1. 01-23-16 05:32 PM #1
    El Nino
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    Vegas with a Position on Championship Games?

    Does anyone honestly think Vegas hasn't taken a position on the AFC/NFC Championship games? I don't want Money Shotter tin foil hat discussion, but your honest opinion. It's fairly obvious if you've taken the pulse of Vegas/ESPN/Offshore bettors/man on the street that everyone is on New England and Carolina. Both are -3 and have pretty much been there since they opened. Is there that much money on Denver and Arizona to offset the New England/Carolina fav money? I can't see both favorites covering. Vegas and offshore would get buried.
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  2. 01-23-16 05:34 PM #2
    MoneyLineDawg
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    I saw an article that said 85% of money on New England....they said that sharps pounded Denver when it went up to 3.5 but money was fairly even at 3.5....So yes it looks like they are taking Denver here
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  3. 01-23-16 05:34 PM #3
    mikewlgm
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    88% of the money is on Pats according to SBR

    Vegas needs the broncos to win and the fact that the line hasn't moved with that much money on one side makes me wonder
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  4. 01-23-16 05:36 PM #4
    MoneyLineDawg
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    I'll take a home dog like Denver all day...Game should be a pick em when you dig deep
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  5. 01-23-16 05:40 PM #5
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    I saw an article that said 85% of money on New England....they said that sharps pounded Denver when it went up to 3.5 but money was fairly even at 3.5....So yes it looks like they are taking Denver here
    Yeah, New England seems to be the biggest public team based on any consensus #'s.Yes, I know they are not totally accurate. But, I am seeing 75%+ on all of them. MGM/Mirage the only big boy in Vegas hanging Denver +3.5 juiced at the moment.
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  6. 01-23-16 05:43 PM #6
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    I'll take a home dog like Denver all day...Game should be a pick em when you dig deep
    Everyone focused on Manning vs. Brady. Manning threw 1 TD in Denver all season. He hasn't been leading this team to victory all season. The defense and running game has. It's funny to say, but this Denver team with Manning is similar to the Tebow led Denver team. I could easily see this as a 19-17 type game.
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  7. 01-23-16 05:45 PM #7
    jjgold
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    Mainly all Pats

    Other game closer
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  8. 01-23-16 05:50 PM #8
    BIGDAY
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    Pats could crush em....
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  9. 01-23-16 05:51 PM #9
    The Giant
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    Quit mind fukking yourself and just pick a winner.
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  10. 01-23-16 05:55 PM #10
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Quit mind fukking yourself and just pick a winner.
    On a random NHL or MLB game...no problem. On one of the biggest volume weekends of the NFL season. I'd rather get a feel for what the industry is up to.
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  11. 01-23-16 06:02 PM #11
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    On a random NHL or MLB game...no problem. On one of the biggest volume weekends of the NFL season. I'd rather get a feel for what the industry is up to.
    If that's your angle, Denver is the play.

    If you believe Belichick and Brady want to make history, New England is the play.

    Too many variables in a game with everything at stake. Just sit back and enjoy, this game has live betting written all over it.
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  12. 01-23-16 06:04 PM #12
    daneblazer
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    Fairly sure they want to send the great forehead out with a bang. People burned out on the patriots. NFC I don't think they really care. Cam makes for a good villain... Both should be pretty good games
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  13. 01-23-16 06:42 PM #13
    Renegades
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    watch this be a weird fricking game where NE wins by 1 or 2
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  14. 01-23-16 07:02 PM #14
    BigdaddyQH
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    NONE of you in here have the foggiest idea how Vegas operates. You idiots are not even close. It does not matter how many players wager. What matters is the amount of money that is wagered on each team. You guys will buy anything. That is why NONE of you have won jack s**t over your lifetime gaming. You believe any story that you read or hear because you are so bad when it comes to gambling, you have no clue. Do you honestly think that shops are going to be honest with idiots like yourselves? Vegas will make big money because suckers will lose their arses on all of the props.
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  15. 01-23-16 07:25 PM #15
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    MGM/Mirage the only big boy in Vegas hanging Denver +3.5 juiced at the moment.
    This tells me that despite taking a clear position on Denver, they got uncomfortable with the amount of money on New England. I doubt they really want the 3.5 to even the money, but they've got a comfort level with dollar disparity and they've hit it.
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  16. 01-23-16 07:35 PM #16
    Grits n' Gravy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    NONE of you in here have the foggiest idea how Vegas operates. You idiots are not even close. It does not matter how many players wager. What matters is the amount of money that is wagered on each team. You guys will buy anything. That is why NONE of you have won jack s**t over your lifetime gaming. You believe any story that you read or hear because you are so bad when it comes to gambling, you have no clue. Do you honestly think that shops are going to be honest with idiots like yourselves? Vegas will make big money because suckers will lose their arses on all of the props.

    You are the one with no clue about anything. The fact that you think casinos really sweat the sports book is hilarious. The fact that you think big money is made off props is even more hilarious. Casinos just want bodies in the door to play slots and tables. Big sporting weekends are really just table game holidays. If casino x loses both sides of games tomorrow the slot win alone will cover it.

