1. 09-11-15 08:41 PM #1
    JMon
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    It appears this doesn't happen often in the NFL, week one?

    A non-divisional home dog? I'm counting 71 situations since 1989?

    This is a spot to look at
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  2. 09-11-15 08:43 PM #2
    JMon
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    Anyone think a premature high total in week one?
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  3. 09-11-15 09:02 PM #3
    JMon
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  4. 09-11-15 09:11 PM #4
    slacker00
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    I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

    Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.
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  5. 09-11-15 09:12 PM #5
    seaborneq
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    Need more information. What do the numbers say? Is it Oakland this week? What do the 71 other instances say?
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  6. 09-11-15 09:22 PM #6
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

    Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.

    not rare? 71 games since 1989?
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  7. 09-11-15 09:23 PM #7
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    I have no idea what you are talking about. What's a premature high total?

    Non-division week 1 home dogs are not rare and 36-34-1 ATS is nothing to write home about anyway.
    did you check the totals?
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  8. 09-11-15 09:25 PM #8
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by seaborneq View Post
    Need more information. What do the numbers say? Is it Oakland this week? What do the 71 other instances say?
    still running them...
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  9. 09-11-15 09:28 PM #9
    JMon
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  10. 09-11-15 09:30 PM #10
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    not rare? 71 games since 1989?
    That's about 20% of the games within that criteria. Nothing rare about something that happens 20% of the time.

    Let me ask again, what are you even getting at? I can't even understand what your angle is.
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  11. 09-11-15 09:33 PM #11
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    That's about 20% of the games within that criteria. Nothing rare about something that happens 20% of the time.

    Let me ask again, what are you even getting at? I can't even understand what your angle is.
    Let me ask you again...have you looked at the totals- O/U....my god!
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  12. 09-11-15 10:20 PM #12
    JMon
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  13. 09-11-15 10:34 PM #13
    JMon
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    45-24-2 under since '89
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  14. 09-11-15 10:35 PM #14
    JMon
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  15. 09-11-15 10:42 PM #15
    JMon
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  16. 09-11-15 10:44 PM #16
    JMon
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    total>=45
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  17. 09-11-15 11:08 PM #17
    youngfl0yd
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    I don't even understand what is going on in here...
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  18. 09-11-15 11:15 PM #18
    kidcudi92
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngfl0yd View Post
    I don't even understand what is going on in here...
    x2 like what in theeeeee fukkkkk
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  19. 09-12-15 07:18 AM #19
    NardVa
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    At least one dog will cash at home. I'm guessing Buffalo. They have a legit defense and some playmakers on offense.
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  20. 09-12-15 07:21 AM #20
    DOM_Toretto
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    Wtf is jmon trying to tell us?

    Speak English not riddles
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  21. 09-12-15 07:39 AM #21
    newguy
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    He's saying bet the over
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  22. 09-12-15 08:17 AM #22
    dfish
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    Name: image.jpg Views: 640 Size: 25.9 KB
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  23. 09-12-15 08:26 AM #23
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    A non-divisional home dog? I'm counting 71 situations since 1989?

    This is a spot to look at
    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post


    45-24-2 under since '89
    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    total>=45

    Just messing around with numbers last night. This seems meaningless, but interesting. I can't think of any good logic why it happens. probably not worth a bet.

    Since 1989, in week one - home dogs in a non divisional game have seen the total go under the posted line 65% of the time. 45 unders - 24 overs and 2 push. Totals of 45 and over in this same spot are 14 under and 0 over since '89... thus Bills under and Falcons under.
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  24. 09-12-15 08:27 AM #24
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by dfish View Post
    Name: image.jpg Views: 640 Size: 25.9 KB
    boom
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  25. 09-12-15 08:30 AM #25
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post


    45-24-2 under since '89
    Why didn't you say this in post #1?

    So, to apply this: SF,OAK,WAS,JAX,BUF,ATL are the non-division week 1 home dogs and you want the under.
    WagerType:PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
    Date: Team:
    Sep 13 NFL [470] TOTAL u45-110 (INDIANAPOLIS vrs BUFFALO)
    Sep 13 NFL [472] TOTAL u43-110 (MIAMI vrs WASHINGTON)
    Sep 13 NFL [474] TOTAL u41-110 (CAROLINA vrs JACKSONVILLE)
    Sep 13 NFL [484] TOTAL u43½-110 (CINCINNATI vrs OAKLAND)
    Sep 14 NFL [490] TOTAL u55½-110 (PHILADELPHIA vrs ATLANTA)
    Sep 14 NFL [492] TOTAL u41½-110 (MINNESOTA vrs SAN FRANCISCO)
    Risking 5 SBR To Win 200.00 SBR
    (I made this parlay for tracking purposes.)

