[HeeluvaGuy]

Hmmm... I was looking this game over and considering a play on the over, but I overlooked the most important stat ... the start time. GL with your plays fellas. I'm on the sidelines for this one (unless something comes up at the half).

Doh!

[mcaulay777]

Thought Riders had a good upset chance last week but fell short. They should win a game sometime it has to be against Winnipeg or Ottawa.Cant see Toronto winning against Hamilton to go to Grey Cup but who knows.Ticats look awuful Strong. Barring Injuries should be your champs.I listen to the 2 and out Podcast each week they do a great job.Eskimo Empire and Podcast we we for Hamilton is good too lots of Info and insight on CFL.Love CFL Football.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I went 0-1 last week and am now 10-9 for the thread. Meh. Here's what my raw data has given me:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Totals		11	9	9	11

Interesting trend developing on the sides...

[HeeluvaGuy]

For Week 10 my raw numbers say:

HAM -21.9 50.1
EDM -10.2 51.8
WIN -1.8 51.4
OTT -2.6 54

[true degenerate]

My CFL picks posted in this thread;

(12-6)

Montreal +3 (Win)

Edmonton +3 (Loss)

Calgary -6.5 (Loss)

Toronto -8.5 (Loss)

Nothing like an old fashioned ASS KICKIN'! Brutal weekend for me. Time to step back & adjust

[KVB]

Reviewing is always good and I want to make a quick note as we enter the last week of the first half of the season…a dangerous time.

I wrote this regarding totals before last week kicked off…

...This was from the end of the first quarter, week 5. Since then the models have gone 2-2 against the Totals each week for an overall record of 11-11...

...This week, the models predict scores that come in at the Under on every game; although Saturday’s game is within one point of the posted line.

This is something to keep in mind as we would expect to see some variance, one way or another in this record against totals. Simply put, it is to be expected from the markets and it will be interesting to watch for the steering of total money in the near future.

As we’ve seen, it can be wise to think ahead...

Last week my predictions went 1-3 against totals as three Over bets cashed.


And this was written about the spreads after game one of last week…

...While tonight’s bold plays lost, if you followed my predicted score listed, with any discrepancy against the point spread, you would be hitting at a whopping 79%.

Notice we have varied from 55%-62% by quite a bit. Contrast that to the performance against the total markets mentioned in a post above, with little to no variance at all, including recent performance.

This divergence is not uncommon among the markets and it will be interesting to see if the behavior shifts and we see more variance in totals and less in the sides.

As for these results, including the BC debacles, remember I said we would break this down one quarter of a season at time. We are approaching the midway point, after which it is common to see markets shift around.

Like every game, there are two halves to every season...

The predictions were 2-2 against the spread last week.

Could we be seeing the signs of fluctuation in variance I was talking about? It seems subtle, but when charted it has characteristics. It is the middle of the season and the timing is right.

You see, the books know who’s won money and they intend to get it back. My line will stay dynamic, and stay sharp, it will keep us competitive, but it will also take some hits. This is a battle.

Even True degen had a correction last week.

I also mentioned after the first quarter that the models against the moneyline, which were 5-7 after the first quarter, would catch up. They are now 16-12 against the moneyline.

It’s always nice to know what condition your condition is in…



It's getting tougher.

[KVB]

For the first game this week between Montreal and Hamilton I have a prediction with Hamilton scoring 36 or 37 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17. There are some models with the game a little closer and a bit lower scoring. Notice I have total of 52, 53, or 54 points. This line opened at 53.5 points and is now sitting at 53. I suppose there could be some pressure on the Under but this line seems to have opened pretty sharp.

This could be another sign that the Total market and my predictions against them is shifting. I know this is about the third time I’ve said it, but if we see that score push the close, well let’s just wait and see. For now, I am passing on the total.

Most everyone has Hamilton to crush in this game and I think it could be overrated. The last team to give Hamilton trouble was Montreal, who beat them. We’ve come full circle and are now in Hamilton where they seem unstoppable.

When the markets brew an upset they tend to take out different types of upset bettors until the time comes. I can see several more targets as this week goes on, implying I hold off, leading to Saskatchewan on Sunday but can’t see a bigger upset, both in number and perception, than Montreal over Hamilton.

