[trobin31]

Last time I dropped a non-sports play I gave you Eddie Redmayne for best actor and he swept almost every major best actor award. Just saying I don't throw this kind of stuff out there lightly.

Anyway, I'm a native Floridian who lived there while he was governor. If you would have asked me 10years ago he could become president I would've laughed at you. However, I've seen him on television recently and he has undergone a complete tranformation. He has gone from chubby and round faced to tall and slender. He has gone from a dark, messy haired middle ager to a clean cut with gentleman with grey streaks. The most profound change is how articulate he has become. Jeb always came across as nervous or doppy but now he seems calm and wise (sounding). Personally I think the guy has been undergoing some kind of president boot camp over the past several years under the direction of Bush family top advisors.

He will garner support of the entire southern region as well as taking key swing states like ohio, virginia and texas same as his brother.

Importantly, top right-wing media like Rush Limbaugh and everyone at Fox news will be 100% behind him which cannot be said of the past two elections with McCain and Romney. In fact they seem to be doing the complete opposite. And believe me, the media controls every thing on both sides of aisle.

As for the opposition, who is the democratic nominee going to be? Hilary Clinton is favored to win the presidency but there is so much dirt and dislikability to overcome that unless she has gone to president boot-camp as well i cant see her getting the split votes. Personally I have a theory on who gets those independent votes and eventually elected, and that's men(hetero-) usually vote for guys they would have a beer with, and women vote for guys they find attractive and/or husband material. Same holds for women, they would vote for a lady who they could chit chat and go shopping or whatever it is they do and men are going to vote for wife material. Any takers on Hilary Clinton guys? Didn't think so. Hey this is just fact, not how I operate, but you'd be surprised how much the subconscious controls our decision making. just go back to since television became common-place and see for yourself. This election will be no different.

Finally, you don't have to be DC insider to know that Bush and crew are masters at manipulating the polls. I have family who work for the law firm handling Bush's governor elections and they have people at every poll station doing what they have to do...not saying the other side isn't guilty but these guys are pros.

A little far in advance but book it before this fall and the poll numbers really start supporting another Bush presidency and the odds change too drastically.

Jeb Bush elected president +325 (5dimes)
Jeb Bush elected Republican nominee +175 (5dimes)
Republican nominated president 2016 +140 (betdsi)
Field versus Hilary Clinton -135 (5dimes)

[trytrytry]

A well done post with the gambling aspect there hoping to sort out various overlays and seeing a change trend in Jeb is useful.

hope it does not turn into a DEM vs REB trash talking thread.

I personally don't agree with any of those being overlays (what is that betdsi number? +145?) ..

[trobin31]

Yep +140, I fixed it.

[DOM_Toretto]

Hmmm interesting post.

I took +900 on Rubio a couple months back. Thought he was doing a good job of connecting with Latin Americans as well as Millenials.

Never thought another Bush or Clinton would take office, but you make great points about the media pushing Jeb Bush down our throats. I remember last election my Mom saying something along the lines of "Ron Paul isn't really running" early on after he had actually won 2 primary states already! But the mainstream media she soaks in manipulates polls and wanted her to think that. Crazy.

I know Hillary is 1/1 favorite but there is a LOT of dirt like you mentioned... that book coming out destroys her with her shady ass Russian deals. That bitch is fukkin evil and shady and NOT trustworthy at all.

So perhaps Jeb is worth a look at betting in a month or two...

[trobin31]

^
Dom, instincts tell us the Latino population is key, which, in all fairness might be true. However, the majority of voting g Americans are either Caucasian or mixed. While Rubio has been a notariable candidate and has progressed to the Senate from the house of Representatives he still has a rather small stature at 5'11". Unfortunately Americans do not look past these traits and will vote for the rather tall 6'3" candidate who seems to tower above his opponent physically. I might be wrong and Rubio may have a better connection with the people across all ethnic lines. My sense is there are far more many Americans, especially within his own party, who would rather vote for the ethnic majority. I say this because despite established party affiliations, people still need to feel inspired to go out and vote. In Rubio' s case, I don't think The ethnic majority will feel inspired to vote for a catholic, Cuban who might be leniate on border security and does not identify with them ethnically. If Rubio were to make it past the primaries then yes I would give him serious consideration especially against H Clinton. So I think +900 odds is great value but also feel the ethnic majority in the USA would be more inclined to back Bush at the primaries. Besides this, Bush has already positioned himself as the top fundraiser in the the party by holding dinners at up to 100k a pop. These guys mean business, and, I dont think Rubio has nearly the the support in terms of finance and cultural backing nor does he have the looks or charm to overcome this.