    Interesting idea, we'll see how you do. GL!
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  26. 09-12-15 08:42 AM #26
    JMon
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    slacker...Jmon was hitting the sauce rather heavy last night.
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  27. 09-12-15 08:51 AM #27
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    slacker...Jmon was hitting the sauce rather heavy last night.
    Well, grab some coffee and look it over and tell me what you think after you sober up.
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  28. 09-12-15 12:15 PM #28
    Terps1993
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    Gotta love basing numbers from 1990s non divisional home dogs over/unders to decide that this falcons eagles shootout is gonna hit the under.
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  29. 09-12-15 01:08 PM #29
    Jayvegas420
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    I have three of those 5 games over.
    This will be Intersting!
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  30. 09-12-15 06:18 PM #30
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terps1993 View Post
    Gotta love basing numbers from 1990s non divisional home dogs over/unders to decide that this falcons eagles shootout is gonna hit the under.
    I know its out there. At least he has some stats, unlike most guys on here. We've got 6 solid games to test it.
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  31. 09-13-15 08:15 AM #31
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Well, grab some coffee and look it over and tell me what you think after you sober up.
    ya,, only going to be watching for sure. Funny I stumbled on the total trend here, as I was looking to see how non div home dogs did ATS in week one, so just wanted to share. I can't think of any sound logic why they tend to go under.. and after closer review 6 spots today is the most this situation has spit out since '89; so it's going to have to go 4-2 at least. Also btwn 1989-98 it went 13-12 under/over. '99 to current 33-11-2 (under/over), with ave total of 42 and ave final score of 36. I wouldn't play, not trustworthy. I may put a little on the >=45 totals (14-0 under) for action.
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  32. 09-13-15 08:31 AM #32
    teaserpleaser
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    if it wasn't week 1 i'd smash that over in the lions v chargers game ....if it wasn't week 1
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  33. 09-14-15 10:32 PM #33
    Maddhatter
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Why didn't you say this in post #1?

    So, to apply this: SF,OAK,WAS,JAX,BUF,ATL are the non-division week 1 home dogs and you want the under.
    WagerType:PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
    Date: Team:
    Sep 13 NFL [470] TOTAL u45-110 (INDIANAPOLIS vrs BUFFALO)
    Sep 13 NFL [472] TOTAL u43-110 (MIAMI vrs WASHINGTON)
    Sep 13 NFL [474] TOTAL u41-110 (CAROLINA vrs JACKSONVILLE)
    Sep 13 NFL [484] TOTAL u43½-110 (CINCINNATI vrs OAKLAND)
    Sep 14 NFL [490] TOTAL u55½-110 (PHILADELPHIA vrs ATLANTA)
    Sep 14 NFL [492] TOTAL u41½-110 (MINNESOTA vrs SAN FRANCISCO)
    Risking 5 SBR To Win 200.00 SBR
    (I made this parlay for tracking purposes.)

    Interesting idea, we'll see how you do. GL!

    Looks like 5-1. Something to consider next year (if you can wait that long). Nice catch even if you just bet the 2 games on Mon night. Good find JMon.
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  34. 09-14-15 10:33 PM #34
    Tarboroken
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    Good job

    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    ya,, only going to be watching for sure. Funny I stumbled on the total trend here, as I was looking to see how non div home dogs did ATS in week one, so just wanted to share. I can't think of any sound logic why they tend to go under.. and after closer review 6 spots today is the most this situation has spit out since '89; so it's going to have to go 4-2 at least. Also btwn 1989-98 it went 13-12 under/over. '99 to current 33-11-2 (under/over), with ave total of 42 and ave final score of 36. I wouldn't play, not trustworthy. I may put a little on the >=45 totals (14-0 under) for action.

    You ou were right. Many thought you would be wrong.
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  35. 09-15-15 06:53 AM #35
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maddhatter View Post
    Looks like 5-1. Something to consider next year (if you can wait that long). Nice catch even if you just bet the 2 games on Mon night. Good find JMon.
    Well, we don't have to wait. We can use what we learned here to find another lopsided trend like this.
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