edge. you'd have to be so disciplined and dedicated and have nothing else to do (you wouldn't have time to anything else). maybe in january when conference play starts you can isolate a couple of conferences and come up with some edges. getting tired just thinking about all that work that would have to be done and some player misses a free throw at the end and you don't cover. or they just dribble out the clock with 9 seconds left when you need them to get fouled but the other team has just given up. so many factors. the human mind isn't strong enough for all that.
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