Obviously, I think hedging on Bush is a good idea.

[jjgold]

Whoever has most money wins elections on any level

[trobin31]

Whoever has most money wins elections on any level

Well then Bush wins easily

[d2bets]

Field -135 vs. Hillary is horrible. I'll take Hillary +135 anyday everyday. Should be odds on favorite.

[DwightShrute]

(Breitbart) – A new poll from USA Today and Suffolk University finds that billionaire Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner for 2016

[STAX]

I like this bet... not sold on Bush but republicans will win the election for sure. its hard for me to see another Bush in office, especially as much as everyone still hates the last Bush to be in office. But then again, the elections are rigged so it wouldnt surprise me at all

[CanuckG]

(Breitbart) – A new poll from USA Today and Suffolk University finds that billionaire Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner for 2016

but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

[DwightShrute]

but the brash billionaire is also the weakest competitor among the top seven GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

its early. He will eat her alive. What can hillary possible run on? Her last name? Please.

[scumbag]

get behind walker to win the nomination. that's the sharp play. trump is gonna bloody up the field and he will not go after walker. but jeb will be a target of his for sure.

and jeb hasn't quite made the transformation you think. he's still a dopey prick who constantly sticks his foot in his mouth.

pound walker hard if you want to win.

[thechaoz]

Great, so we know Hillary is a lock

[trobin31]

(Breitbart) – A new poll from USA Today and Suffolk University finds that billionaire Donald Trump is the clear Republican frontrunner for 2016

Look for left wing media to push for opponents they feel they can beat at the finish line. I have no party affiliation, but if I were a staunch Democrat I am pushing for Trump to be elected. This may just be my own perception but a billionaire who has filed for bankruptcy and divorce several times has no chance at making it in Iowa. I am not sure what his motivations are besides fundraising but I would swallow a big bag of dicks if he finished better than 3rd at the primaries.

[ttwarrior1]

bush has no chance

[DrunkHorseplayer]

its early. He will eat her alive. What can hillary possible run on? Her last name? Please.

Yes; she can and will run (and win) on nothing but her last name.

[trobin31]

bush has no chance

Thanks tt, but I'll stand by my comments

I don't think anyone else running has the political power and financial backing Jeb will have..

[RonPaul2008]

Gawd I hope not! We don't need more of the Bush or Clinton crime families here.

[trobin31]

get behind walker to win the nomination. that's the sharp play. trump is gonna bloody up the field and he will not go after walker. but jeb will be a target of his for sure.

and jeb hasn't quite made the transformation you think. he's still a dopey prick who constantly sticks his foot in his mouth.

pound walker hard if you want to win.

I looked at Walker and while he does seem to have a certain charm I think he will have MAJOR issues carrying multiple important subgroup voters including women, latinos and state/federal/government employees.

He is young at 47 and still idealistic in his conservative approach. You can't expect to become president by saying your against immigration reform, abortion even in cases of rape and cutting government jobs and salaries to lower business taxes. It just won't fly. Many independent voters are actually for some of the Healthcare reforms and decreasing our military involvement abroad. Until he finds a way of addressing these issues intelligently and politely without offending the other people in the room he will not succeed at the national level. Playing country music while waiving the American flag and reciting your Christian values over and over again does not seem to be a winning formula these days. Not saying its right but most people want to hear you discuss thoughts and values without it having been ordained by God.

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

Let's hope not. We don't need more Bush lies or a Clinton Bush scenario again.

Grow up you stupid American sheeple especially the dumb shit women who voted this piece of shit loser in!

[scumbag]

I looked at Walker and while he does seem to have a certain charm I think he will have MAJOR issues carrying multiple important subgroup voters including women, latinos and state/federal/government employees.

He is young at 47 and still idealistic in his conservative approach. You can't expect to become president by saying your against immigration reform, abortion even in cases of rape and cutting government jobs and salaries to lower business taxes. It just won't fly. Many independent voters are actually for some of the Healthcare reforms and decreasing our military involvement abroad. Until he finds a way of addressing these issues intelligently and politely without offending the other people in the room he will not succeed at the national level. Playing country music while waiving the American flag and reciting your Christian values over and over again does not seem to be a winning formula these days. Not saying its right but most people want to hear you discuss thoughts and values without it having been ordained by God.

i should have clarified: walker is the sharpest bet "to win the nomination". all those things that should make him unelectable in the general give him a nice edge in the primary.