    Please stick to what you know....jerking off into a sock and eating jello.

    The only position casinos took was opening both games at 3. In hindsight they would have opened Pats at 3.5 but Denver with Manning has been a traditional public play and I don't think they anticipated that many people jumping to lay a fg on road.
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  17. 01-23-16 08:31 PM #17
    Ra77er
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    Well what do the NFL fans want to see?

    If numbers shown are accurate the betting marketplace wants to see NE/CAR. Why not let us have it? I'm sure they can get plenty back on the big game if truly need be.

    Do you guys really want to see Den/Arz or Den/Car? I'm sure the fans from there do and the people that have tremendous respect for Peyton and what he has done for the league but I wanna see a competitive super bowl personally. I am a square side to be sure though so keep that in mind.
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  18. 01-23-16 08:48 PM #18
    sweethook
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    games a coin flip .. 1 unit play is all it is . dont get hurt
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  19. 01-23-16 08:48 PM #19
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ra77er View Post
    Well what do the NFL fans want to see?

    If numbers shown are accurate the betting marketplace wants to see NE/CAR. Why not let us have it? I'm sure they can get plenty back on the big game if truly need be.

    Do you guys really want to see Den/Arz or Den/Car? I'm sure the fans from there do and the people that have tremendous respect for Peyton and what he has done for the league but I wanna see a competitive super bowl personally. I am a square side to be sure though so keep that in mind.
    I want to see any two teams as long as Carolina is not involved
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  20. 01-23-16 08:50 PM #20
    Ra77er
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    POOLSIDE Im sorry your Hawks lost man. They have had great success and will continue to for many years.
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  21. 01-23-16 09:50 PM #21
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ra77er View Post
    POOLSIDE Im sorry your Hawks lost man. They have had great success and will continue to for many years.
    I appreciate the kind words, but I'm a Raiders fan haha. I was a Hawks fan last week though! Now if you want to send some thoughts my way for the last decade and a half of the Raiders' ineptitude, I'll be happy to accept them.

    My main reason for not wanting Carolina in the Bowl is because I've got futures on Arizona vs Denver and Arizona vs New England haha
    Last edited by POOLSIDE; 01-23-16 at 10:00 PM.
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  22. 01-23-16 09:57 PM #22
    gambler705
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    NONE of you in here have the foggiest idea how Vegas operates. You idiots are not even close. It does not matter how many players wager. What matters is the amount of money that is wagered on each team. You guys will buy anything. That is why NONE of you have won jack s**t over your lifetime gaming. You believe any story that you read or hear because you are so bad when it comes to gambling, you have no clue. Do you honestly think that shops are going to be honest with idiots like yourselves? Vegas will make big money because suckers will lose their arses on all of the props.
    Here we go again... "nobody knows nothing" blah blah, yet another condescending post from the almighty Barry. For a 70 year old man u sure run your mouth like a big tough guy around here pretty often. You have no idea who here has won what in their lifetime gambling, absolutely no clue, yet you are constantly calling everyone here air bettors & losers and idiots. Why is that Barry?
    Last edited by gambler705; 01-23-16 at 10:01 PM.
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  23. 01-23-16 10:05 PM #23
    lakerboy
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    Anyone with a brain knows mile high is bill and Tom's nightmare house.
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  24. 01-23-16 10:19 PM #24
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Does anyone honestly think Vegas hasn't taken a position on the AFC/NFC Championship games? I don't want Money Shotter tin foil hat discussion, but your honest opinion. It's fairly obvious if you've taken the pulse of Vegas/ESPN/Offshore bettors/man on the street that everyone is on New England and Carolina. Both are -3 and have pretty much been there since they opened. Is there that much money on Denver and Arizona to offset the New England/Carolina fav money? I can't see both favorites covering. Vegas and offshore would get buried.
    EL why you gotta call me out like that?

    Well... 2 ways to look at this. Martingale the 2 favs... or 2 underdogs. Could you see New England VS Carolina in the Super Bowl? Both great teams... 1 probably going to end up there.. right? Then Martingale -3 each. First game wins... BOOM... you're done. Enjoy the $

    Could you see Denver or Arizona in the Super Bowl? Then take both doggies. Just like you said... Vegas might get buried if both favorites win.

    I can't see both dogs winning. I can't see both favorites winning. Martingale approach... and don't mind fuk this too much like The Giant said.

    But for anyone who's trying to cash in both without Martingale approach... it's not worth it. Waste of time.
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  25. 01-23-16 10:20 PM #25
    jjgold
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    I've had steaks with a few major line managers/sports book directors in Las Vegas Nevada and I can tell you if New England patriots win on the money line they will get hurt bad
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  26. 01-23-16 10:29 PM #26
    Martinr
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    Pinnacle lines right now (15 hours b4 KO)
    NE -3 @1.961
    DE +3 @1.943

    Pinnacle now wants Patriot money at -3 to even the book.
    Pinnacle won't take a "position". They'll just let weight of money determine the line.
    This is a 102.5% book with higher limits than most and their lines are pretty sharp.

