1. 01-23-16 09:06 PM #1
    stevenash
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    This trend has been pretty much automatic for me all season.

    Just hit my fifth straight betting this trend (I would have written it up, but I was multi-tasking with 18" of snow and a car and a SUV to dig out.)

    And it's simple.

    The 'under' has been covering (with ease) when two NBA teams meet on the back end of a back to back.

    I posted the Hawks / Kings game the other night, the under there was a no doubter.
    Tonight the Knicks were on the back end of a back to backer, and the Hornets were as well.
    Bottom line, another no doubter as Charlotte wins 97-84 (181, total closed at 201.5)

    What had me scratching my head was an hour before tip the total was 198 flat and got bet up 3.5 points before tip.
    Go figure?

    When I spot the next occurrence when two teams hook up and both are playing for the 2nd time in consecutive night I'll post it, but Holy Mother of God this under trend has been gold lately.
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  2. 01-25-16 07:02 AM #2
    Can U Tank It
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    sounds good- thanks. i think maybe feb 6 is next opportunity
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  3. 01-25-16 08:28 AM #3
    Dan Kelly
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    5 straight is coincidence.

    Since the start of the 13-14 NBA season, both teams on 2nd game of 'Back to Back', the total is 134-105-2 O/U/P (not considering OT's, the totals are 120-119 O/U - some handicappers take out the "luck factor" of OT, especially when looking for OVERS).
    If, in that situation, the road team is on the 2nd or 3rd game of the road trip, then you go 31-40 O/U, not counting OT's (33-38 nominally). Considering the situation, that sample size is nearly statistically significant.

    If you are going to bet trends the sample size has to be large enough to be statistically valid.

    BoL
    Last edited by Dan Kelly; 01-25-16 at 08:58 AM.
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  4. 01-25-16 09:24 AM #4
    Seaweed
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    Dan kelly wow

    Post of year
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  5. 01-25-16 10:50 AM #5
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seaweed View Post
    Dan kelly wow

    Post of year
    Agreed. Dan, I've never seen you before, but please keep posting shit like that, for all sports, frequently!
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  6. 01-25-16 12:20 PM #6
    Dan Kelly
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    The most important thing to remember about trend betting is that it is just one more weapon in your handicapping arsenal, but you shouldn't bet trends unless other important factors line up on the same side.

    And NEVER FORGET = anything can happen. The most important aspect to sports betting is money management. I recommend the Kelly Criterion (no relation) ... It is really very simple =
    a good bet is 1% of your bankroll, a great bet is 3% of your bankroll
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

    These are the factors I start with for every bet =
    News & Injuries
    New & Old

    Past Performance
    Road / Home
    By the line
    By the total
    Recent
    Rest Situation
    Travel Situation
    v. Quality of Opp
    In/Out Conf/Div

    FOCUS
    Revenge
    Recent games
    Rivalry
    History
    Next Opponent

    Line Movement
    Referees

    http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pag...signments.html

    BoL
    Last edited by Dan Kelly; 01-25-16 at 12:28 PM.
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  7. 01-25-16 05:31 PM #7
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Kelly View Post
    5 straight is coincidence.

    Since the start of the 13-14 NBA season, both teams on 2nd game of 'Back to Back', the total is 134-105-2 O/U/P (not considering OT's, the totals are 120-119 O/U - some handicappers take out the "luck factor" of OT, especially when looking for OVERS).
    If, in that situation, the road team is on the 2nd or 3rd game of the road trip, then you go 31-40 O/U, not counting OT's (33-38 nominally). Considering the situation, that sample size is nearly statistically significant.

    If you are going to bet trends the sample size has to be large enough to be statistically valid.

    BoL

    Dan, you are talking to a math geek who makes a living as an I/T Operations Analyst.
    I work for a life insurance company, I can bore you into a coma about actuaries, statistics, variance, etc. etc. etc.
    Believe me, I know what you are saying.

    My point being the under has been hitting for me at an alarming rate recently, not that it's going to win, day in, day out.

    p.s. there is no such thing as a coincidence by the way.
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  8. 01-25-16 05:35 PM #8
    tatddy
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    All due respect to Dan I'm much more interested in relative, recent form and "coincidences" than anything antiquated that's built into the line anyway.

    Thanks Nash
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  9. 01-25-16 05:50 PM #9
    Chi_archie
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    automatic

    all season long
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  10. 01-26-16 10:07 AM #10
    Dan Kelly
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    Here are the remaining games this NBA season when both teams are on the 2nd game of a Back to Back.
    Hope it helps.

