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Also, if you cherry pick like this, you can make most games appear this way.
Most of the time, there will be sides and totals on both sides that beat the closer. Pick the loser and voila (except for the occasional time the spread/total comes into play).
Miami was absolutely the play in that game they tried to loseOriginally Posted by paco
I bet a ton of games over multiple sports, and while I haven't been doing it as long as you have, it's been 7 solid years of data.
I see basically zero advantage. It obviously doesn't *hurt*, per se. Just saying it's irrelevant. If we were having this discussion 10-15 years ago, maybe it would be more of an axiom. But it's not. Books have wised up, again, based on the large volume of "insider" info that's now available to everyone thanks to the Internet.
Unless you plan on betting literally every play in every sport -- the only way you could prove that beating the closing number is a long-term winner, and even then, it barely provides a significant advantage -- we're all cherry picking based on the plays we're making. As such, you should never assume that BTCL will or even can equate to any sort of profit in your own small, select portfolio. Combined with not being privy to any information that is also instantly available to everyone in the free world at the click of a button, and you get a stale, antiquated belief.
On the flip side, what if you were to bet the team right before gametime that the line moved against?
You would be getting the best line available for that side essentially too.....
Everyone can watch lines live. Everyone can get instant injury reports from beat writers on Twitter, Rotoworld, etc. The most valuable commodity in the world, as per Gordon Gekko, is information. When everyone has it, books have to move beyond the rudimentary, linear approach that drove lines in one direction or another up until the point where the Internet became mainstream not just in everyone's home, but also, everyone's pocket.
Steam plays hit at about a 55% clip long term, because they typically beat the closer.
It's not dumb luck that they win.
The markets are pretty efficient, meaning the closing line is efficient, and sharper than anything else you'd use as a barometer.
I just ran a query for all of 2015.
Steam plays were 4594-4033-171 this year. 53.25% and that's running below expectation.
That's not exactly blowing away the competition, yis -- especially, again, because no one bets every single play.
The tried and true adage for years and years here spewed by Justin7 and all of the other "experts" is that if you beat the closing number consistently, it meant something substantial. While that may have been the case in the past, it is becoming less and less important in today's gambling landscape. Philosophies evolve.
Edit.....
hitting over 53% is blowing away the competition...
http://contests.sportsbookreview.com...-contest-5161/
That is just to illustrate that over long term competitions, 53% is often good enough to win.
This next one I didn't win, but if I had hit 53%, I would've, because I put in the necessary volume.
http://contests.sportsbookreview.com...-contest-4258/
I agree
So let me get this straight: if you are somehow capable of placing a wager on every game in every sport (literally impossible), beat the closing number each time, and even then, only able to grind out a 53% run that's "often good enough" to win, that's a tried and true philosophy gamblers should swallow whole? LOL.
yes
I was on Indiana and got screwed. What else is new.
Indiana outplayed Duke in that game.
As Buck pointed out, Miami had about six thousand chances to either cover or win.
Washington State didn't exactly prove to be the better team in that matchup.
Hey, you're the one that keeps talking about it. I don't know why you keep bringing up beating the closing line when you discard any evidence that refutes or invalidates. your position.
Because it's constantly peddled by pros at SBR like it should be held in revered regard.
This is the best "evidence" you can come up with to support the theory that you can consistently turn a profit by BTCL? Hitting 53% by having a better closing number than literally every play on the board?
ok, there's a big difference between beating the closer and what I posted.
Line moves and beating the closer are two different things.
Nothing beats the closer 100% of the time. If you did beat it 100% of the time, you'd have better results.
Staying ahead of the market's moves usually beats the closer and will yield solid long term results.
If you want to look at how beating the closer does, I can post picks at close, just looking for the best possible line when compared to the closer. That would hit over 55%.
That way, 100% of the picks would be beating the closer, and often by quite a bit.
yeah that game was crazy, I had no read on that game and it literally could have went either way
This is true, but prior to the game I couldn't find a single reason to take Miami. I'm a Hurricane fan, alum, and used to work with the football program and knew they'd lose. Even went large on WSU but LT almost talked me out if it lol.
was surprised on how close the game was, but this Miami team has no heart
This is my exact thought. I always get confused when I see NC post about it because I never see anyone else talking about it.
Who are these Pros constantly telling you beating the closing number is important long term? I literally never see anyone talking about it. But I do agree with you, plus I believe the opening number is way more important than the closing number.
Justin7 used to talk about it when he worked for SBR, but he's been gone (under that handle, at least) for years. He posted occasionally using daringly since, but rarely posts stuff worth reading.
There are probably more posts by no coin telling everyone how beating the closing line is meaningless than there are threads from people "beating their chests" about beating the closer.
No offense to NC, but I have to agree with this. I always see these sarcastic posts about congrats in beating the closer despite the play losing and I'm left wondering who is he talking to? Like who is beating their chest for beating the closer? Lol
also people who beat their chest for being on the "right side" despite the play losing is just as bad, if not worse honestly.
yisman how do you beat the closer so often?
Getting a good number does matter.
A good percentage of lines set by bookies are sharp and you know this. Sharp as in they fall quite close to the opening line.
if you beat the closer and get the 'better #', you gotta realise that the public favors your side.
There are two types of lines. As mentioned above, sometimes the line is sharp and pretty accurate. At other times, the line is created to induce action of a side the books desire. More often than not these lines are not as accurate and quite lopsided at times. Public moves the line the way books want it to move (cos they don't give a shit)
Major Connecticut homer here and that includes Stags, UConn, Yale, etc. etc.
There were a few 2.5's before kickoff yesterday, I kept my eye on that the last 45 minutes.
Under was the play there, Diaco has instilled a great defense scheme here in Husky country.
More horseshit that experts try selling us gamblers on a regular basis -- especially in the college game.
I spent the first few years as a gambler making sure I got the best number possible, getting bets in early so that I could try and beat the closer, paying attention to line movement, etc. It doesn't really mean anything. Since I've unsubscribed to those theories I've been in the black way more than before. Again, I honestly believe the game-changer was allowing everyone access to real-time line movement and up-to-the-second injury information via the Internet.
That is a very good point. I also think a very important aspect is having a firm understanding of whatever the sport is to understand what the opening line should be, then comparing that with the actual opening number. That way one can know if a line is too high, too low, etc.
I get a kick out of some people who use the "beat the closing number"
Hypothetical
Cubs at home with Lester I like over Harvey on the road and Mets.
Overnight line opens at Cubs -127.
I like the Cubs in this spot but I want to wait a bit before wagering.
Lunch time at work I check the lines and Cubs are -119, word is some hedge fund whale that work on Wall Street dropped a five star dime bomb on the Mets, whatever, love the Cubs at -119. I bet it and lock it in.
Get home from work line is Cubs -125 at 5pm.
Game settles at -126 after yo-yo'ing back and forth between 5 and 7:00 pm between -125 and -127.
My -119 wager at 12:15 pm beat the closer by 7 hours.
Hope you cats hopped on some of that Pitt +5 and under 56 early.
Closed at +3 and 51.5.
Final: Navy 44, Pitt 28.
On the surface it doesn't seem to matter but I know I've won a lot of bets only because I beat the closer. It goes both ways.
Maybe people just remember the losers.
Regardless of what anyone says, I want the best number.
Classic case of no coin overthinking it, just going off on a tangent.
I do too -- who wouldn't -- but I'm not about to pretend I've won any sort of battle by getting it. It's not that simple.
Judging by your picks, maybe it would do you some good to think a little more.
Lol as if you have any room to talk.
I take it you haven't bothered looking in my NFL, CBB or NBA threads over the last few months, eh?
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