You a have to take in strength of schedule.
Note that AFC south teams like Colts and Texans not only play jaguars and titans twice but also playing against every team in nfc south, atl, tampa, saints, maybe panthers can give fits.
Colts schedule is a complete joke. All their tough games are at home agst pats, denver, and hou while their away games agst buf, ten, atl and jax. Only 2 gms away seem like possible losses vs hou and pit. Maybe miami as well. Colts getting home field advantage though out playoffs no doubt about it.
Fins are another team who managed to get lucky with most of their tough gms at home while just having to travel to a bunch of sorry ass teams like was, jax, ten, nyj, maybe buf, phi and sd are toss up. And of course pats twice a yr.
I haven't finished going thru schedule but I'll be taking a lot closer look at every team schedule as i use this to determine fantasy draft picks. Esp the last 3-4 weeks having soft schedules will win you championships.