1. #1
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    NBA: Warriors vs. Clippers ~ plays, angles, discussion

    Reasons why I am on the Warriors:

    Historically, the Warriors have responded well after a big loss. Specifically, coming off a road loss as a favorite of margin of at least ten or more. In their last 19 games they are 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS. This year they responded in this role by beating the Suns by 25, Rockets by 4 and Cavs by 34. They are 9-0 SU/ATS in a b2b in this spot.

    A particular spot that I am fond of is when team is on the road coming off a loss as a favorite; playing a team coming off a win as a home dog. In the last five years, 39-9 SU and 37-8-3 ATS. 7-2 SU/ATS this season, with both losses being dogs. Favs in this spot are 28-3 SU and 25-4-2.

    Now we have the line movement, which putting me off a bit. It opens at -5, I grabbed it at -4.5 this morning and now it's -3.5? Is the majority bets on the Warriors so far? Why am I getting the sense Clippers upset a lot bettors tonight, including myself. And with the spots I included above, while they hit historically at a high rate and even this season, they do lose as noted.

  2. #2
    deepball
    deepball's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-15
    Posts: 26
    Betpoints: 801

    Usually if sharps like the underdog and going against public team, they wait right until tipoff to get the best number, and thats where it usually drops big. If its sharps pounding clippers why would they bet so early?

  3. #3
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 93,973
    Betpoints: 7345

    Quote Originally Posted by deepball View Post
    Usually if sharps like the underdog and going against public team, they wait right until tipoff to get the best number, and thats where it usually drops big. If its sharps pounding clippers why would they bet so early?
    Cause they got 5. It's a lot of points to lay.

  4. #4
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    I have to leave town so not much time. Let me say that unsophisticated lines have GS winning by about 5 points. As we get more sophisticated, however, the game becomes much closer.

    I have a forecast that equates to the Clippers winning this game by 3 points with a total of nearly 119 points. This is a sharp, up to date, dynamic line, whether it is correct tonight or not.

    Last night I felt GS was favored by far too many points and actually had them beating Portland by less than half of a point, basically a pick em.

    Many bettors were correct last night and they rubbed it in on the court. Some of those bettors are emboldened now and coming back with the Clippers.

    This is the reason you see the movement you see but there is support for certain around 3 points…the public is voracious.

    Good Luck whatever your play.


  5. #5
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I have to leave town so not much time. Let me say that unsophisticated lines have GS winning by about 5 points. As we get more sophisticated, however, the game becomes much closer.

    I have a forecast that equates to the Clippers winning this game by 3 points with a total of nearly 119 points. This is a sharp, up to date, dynamic line, whether it is correct tonight or not.

    Last night I felt GS was favored by far too many points and actually had them beating Portland by less than half of a point, basically a pick em.

    Many bettors were correct last night and they rubbed it in on the court. Some of those bettors are emboldened now and coming back with the Clippers.

    This is the reason you see the movement you see but there is support for certain around 3 points…the public is voracious.

    Good Luck whatever your play.

    I was worried you would say something like this...thanks for the insight, KVB

  6. #6
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Warriors or no play

    percentage play

  7. #7
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    No griffin no chance, especially not after last night thrashing.

  8. #8
    italianbandit
    italianbandit's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-11
    Posts: 2,622
    Betpoints: 2761

    Keep it simple JMon, GS 1q. Good luck.

  9. #9
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    I really thought about buying out and swallowing the juice. But I am situational capper and if I buy out I have nothing to stand for win or lose.

    INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 550.00 win 500.00
    507 Warriors -4½ (-110) risk 550.00 win 500.00 (NBA)
    02/20/16 11:27:07
    #35366536

  10. #10
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    I also think...Iowa St no chance for B12 and losers of 4 of 6 are giving up too many points here. They will do enough to win.

    INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 440.00 win 400.00
    619 TCU +17½ (-110) risk 440.00 win 400.00 (NCAA Men)
    02/20/16 11:28:08
    #35366557

  11. #11
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by italianbandit View Post
    Keep it simple JMon, GS 1q. Good luck.
    gl buddy...

  12. #12
    FortySix
    FortySix's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-18-14
    Posts: 134
    Betpoints: 2308

    GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.