I also recognize this does take out some upset bettors individually, again implying we hold off, but the number calls for the shot. It might appear I am chasing an upset here, but there are plenty of other metrics I am using. This is the third straight upset I’ve picked. Each time, the price has paid more, +240, +380 and now I’ve picked up Montreal Alouettes +450 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I realize the last two upsets I bought ended with the underdogs still covering. In both those games I passed on the side bet. In the give and take nature of the markets one might see the favorite as covering this game. In fact there are plenty of reasons to buy Hamilton.

In terms of the flow of money, I can see this week going two different directions. As usual, this first game is the tricky one and starts the flow.

While it is risky to get into this first game with too many positions I am going to take a stab at this week’s moneyflow, especially with these offered prices, and pick up Montreal Alouettes +9.5 (-103) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

As you know I am not afraid to lose this bet. Saskatchewan may be the one still and get their first win this week; let’s see what kind of pressures the week brings to the market in order to make it happen.

Good Luck

[KVB]

It is only Tuesday so there is more information to get from the markets but I also think Edmonton has a good chance of rebounding on Friday. That line opened at Edmonton -3 and rather quickly made its way to -4.

Many models being created basically show Edmonton winning this game by anywhere from 4 to 7 points. I, on the other hand, have Toronto with a slight edge of 20 or 22 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. It is close, but not a tie.

Like the first game, this is a rematch in which this week’s favorite was not only favored in the first game, but also lost in an upset.

I am not surprised this line opened as low as it did and it may see more upward pressure. As for the Total, there is little reason to believe the line will go up as I see plenty of pressure on the downside, consistent with my prediction. Some models may get to 47 or 48 points, but most sit in the lower to mid-40’s.

This is the lowest line of the week and may trend lower. I am watching closely. There are some groups that may take the Over here, lending support, and they may be right.

I am not going to buy Edmonton -4 right now but will be looking at another potential moneyline bet.

One final note of recent behavior; in week 8 my prediction had Edmonton while so many had Montreal. The line shifted to Montreal big time, but the prediction prevailed. In week 9, my model showed Montreal but many had BC, this time the line shifted to Montreal, and once again, the prediction prevailed.

This week I predict Toronto while I know so many will be on Edmonton. If the hidden upset is here, I doubt it would be consistent with my prediction but this could be interesting.

I know it’s early but I wanted to throw this out there regarding the models.

[noddse]

CFL. Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Montreal Alouettes.

According to @CFLNews, their is something going on in Montreal that doesn’t bode well. GM Jim Popp fired HC Tom Higgings following a rare road win in British Columbia. I have retweeted the posts in my timeline.

Furtheron, the Als are coming of a West coast trip playing and now have to play in a very hostile environment in Hamilton that is by far the best team in the CFL this season. That spot just looks ridicilous to me. Lots of travel, departure of the Head Coach, short week..

Montreal won the first match up 17-13 at home at the start of the season. They aren’t a good offensive team though. They rarely score more than in the low 20s. On the other site, Hamilton is playing in all three phases light out football. They haven’t surrendered more than 22 points in any of their games at Tim Hortons Field.

Montreal Alouettes Under 22.0 5Dimes 1.91 5 units.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Montreal Alouettes Under 22.0 5Dimes 1.91 5 units.

I've been busy with some other stuff and haven't had a chance to look closely at the games this week. As a result, I hadn't considered this play yet, but my model strongly supports it. I may have to dig deeper, but appreciate this post. Thanks.

[KVB]

It is only Tuesday so there is more information to get from the markets but I also think Edmonton has a good chance of rebounding on Friday. That line opened at Edmonton -3 and rather quickly made its way to -4.

Many models being created basically show Edmonton winning this game by anywhere from 4 to 7 points. I, on the other hand, have Toronto with a slight edge of 20 or 22 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. It is close, but not a tie...

...I am not surprised this line opened as low as it did and it may see more upward pressure...

I am not going to buy Edmonton -4 right now but will be looking at another potential moneyline bet...

As expected this line has moved to 5 and even 5.5 in some places. I'm starting to wish I had picked up the 4 and now even the moneyline is getting expensive.

