1. 10-12-15 08:56 PM #1
    dalogester
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    How much to hedge on jays series? Numbers guys check in.

    Ok, I know I will get bashed for being a degen and i know i deserve it but if you guys could give me some advice on how much i should hedge to minimize the losses i would greatly appreciate it.

    Prior to Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers series I bet $5,259.21 to win $2,237.96. (-235 odds)
    After game 1 I tilted and deposited $2,000 and bet on Blue jays to win game 2, naturally lost (2nd degen move).
    So I load up another $2,000 on Blue Jays to win Game 3 to win $1,428.57 and I won. So basically thus far I am down from these two graded bets $571.43 and have $3,428.57 in my account currently, with $5,259.21 still pending.

    I realize how incredibly lucky I got for Toronto to to win game 3 and 4 and even have a chance.. I feel like it would be incredibly irresponsible for me to not hedge at least some at this point.

    Looks like right now on 5Dimes the odds are +169 on texas, but i believe hamels might be starting and not gallardo so that line would probably change. not sure if in my favor or not.

    Thoughts? Do I hedge or Roll the Dice?
    Last edited by dalogester; 10-12-15 at 09:13 PM.
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  2. 10-12-15 09:00 PM #2
    dalogester
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    Oh also if I do hedge when do you guys think the number would be best to take for texas? Hour prior to game start?
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  3. 10-12-15 09:02 PM #3
    pattymayo
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    I'm confused
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  4. 10-12-15 09:04 PM #4
    Ra77er
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    I love betting the series and hedging each game for thousands of dollars
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    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: dmiles1021
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  5. 10-12-15 09:07 PM #5
    dalogester
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    I'm confused
    . $5259 blue jays win series bet pending at -235. Invested $4k more chasing basically and I got $3400 of that back. What's the right hedge number if I don't any to risk all $5259 on a one game win all scenario?
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  6. 10-12-15 09:13 PM #6
    lakerboy
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    Jays got it. Don't hedge anything. Hamels is +170. Nuff said.
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  7. 10-12-15 09:19 PM #7
    Ra77er
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    Possible kiss of death alert
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  8. 10-12-15 09:22 PM #8
    dalogester
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    I'm gonna need JJgold to check in on the matter to confirm to deny.
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  9. 10-12-15 09:46 PM #9
    jjgold
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    No need to hedge stick to your opinion I think it will be right
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  10. 10-12-15 10:53 PM #10
    byronbb
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    You have 5k on -235 and current odds are -178. So basically if you hedged out totally you would lose $538 betting $2776 at +170.
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  11. 10-12-15 11:21 PM #11
    ajasker
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    I wouldn't hedge. I know Jay's lost high ML first two games. Not happening again. Jay's at -170 close out series in game 5 and advance to ALCS.
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  12. 10-12-15 11:27 PM #12
    Plaza23
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    You should only hedge if you are going lock in a win.

    Since you bet Blue Jays at -235 to win the series, and the best Ranger price for game 5 is +169 there is no way to hedge that because you'd be taking a loss.

    If you are going to hedge, hedge in game if the Rangers get to double what you bet the Blue Jays for. If in play live goes to Rangers +450.

    I only hedge to lock in a win, and that usually if the price I'm getting is at least doublly better what I originally bet. I hate digging into profits by hedging but it is better than losing. It's basically insurance and piece of mind.
    Last edited by Plaza23; 10-12-15 at 11:33 PM.
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  13. 10-12-15 11:39 PM #13
    gauchojake
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    Let it ride
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  14. 10-12-15 11:52 PM #14
    PorkChop
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    Sit on your Jays; make the 'hedge' money available for live betting, and counter it live at the right time.
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  15. 10-13-15 12:11 AM #15
    Fthestockmarket
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    Yeah don't hedge a win into a loss. My question is how does 5dimes let you deposit 2k at a time? All they let me do is 500?
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  16. 10-13-15 12:15 AM #16
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Jays got it. Don't hedge anything. Hamels is +170. Nuff said.
    Wanna bet some points?
    That'll shut these troll up!
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  17. 10-13-15 12:35 AM #17
    I'm_Lucky
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    For now, let it ride, but keep a close eye tomorrow & Wed morning on the starting pitcher for Texas. I'm not entirely sold Hamels will get the nod for the game, even if that's what Texas management is currently saying.

    I think any competent manager would consider going with Gallardo in this situation, or at the very least, keep a short leash on Hamels with Gallardo to come in at the first sign of trouble. IMO, Toronto is way overpriced for this game and if anything, there is value with Texas. I would play the Jays for Game 5 if it was in the -120 to -130 range, but the current price is ridiculous.

    Personally, I would have liked Estrada to start this game on extreme short rest, but I think Stroman will be OK. The question will be if Stroman can keep his emotions in-check, with what will be the loudest crowd ever at the Roger's Centre, & settle in right away.

