Originally Posted by
KVB
The total for the Toronto vs. Edmonton line opened at 48.5, moved to 48 where some houses opened, then it ticked back to 48.5 where it sits in most cases.
I must say I expected a little more downward movement here and can only think that the books are holding. Clearly, the initial downward pressure was met by something a bit sharp, and books may not want to tip the hand or move the line.
That is a little speculative; as it is possible the line itself is sharp and steady at 48.5, as I can see pressures both ways. But truthfully, I think I see a position being taken here. For those with higher models, like 47 or 48, they are being forced to guess or pass.
Here’s a concern. I’ve mentioned my models record against Totals a few times. It’s basically been 50-50 and I was expecting to see some variance, one way or another. Just after that’s posted, we find my predictions 1-6 over the last seven games against the Totals. (While I had 52-54 points predicted last night, the line closed at 51.5 and the game had 49 points scored, making my prediction a fail on the Over.)
So that’s 4 straight times my total prediction, which has been 50-50, week by week, through week 8, has lost. It stands to reason that it would be due to succeed, which would make the bet an Under.
But with other reasons to take the Under, some using the same streak breaking mentality, it seems the market should have moved. My read, or take, on this is that the early dip to 48 may have been manipulation to get the better number and quickly books got hit. I think, in terms of my predicted scores against the Totals, we are dealing with a bit of a market shakeout.
I think Friday’s game is still a part of that shakeout and have picked up the OVER 48.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Edmonton Eskimos.
We’re taking on the books here and it will be interesting to see how the books handle the pressures tomorrow…