I do think it's Edmonton this week but that line could be getting out of hand. So far, this season, not getting the best line hasn't really mattered. There were two games in week 3 that pushed the closing line. No total has ended in a push.

Things are bound to get tighter.

[BamaCBass]

Well Noddse, you definitely make some valid points. Thanks for posting! Thank all you guys actually. I've really enjoyed this thread...

KVB, how are you feeling today about Montreal? Any new insight?

[KVB]

For the first game this week between Montreal and Hamilton I have a prediction with Hamilton scoring 36 or 37 points to Montreal’s 16 or 17. There are some models with the game a little closer and a bit lower scoring. Notice I have total of 52, 53, or 54 points. This line opened at 53.5 points and is now sitting at 53. I suppose there could be some pressure on the Under but this line seems to have opened pretty sharp...

...When the markets brew an upset they tend to take out different types of upset bettors until the time comes. I can see several more targets as this week goes on, implying I hold off, leading to Saskatchewan on Sunday but can’t see a bigger upset, both in number and perception, than Montreal over Hamilton.

I also recognize this does take out some upset bettors individually, again implying we hold off, but the number calls for the shot...

First the Total. This line has shown some pressure on the Under; expected for a Hamilton home game and I am still going to pass as it seems pretty sharp.

Concerning the different types of underdog “targets” I keep referring to, I can see a specific audience today and especially one tomorrow. I have constructed a moneyflow parlay that takes these bettors out all in anticipation of the Saskatchewan upset. It seems like a bunch of hoopla to protect a little Saskatchewan upset, but we are nearing the end of the first half of the season and clearly plenty of upsets have paid this year so far.

Here’s the parlay:

[BamaCBass]

Honestly, I'm pretty much in the dark when it comes to following money flow, but it's interesting that the Hamilton line is increasing while ML is holding or decreasing...


edit: ok, maybe not

[KVB]

Well Noddse, you definitely make some valid points. Thanks for posting! Thank all you guys actually. I've really enjoyed this thread...

KVB, how are you feeling today about Montreal? Any new insight?

Well, we look at the ground and see everything said about why this should be a blowout. And by all rights, it probably should. I'm careful not to push Montreal too heard because I do see money flowing in one of two directions.

Many times the market analysis points a direction completely opposite of what we see on the field. Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong. We’ve seen some Overs in this threads that just didn’t seem worth a bet end up paying.

Sports provide surprises, but not always. Constant contrarian type plays aren’t always going to pay off and if you’ve notice, I’ve been a little stuck trying to find an upset.

We have to careful here; it’s easy to give up a few units, especially when ahead and the models are due to fail a bit.

I like more and more for my models to fail in Friday’s game, giving Edmonton the win but again we need to be cautious. Last week was a pretty solid Hamilton play I even bought early and I am wishing I had bought Edmonton already. The books may seek revenge.

That’s my problem with this first game; it’s the start of this week’s give and take.

The lines are going to get tight and scores will show the same, these market movements, while predictable, are still fairly large.

I wouldn’t buy Hamilton right now and remember, the second bet of a middle is the winning bet. Getting an 11 or 11.5 with Montreal might not be too bad.

I’m a little ticked that Edmonton, for Friday, has moved so much but we’ll see tonight what the next plays are.

For now I’m not adding positions and waiting it out. Maybe we’ll catch a chicken tonight.

[KVB]

Honestly, I'm pretty much in the dark when it comes to following money flow, but it's interesting that the Hamilton line is increasing while ML is holding or decreasing...

Yeah, clearly something is going here, maybe Toronto is the upset and the sharp models are going to prevail, but I don't think so.

Either way, I mentioned a couple of days ago about this game, and here we are seeing some funny business. Perhaps that increase in the point spread isn't as much as it seems, and perhaps sharps, with some models, are hitting that upset line.

There is a lot of pressure for Edmonton to come back strong after last week, opening them up for failure.

We've seen many times when a good team on a run runs out of gas, losing or not covering two sometimes three straight. The market usually shows this and with some sharps already looking at an upset, it may not happen here.

As far as the money flowing, most weeks it is very difficult to tell what's happening. But then there are those weeks we can. The idea is to pick off a few and stay in the game until more solid answers come to light.

