There is quite a bit of agreement on the numbers with this game. Non predictive stats and unsophisticated bettors using averages agree with sharper models, giving South Dakota State basically a six point win. That early line was 7 and ticked upwards, for more than one possible reason, before heading towards the aggregate forecasts of about 6 points. Most houses opened at 6 points.
There are groups seeking the favorite here and may have been defended against with the early 7 point open. On top of that, I have evidence indicating the early shift to 7.5 was an attempt at manipulation trying to clear some distance for the sharpest -5.5 lines.
It’s no secret the balance of money came early at a 6 point open. I believe many sharp bettors are sidelined on the side for this game and those groups that seek the favorite are writing the tickets. Those guys that hit the markets with underdog bets at +7.5 are likely done buying buy now and will seek no more action.
So what’s the play? I tend to agree with BigDay. The groups, aligned with the books, doing the manipulating tend to get the best of it in these situations.
That said it’s most certainly a pass on the side for me.
Good Luck BigDay, I hope you pounded the winner.