    IMO, if Gallardo starts Game 5, the right decision would be to hedge. However, with that said, if I was in your position & was told Gallardo is starting, I'd still let it ride... why? Cause as a lifelong Jays fan, I'm the type of person that follows my heart than my head in a do-or-die situation.

    Not sure if that helps, but whatever you do, best of luck!
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  18. 10-13-15 01:04 AM #18
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Jays got it. Don't hedge anything. Hamels is +170. Nuff said.
    why do you say this then have a thread on all in rangers? kinda a dick move
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  19. 10-13-15 01:10 AM #19
    Jayvegas420
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    Guy takea both sides & I still can't get a Bet outta him.
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  20. 10-13-15 02:00 AM #20
    champlain
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    don't hedge. the blue jays are the better team and that's why you made the bet in the first place. their offense is clicking and the last two games, the score should have been even more lopsided.
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  21. 10-13-15 02:07 AM #21
    JameisBrady
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Jays got it. Don't hedge anything. Hamels is +170. Nuff said.
    he was +170 last time and won.
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  22. 10-13-15 07:38 AM #22
    jose21_us
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    go big or go home kid.
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  23. 10-13-15 07:46 AM #23
    LT Profits
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    I would never hedge at less than a scalpable price. You layed -235, so since you will never get +236 or more on Texas, hedging is even more -EV than it usually is.
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  24. 10-13-15 08:57 AM #24
    goduke
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    might as well go for the trifecta in degenerate moves and let it ride.
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  25. 10-13-15 09:31 AM #25
    EmpireMaker
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    Quote Originally Posted by dalogester View Post
    Ok, I know I will get bashed for being a degen and i know i deserve it but if you guys could give me some advice on how much i should hedge to minimize the losses i would greatly appreciate it.

    Prior to Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers series I bet $5,259.21 to win $2,237.96. (-235 odds)
    After game 1 I tilted and deposited $2,000 and bet on Blue jays to win game 2, naturally lost (2nd degen move).
    So I load up another $2,000 on Blue Jays to win Game 3 to win $1,428.57 and I won. So basically thus far I am down from these two graded bets $571.43 and have $3,428.57 in my account currently, with $5,259.21 still pending.

    I realize how incredibly lucky I got for Toronto to to win game 3 and 4 and even have a chance.. I feel like it would be incredibly irresponsible for me to not hedge at least some at this point.

    Looks like right now on 5Dimes the odds are +169 on texas, but i believe hamels might be starting and not gallardo so that line would probably change. not sure if in my favor or not.

    Thoughts? Do I hedge or Roll the Dice?
    Quit gambling
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  26. 10-13-15 09:35 AM #26
    Seto
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I would never hedge at less than a scalpable price. You layed -235, so since you will never get +236 or more on Texas, hedging is even more -EV than it usually is.
    LT while in principle I 100% agree with you that hedging is always a bad move unless you have changed your mind on the series/game and now like the other side, it seems like OP isn't really keen on losing his 5 grand. I can understand someone wanting to hedge even if it's in theory a -EV move if they want to save an amount of money they feel they shouldn't have risked in the first place.
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  27. 10-13-15 09:42 AM #27
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seto View Post
    LT while in principle I 100% agree with you that hedging is always a bad move unless you have changed your mind on the series/game and now like the other side, it seems like OP isn't really keen on losing his 5 grand. I can understand someone wanting to hedge even if it's in theory a -EV move if they want to save an amount of money they feel they shouldn't have risked in the first place.
    I hear you, but my response would be why risk more than you are comfortable losing in the first place? But that is a separate issue aside from the hedging question.
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  28. 10-13-15 10:13 AM #28
    MickeyMan
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    Numbers guys check in on how to hedge at a worse price than you made the initial bet. Unreal.
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  29. 10-13-15 10:33 AM #29
    Seto
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I hear you, but my response would be why risk more than you are comfortable losing in the first place? But that is a separate issue aside from the hedging question.
    People don't always make reasonable decisions. If they're given a chance to backtrack sometimes it can be an acceptable idea even though in theory the hedge is a -EV move.

    Trust me, I hate hedges in most cases and people don't understand how bad a move it is in general. I cringe every time someone says it's a profitable move in every case because "you have a 100% chance to win". But arguing with those people is pointless. I tried to explain to a guy why I didn't hedge a +1200 future on tennis when the player I bet on made the final and was a -200 fave in the final for like 3 hours and just couldn't get through.
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  30. 10-13-15 10:37 AM #30
    dalogester
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    Thanks for the input guys. Gonna sleep on it and determine if I want to hedge a small amount. I do think I should give myself opportunity for some profit regardless, otherwise there's no point in gambling.
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  31. 10-13-15 11:01 AM #31
    dalogester
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    Dang just saw that hamels had 114 pitches last game. Will be on 4 days rest. Baseball studs, is this normal or could this affect him??
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