This week is hiding something in a box, but right now, all the boxes look to similar. I'm not surprised as we are closing out the first half of the season. In the next half, everything will be opposite, and that's when the models will correct.

[KVB]

Sorry Bama, I was thinking of Friday's game and the limited money lines that were out when writing the above post.

The Hamilton vs. Montreal game doesn't really show some of those upset signs, but if it wanted to be hidden, it wouldn't really show signs.

It's a tricky business this sports betting.

[BamaCBass]

Sorry Bama, I was thinking of Friday's game and the limited money lines that were out when writing the above post.

The Hamilton vs. Montreal game doesn't really show some of those upset signs, but if it wanted to be hidden, it wouldn't really show signs.

It's a tricky business this sports betting.

No problem. Thanks for your input.

[KVB]

I'm processing a ton of information right now so am bit all over the place with these lines but I do want to say one more thing about these upsets. The last two played close, teasing the potential upset.

Often times, in these situations, we get a small shakeout. What will happen is a potential upset will just get destroyed in a blowout. This will be designed to put off those bettors trying to sniff out the underdog.

For example, the end of week 8 brought to huge favorite blowouts.. Week 9 opened with an upset and 3 of the 4 games were underdogs.

I've indicated the upset is brewing and a Hamilton blowout tonight could be the indicator we are looking for.

On the other hand, there could always be that story of the new coach, new motivations, etc. that lead to a Montreal breakout game.

Remember, the last team to give Hamilton trouble was Montreal.

Right now the markets are really pressuring Hamilton, the line is 11 in some places.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I missed the good line on the MTL team total so I'm going with:

HAM -10.5 (-107)

I see where KVB is coming from, but I feel like I've got to trust the model on this one. GL tonight guys!

[KVB]

...I wouldn’t buy Hamilton right now and remember, the second bet of a middle is the winning bet. Getting an 11 or 11.5 with Montreal might not be too bad...

Notice that while many books hit 11 points, many of those go right back to 10.5. Perhaps a late Montreal pointspread bet is in play here.

[KVB]

I missed the good line on the MTL team total so I'm going with:

HAM -10.5 (-107)

I see where KVB is coming from, but I feel like I've got to trust the model on this one. GL tonight guys!

Awesome, I've been writing long posts and I'm hoping you guys can get where I'm coming from, even if just to acknowledge that edge of sword.

I saw that Montreal TT drop, along with the Total lines in general. I was tempted to go Under, so many last minute temptations..lol.

Good Luck Guy, if you hit here, I think we have a better view of the week. Heck, at this week in the season, the models could do well.

How about this...Hamilton, Toronto, Calgary, then Saskatchewan?

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have to confess ... I've been pretty wrapped up in the start of college football lately. That plus the fact that I didn't see anything in MLB for today, and I'm taking Hamilton as a bit of an action play (though it is informed by my numbers).

I'd love to see a thread like this for college football. For anyone interested, here's my first writeup of the season: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...ilebasic?pli=1

I expect to have 2-3 more like that for the remainder of the first week.

[KVB]

Nice write up Guy, I agree, we should do a similar thread for College and Pro Football too. Sometimes paying attention to the college markets reveals or even steers money in the pros.

There are a lot of games, but we can do it.

[BamaCBass]

I have to confess ... I've been pretty wrapped up in the start of college football lately. That plus the fact that I didn't see anything in MLB for today, and I'm taking Hamilton as a bit of an action play (though it is informed by my numbers).

I'd love to see a thread like this for college football. For anyone interested, here's my first writeup of the season: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...ilebasic?pli=1

I expect to have 2-3 more like that for the remainder of the first week.

Eager to read up

Nice write up Guy, I agree, we should do a similar thread for College and Pro Football too. Sometimes paying attention to the college markets reveals or even steers money in the pros.

There are a lot of games, but we can do it.

Absolutely yes!

[KVB]

Montreal leading at half, Hamilton has never trailed at half. We're on to something...lol.

Hamilton -7 for second half. Getting that would get you Hamilton -2. Clearly people are going to buy that up.

[BamaCBass]

Montreal leading at half, Hamilton has never trailed at half. We're on to something...lol.