    BoL

    Road Home
    Mo 2/1/16 20:00 BB3in4 Dal Atl BB
    Sa 2/6/16 19:00 BB3in4 Was Cha BB3in4
    Sa 2/6/16 19:30 BB3in4 Brk Phi BB3in4
    Sa 2/6/16 19:00 BB3in4 Dal Mem BB
    Mo 2/8/16 20:00 BB3in4 Orl Atl BB3in4
    Sa 2/20/16 19:30 BB Mil Atl BB
    Sa 2/20/16 19:30 BB Was Mia BB
    Sa 2/20/16 19:00 BB NYK Min BB
    Mo 2/22/16 19:00 BB3in4 Det Cle BB
    Mo 2/29/16 19:00 BB3in4 Ind Cle BB3in4
    Mo 2/29/16 19:00 BB3in4 Phi Was BB3in4
    We 3/2/16 19:00 BB Chi Orl BB3in4
    Th 3/3/16 19:00 BB SAS NOP BB
    Sa 3/5/16 19:00 BB3in4 Bos Cle BB
    Sa 3/5/16 19:00 BB3in4 Ind Was BB3in4
    Sa 3/5/16 19:00 BB Brk Min BB3in4
    Tu 3/8/16 19:00 BB3in4 SAS Min BB4in5
    Sa 3/12/16 19:00 BB3in4 Hou Cha BB3in4
    Sa 3/12/16 19:00 BB3in4 Det Phi BB3in4
    Sa 3/12/16 19:30 BB Orl Por BB
    Su 3/13/16 18:00 BB Ind Atl BB3in4
    Mo 3/14/16 19:00 BB Cle Uta BB3in4
    Mo 3/21/16 19:30 BB3in4 Orl Bos BB3in4
    Th 3/24/16 19:30 BB3in4 Chi NYK BB
    Th 3/24/16 19:30 BB Por LAC BB
    Sa 3/26/16 19:30 BB3in4 Atl Det BB3in4
    Sa 3/26/16 19:30 BB Cha Mil BB3in4
    Mo 3/28/16 19:00 BB3in4 Dal Den BB3in4
    Th 3/31/16 19:00 BB4in5 Den NOP BB3in4
    We 4/6/16 19:00 BB3in4 OkC Por BB4in5
    We 4/6/16 19:30 BB3in4 LAC LAL BB3in4
    Mo 4/11/16 19:00 BB3in4 Mil Orl BB3in4
    Mo 4/11/16 19:30 BB3in4 Was Brk BB3in4
    Mo 4/11/16 19:00 BB3in4 Dal Uta BB3in4
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  11. 01-26-16 10:14 AM #11
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    automatic

    all season long


    Archayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!!!
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  12. 01-26-16 10:30 AM #12
    jjgold
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    anytime threads like this are started watch out

    anyway good work Nashy
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  13. 01-26-16 10:39 AM #13
    bambambegelow
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    losing bet in the long run...losing via vigs. books always adjust line even if there is a working trend and eventually it will converge to 50%

    someone said that under is money in the bank when a there is a road trip with a team where they play 4 games in 5 nights and the 4th game on the 5th night is an automatic under. i watched a guy go on a 14-2 run betting those unders before closing the season 21-20. But he lost a shit ton because when he went 14-2 he was betting smaller amounts and by then he thought he found the holy grail and started betting 5x the normal amount. he got buried when the season finished 21-20
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  14. 01-26-16 06:43 PM #14
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by bambambegelow View Post
    losing bet in the long run...losing via vigs. books always adjust line even if there is a working trend and eventually it will converge to 50%

    someone said that under is money in the bank when a there is a road trip with a team where they play 4 games in 5 nights and the 4th game on the 5th night is an automatic under. i watched a guy go on a 14-2 run betting those unders before closing the season 21-20. But he lost a shit ton because when he went 14-2 he was betting smaller amounts and by then he thought he found the holy grail and started betting 5x the normal amount. he got buried when the season finished 21-20
    everything comes back to around 50%

    Only guys that win are guys that beat numbers/closers
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  15. 01-26-16 09:11 PM #15
    stevenash
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    Trick to betting trends is knowing when to get on, and more importantly knowing when to get off.
    I'm still on this trend, I'll know when to get off it, now is not the time,
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