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What is a reasonable odds for Trump to be Rep. Nominee?
Trump has gone from +500 to +300 to +200 and is now at +150 to be republican nominee.
You know what they say in the stock market, the trend is your friend.
What do you guys think is a fair odds on Trump to be republican nominee? I would say -200, he is basically leading every poll and this could be over quickly.
Anything that is +100 and better is worth it at this point. Seems very probable he will be the nominee.
that's about right.
this is because we still don't know how large the anti-Trump wing is.
As long as Trump isn't winning/polling over 50% there is still game
for non-Trump to win nomination. Most likely that would be Rubio they
will mark as the one to consolidate behind.
he was around +4000 not long ago and people said Vegas knows every time.Originally Posted by Jaug
Trump has gone from +500 to +300 to +200 and is now at +150 to be republican nominee.
You know what they say in the stock market, the trend is your friend.
What do you guys think is a fair odds on Trump to be republican nominee? I would say -200, he is basically leading every poll and this could be over quickly.
At this point, the true value on Trump is gone
I would take Rubio as his value is still high
I can't see anyone other than Rubio or Trump winning, value on Trump is down, value on Rubio is up
Take Rubio at best price you can find him
I would rather Hilary at -195 than Trump at +150
Trump is +150 to be rep nominee, I dont think its time to talk about next president yet.
Perhaps you don't understand the purpose of the future market numbers. Vegas isn't trying to predict a winner with the spread, moneylines, and future bets.
Oddsmakers and bookmakers have a different job than that.
You say Vegas was wrong, but at the time, they may have been the getting action they needed where they wanted it.
Because the line has moved so much, one could say they made an error and were wrong, but that fails to appreciate the dynamics of this marketplace. It's like saying a live ine is wrong, well after it's been posted and removed.
This is a moving target over many months. There is little reason to believe bookmakers are behind in their movements. Trump hasn't locked it up yet, but the people may think he has. This could be a problem if he doesn't get it.
+200 if you can get it
I know how and why lines move believe me.Perhaps you don't understand the purpose of the future market numbers. Vegas isn't trying to predict a winner with the spread, moneylines, and future bets.
Oddsmakers and bookmakers have a different job than that.
You say Vegas was wrong, but at the time, they may have been the getting action they needed where they wanted it.
Because the line has moved so much, one could say they made an error and were wrong, but that fails to appreciate the dynamics of this marketplace. It's like saying a live ine is wrong, well after it's been posted and removed.
This is a moving target over many months. There is little reason to believe bookmakers are behind in their movements. Trump hasn't locked it up yet, but the people may think he has. This could be a problem if he doesn't get it.
I was trying to make a point in the simplest way possible.
Yeah, Trump came on strong. I can only imagine the establishment money that went on guys like Jeb Bush early on and again when prices got "better." That's all take for the books at this point.
What are odds on Romney? I can see him swooping in and getting nomination. Republican candidates right now are a collection of nobodies.
There are no odds in Vegas on elections it is illegal so very irrelevantPerhaps you don't understand the purpose of the future market numbers. Vegas isn't trying to predict a winner with the spread, moneylines, and future bets.
Oddsmakers and bookmakers have a different job than that.
You say Vegas was wrong, but at the time, they may have been the getting action they needed where they wanted it.
Because the line has moved so much, one could say they made an error and were wrong, but that fails to appreciate the dynamics of this marketplace. It's like saying a live ine is wrong, well after it's been posted and removed.
This is a moving target over many months. There is little reason to believe bookmakers are behind in their movements. Trump hasn't locked it up yet, but the people may think he has. This could be a problem if he doesn't get it.
Trump2016
True, but Vegas being used to mean the oddsmakers and now the bookmakers in general...as it so often does at SBR.
Real sports odds are found offshore only not Las Vegas as they mirror those outlets on all sports
Down to +120 now. Trump is going down down.. like nelly
Perhaps you don't understand the purpose of the future market numbers. Vegas isn't trying to predict a winner with the spread, moneylines, and future bets.
Oddsmakers and bookmakers have a different job than that.
You say Vegas was wrong, but at the time, they may have been the getting action they needed where they wanted it.
Because the line has moved so much, one could say they made an error and were wrong, but that fails to appreciate the dynamics of this marketplace. It's like saying a live ine is wrong, well after it's been posted and removed.
This is a moving target over many months. There is little reason to believe bookmakers are behind in their movements. Trump hasn't locked it up yet, but the people may think he has. This could be a problem if he doesn't get it.
KVB, Dwight doesn't understand very much. but he is a good egg, he simply has some problems with getting the point and most of the time somebody like you comes along and helps him out. and you help him out with real info some people ridicule him.
thanks
Is that you dwight, I know you are living in a third world country and that photo looked a little iffy? So is that you? You should probably test the depth of the water before jumping. You can get hurt, again here is somebody trying to help you. Oh you're a silly duck.
Where can we bet Trump Not to win?
Bookmaker has it -139 NO
This.
Now Donald "D-bag" Trump is down to +100. This is going exactly according to plan.
The ONLY two candidates that I think have a shot are Rubio and Kasich. Everyone else has ZERO chance. Cruz is plummeting. If he loses Iowa (which it looks like he will), he's finished. Too much negativity on him. Bush and Christie just can't get steam.
Rubio has a shot BUT he needs a strong finish in NH and he needs the candidates to drop out of this race SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. The sooner a guy like Rubio or Kasich can get this in a one-on-one matchup, the better the chances that the supporters of those drop out file behind them. Remember, Trump is not polling at more than 35% in many polls. Eventually in a one-on-one, he's gonna have to get over 50. But if Trump rolls through the first 4 states, chances are the republican establishment put their support behind him and the dominos fall.
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