[d2bets]

i should have clarified: walker is the sharpest bet "to win the nomination". all those things that should make him unelectable in the general give him a nice edge in the primary.

Walker's got some big money and names behind him from behind the scenes. He could be the guy to get it and take the fall. Nobody's beating Hillary.

[DwightShrute]

not sure who the next president will be but it won't be a democrat. A democrat can't run on Obama's record and if they try, they will be eaten alive.

[Plaza23]

I swept a huge parlay at 5 dimes in the 2014 midterms bc they put out ML on races that were not even going to be close. It's almost free money but I will say I don't see the point in betting props this far out. Your basically giving them your money and letting them sit on it for over a year if you make the bet. I just couldn't do it.

[Plaza23]

I looked at Walker and while he does seem to have a certain charm I think he will have MAJOR issues carrying multiple important subgroup voters including women, latinos and state/federal/government employees.

He is young at 47 and still idealistic in his conservative approach. You can't expect to become president by saying your against immigration reform, abortion even in cases of rape and cutting government jobs and salaries to lower business taxes. It just won't fly. Many independent voters are actually for some of the Healthcare reforms and decreasing our military involvement abroad. Until he finds a way of addressing these issues intelligently and politely without offending the other people in the room he will not succeed at the national level. Playing country music while waiving the American flag and reciting your Christian values over and over again does not seem to be a winning formula these days. Not saying its right but most people want to hear you discuss thoughts and values without it having been ordained by God.

Courting independent voters is a loser strategy for Republicans. Didn't work running moderates like McCain and Romney. The GOP currently has the biggest majority in the congress that they have ever had and it was built on the backs of conservative voters. Presidential elections are all about turning out the base. If the GOP runs Scott Walker, he could definitely win. Walker would bring out the base.

Plus, I can't see Hillary pulling the blacks in like Obama did. They aren't voting for an old white woman. She will need to court the independents and maybe she can, who knows? Bill Clinton had a more conservative track record than some of the current RINOs we got in congress today. If people think they are voting for him again by voting for her, She will be tough to beat.

If the GOP nominates Walker or Rubio, I think they will win. If it's Jeb Bush, I think he loses. He isn't strong enough with the base to overcome the negative perceptions of the Bush name still holds in this country.

[scumbag]

the base is always going to vote for whoever the penetrate they nominate because they're so hopped up on "da socialists".

republicans need to convince blacks, mexicans and asians that they aren't complete racist dickheads - and good luck with that.

[Plaza23]

the base is always going to vote for whoever the penetrate they nominate because they're so hopped up on "da socialists".

republicans need to convince blacks, mexicans and asians that they aren't complete racist dickheads - and good luck with that.

That isn't true at all. The base will stay home if another McCain or Romney is nominated just like they did in 2008 and 2012.

The main advantage the GOP has is Obama can't run again, which means blacks won't even show up to vote. Hillary isn't going to mobilize them. The blacks that do vote will vote for her no matter what, there just won't be as many show up.

The Dems strategy has always been to get a bunch of minoritiy groups and have them vote straight Dem. When you take out blacks, that gets way harder for them to win national elections.

The GOP just needs to make sure the white base shows up in strong numbers. Run against Obama, don't put in an idiot like Trump, don't nominate any dumb candidates that make controversial statements) and this should be a win.

If we can't beat an old woman coming off 8 yrs of an unpopular president, then we will never win again.

I think there's enough anger over gay marriage being shoved down voters throats (by court judges that go against the will of the people) along with ObamaCare hate that 2016 will be a big year for the GOP presidential candidate. There should be enthusiasm there. The #1 issue should be repealing ObamaCare because if the GOP wins Presidency then that thing is done for. It'll be voted out by the majorities in house, senate, and presidency.

[thechaoz]

Don't piss away your money on the GOP. America has changed

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jeb to win Rep candidacy not bad. Just think USA votes Democrat now, b/c of demographics.

[jtoler]

Not charismatic enough, as stupid as his brother was at least W had a little charisma.

[RonPaul2008]

Not charismatic enough, as stupid as his brother was at least W had a little charisma.

Just like Hillary has no charisma, but Bill has it in spades.

[trobin31]

https://youtu.be/i5GMhGpk5jY

Definitely not the most charasmatic guy, but sometimes charisma can be manufactured by money

[DwightShrute]

https://youtu.be/i5GMhGpk5jY

Definitely not the most charasmatic guy, but sometimes charisma can be manufactured by money

he's just got that last name of his.

great video though