    There's also good money on the Total:
    O44.5 @1.909
    U44.5 @2.000
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  27. 01-23-16 10:33 PM #27
    lakerboy
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    If ne loses all squares will chase with carolina.
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  28. 01-23-16 10:36 PM #28
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Well if your into conspiracy it goes 2 ways. Vegas is one powerful entity however the other is the networks which basically own the Nfl. It's their best interest to have Panthers vs Pats in big gm I believe. Let's break it down...

    If Zona wins you automatically have 2 old white qb's and Zona not exactly a Nfl powerhouse brand either.

    If Donkeys win sure you get the Manning curtain call moment but seriously do the networks wanna risk this old heap pile that can't get it up anymore in their most important gm. with the storyline being can he save his lousy playoff legacy in his last chance?

    Cam seems destined this season sure Carolina not a huge draw or overwhelming important franchise either by any stretch but Cam provides storylines and gets people interested. Hes young , black, and let's not forget his moniker "Superman". Now what better storyline could the networks dream of than Superman taking down the ultimate villains (Brady/Beli) the idiot public thinks are evil cheaters and justice must be served.

    Yeah I know a bit DC comics but seriously does anyone with a brain take sports seriously these days and not realize much is theatre production especially Nfl and nba? Panthers vs Pats / Good vs Evil and continue hyping the new age black QB on the horizon.

    End of the day if Vegas takes it in the crapper tomorrow we've seen it before just stay far clear of heavy pub faves next 2/3 days they always recover quick lol
    Last edited by R.P. McMurphy; 01-23-16 at 10:46 PM.
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  29. 01-23-16 10:37 PM #29
    TheLock
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    If you want a stress free Sunday just play both dogs on the money line for 1 unit each.

    Worst case scenario is you lose 2 units. Big friggin deal.

    If one dog wins you make money.

    Both dogs win and its wine and roses.

    Me personally, I have Broncos +3 +100 and Cardinals +3 -105 for 2 units each. I want some stress tomorrow.
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  30. 01-23-16 10:42 PM #30
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Now speaking in terms of "reality" if you like the dogs so much but feeling your corn hole pucker at thought of betting them at current price well then....just wait for live it's almost certain both will be down at some point and you get better #
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  31. 01-23-16 10:46 PM #31
    MoneyLineDawg
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    I don't think Denver Carolina is a bad matchup for the networks at all....Cam and the new guard of QBs vs Manning's curtain call as the first big QB of the last generation

    Also if Denver wins tomorrow, the whole Manning old and garbage thing will be gone...He will have to play Atleast decent for Denver to have a chance

    Patriots and Panthers is ideal but I don't think any of the matchups are bad
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  32. 01-23-16 10:55 PM #32
    lakerboy
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    Pats/cards is the best matchup.
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  33. 01-23-16 11:02 PM #33
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Hear ya Mld how ya been bro? I agree Donko win would not be coffin nail for networks but certainly risky for a blowout SB. IF Denver wins tomorrow it won't be due to some throwback 4 touch no pick performance by Manning. Just not sure the D is up for it enough honestly with Harris health and if they drop into zone Brady will carve them up.

    Defense is great but has been exposed twice by Pittsburgh alone just recently and certainly not all time great like '85 Bears or 2000 Balty. This D CAN be moved on and does have weaknesses unlike those! Aside from Roethlisberg not like they have faced the most elite qb's or offenses like they will get tomorrow and can Denver's offense who generally settles for 3 hang if defense struggles? I highly doubt it. Agree though Zona without question the black sheep of the 4. Just personally think it makes most sense and better storylines with 2 best teams for selling points and better gm in SB that being NE and Carolina.

    New superman vs batman around corner as well so Hollywood will even be throwing millions at this matchup. We shall see!
    Last edited by R.P. McMurphy; 01-23-16 at 11:08 PM.
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  34. 01-23-16 11:04 PM #34
    TheMoneyShot
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    Honestly... whoever wins... all good match ups for the Super Bowl

    Only match up that would suck for me... Arizona VS New England. Just seems boring as fuk.

    I agree.. powerhouse match up... Carolina VS New England.
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  35. 01-23-16 11:04 PM #35
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    NONE of you in here have the foggiest idea how Vegas operates. You idiots are not even close. It does not matter how many players wager. What matters is the amount of money that is wagered on each team. You guys will buy anything. That is why NONE of you have won jack s**t over your lifetime gaming. You believe any story that you read or hear because you are so bad when it comes to gambling, you have no clue. Do you honestly think that shops are going to be honest with idiots like yourselves? Vegas will make big money because suckers will lose their arses on all of the props.
    I have an idea that you are the most arrogant, rude, 50 cent bettor I've run across. STFU the adults are talking here, kiddo. I specifically mentioned enough money on Denver to outweigh the # of public bets on New England. I speak with $30K bettors in Vegas, clerks, and one guy who used to beard for Billy Walters. So, go back to that 50 cent grind and retroactively knowing everything. Clown.
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