  13. #13
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    Quote Originally Posted by FortySix View Post
    GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.
    Paul will pretty much be on the court every minute that Curry is. Curry rolls off too many screen for Paul to be able to check him 1 on 1. You have to guard curry as a team and Clippers don't have the right team philosophy to contain him.

  14. #14
    Don_Omarion
    Goals are set! +100 Units
    Don_Omarion's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-15
    Posts: 2,633
    Betpoints: 1292

    with you on GSW , good luck JMon

  15. #15
    kidcudi92
    W and Based Poster
    kidcudi92's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-14-11
    Posts: 15,434
    Betpoints: 1679

    warriors for me

  16. #16
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by FortySix View Post
    GL JMon. I like the Warriors as well tonight. Clippers did well against the Spurs but lets not forget the Spurs had no Leonard who is their best defensive player. Warriors don't play D but neither do the Clippers. Once CP3 comes off the court for a rest, who is going to mark Curry? Enough said, I believe Warriors roll tonight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Don_Omarion View Post
    with you on GSW , good luck JMon
    Quote Originally Posted by kidcudi92 View Post
    warriors for me
    Let's gets this one guys. A bit on edge here.

  17. #17
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Paul will pretty much be on the court every minute that Curry is. Curry rolls off too many screen for Paul to be able to check him 1 on 1. You have to guard curry as a team and Clippers don't have the right team philosophy to contain him.
    Goat you riding?

  18. #18
    DigBick86
    Update your status
    DigBick86's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-10
    Posts: 1,931
    Betpoints: 6432

    with you on this my big bet tonight WARRIORS -4

  19. #19
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by DigBick86 View Post
    with you on this my big bet tonight WARRIORS -4
    gl....I hope we are not doing Don's avatar after the game.

  20. #20
    PrinceD
    PrinceD's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-08-15
    Posts: 388
    Betpoints: 1844

    OVER is the play here

  21. #21
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,592
    Betpoints: 10218

    Pounded Warriors 1st qtr, hopefully then I can sit back and enjoy the rest of game

  22. #22
    Seaweed
    Update your status
    Seaweed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-12
    Posts: 26,287
    Betpoints: 6952

    Whole board on Warriors LOL

  23. #23
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,592
    Betpoints: 10218

    Quote Originally Posted by Seaweed View Post
    Whole board on Warriors LOL
    I like warriors 1st quarter, then grabbing some clippers double digits live in play....

  24. #24
    smitch124
    smitch124's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-19-08
    Posts: 12,564
    Betpoints: 1547

    Bogut is out, Warriors very thin in the post tonight.

  25. #25
    louielouie
    louielouie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-06-13
    Posts: 3,149
    Betpoints: 552

    riding clips plus five and ml

  26. #26
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    crazy or what? taking under 228 here gl j mon

  27. #27
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by Seaweed View Post
    Whole board on Warriors LOL
    Did you really find the time to post in my thread, with negative BS?

  28. #28
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    crazy or what? taking under 228 here gl j mon
    I lean under....you see the over by large in the first half...under 2H

  29. #29
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Last edited by JMon; 02-20-16 at 07:50 PM.

  30. #30
    Russian Rocket
    Kleptoman
    Russian Rocket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-02-12
    Posts: 43,910
    Betpoints: 533

    I took Clips plus five earlier today for a small play

    ...and since I don't bet much baskets, the possibility of burial is pretty high.




    good luck
    Last edited by Russian Rocket; 02-20-16 at 08:02 PM.

  31. #31
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    I took Clips plus five earlier today for a small play

    ...the possibility of burial is pretty high though






    good luck
    4
    shame on you rocket and no vid?

  32. #32
    Russian Rocket
    Kleptoman
    Russian Rocket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-02-12
    Posts: 43,910
    Betpoints: 533

    the vid is there bud...I do agree about the shame part though

  33. #33
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
    JMon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-11-09
    Posts: 9,800
    Betpoints: 10742

    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    the vid is there bud...I do agree about the shame part though
    asking me to sign in...

  34. #34
    Russian Rocket
    Kleptoman
    Russian Rocket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-02-12
    Posts: 43,910
    Betpoints: 533

    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    asking me to sign in...

  35. #35
    intermission
    intermission's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-12-15
    Posts: 2,499
    Betpoints: 7120

    Good luck man. I also got this bet and had curry over 8.5 points 1st quarter...he got two fouls and subbed out with 7 points

12 Last
Top