Hamilton -7 for second half. Getting that would get you Hamilton -2. Clearly people are going to buy that up.

Def not superstitious but NO counting chickens! A lot can happen in a half!

[KVB]

You're right, I'm certainly not banking this game. I would not be surprised at all if Hamilton covers the spread.

But Montreal is still playing strong. Could be interesting. Maybe the heartbreak loss I was looking for last week.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Def not superstitious but NO counting chickens! A lot can happen in a half!

Haha. I'm superstitious as all get out. Hope someone cashes on this one.

[KVB]

Haha. I'm superstitious as all get out. Hope someone cashes on this one.

Hamilton's pissed off, everyone fighting.

You bet someone cashed this one. I mentioned not just an upset, but a big upset was brewing. Hamilton losing at home as 10 point favorite is pretty darn big in this league.

Condition satisfied.

[BamaCBass]

I also recognize this does take out some upset bettors individually, again implying we hold off, but the number calls for the shot. It might appear I am chasing an upset here, but there are plenty of other metrics I am using. This is the third straight upset I’ve picked. Each time, the price has paid more, +240, +380 and now I’ve picked up Montreal Alouettes +450 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck

Sorry to those on the opposite side.....

But EFFFF Yeah, brother! That's what I'm talking about!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry to those on the opposite side.....

But EFFFF Yeah, brother! That's what I'm talking about!

I was on the opposite side and no hard feelings here. Great hit!

[KVB]

...Many models being created basically show Edmonton winning this game by anywhere from 4 to 7 points. I, on the other hand, have Toronto with a slight edge of 20 or 22 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. It is close, but not a tie...

...As for the Total, there is little reason to believe the line will go up as I see plenty of pressure on the downside, consistent with my prediction. Some models may get to 47 or 48 points, but most sit in the lower to mid-40’s.

This is the lowest line of the week and may trend lower. I am watching closely. There are some groups that may take the Over here, lending support, and they may be right...

The total for the Toronto vs. Edmonton line opened at 48.5, moved to 48 where some houses opened, then it ticked back to 48.5 where it sits in most cases.

I must say I expected a little more downward movement here and can only think that the books are holding. Clearly, the initial downward pressure was met by something a bit sharp, and books may not want to tip the hand or move the line.

That is a little speculative; as it is possible the line itself is sharp and steady at 48.5, as I can see pressures both ways. But truthfully, I think I see a position being taken here. For those with higher models, like 47 or 48, they are being forced to guess or pass.

Here’s a concern. I’ve mentioned my models record against Totals a few times. It’s basically been 50-50 and I was expecting to see some variance, one way or another. Just after that’s posted, we find my predictions 1-6 over the last seven games against the Totals. (While I had 52-54 points predicted last night, the line closed at 51.5 and the game had 49 points scored, making my prediction a fail on the Over.)

So that’s 4 straight times my total prediction, which has been 50-50, week by week, through week 8, has lost. It stands to reason that it would be due to succeed, which would make the bet an Under.

But with other reasons to take the Under, some using the same streak breaking mentality, it seems the market should have moved. My read, or take, on this is that the early dip to 48 may have been manipulation to get the better number and quickly books got hit. I think, in terms of my predicted scores against the Totals, we are dealing with a bit of a market shakeout.

I think Friday’s game is still a part of that shakeout and have picked up the OVER 48.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Edmonton Eskimos.

We’re taking on the books here and it will be interesting to see how the books handle the pressures tomorrow.

[KVB]

...I also think Edmonton has a good chance of rebounding on Friday. That line opened at Edmonton -3 and rather quickly made its way to -4.

Many models being created basically show Edmonton winning this game by anywhere from 4 to 7 points. I, on the other hand, have Toronto with a slight edge of 20 or 22 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. It is close, but not a tie.

Like the first game, this is a rematch in which this week’s favorite was not only favored in the first game, but also lost in an upset.

I am not going to buy Edmonton -4 right now but will be looking at another potential moneyline bet.

One final note of recent behavior; in week 8 my prediction had Edmonton while so many had Montreal. The line shifted to Montreal big time, but the prediction prevailed. In week 9, my model showed Montreal but many had BC, this time the line shifted to Montreal, and once again, the prediction prevailed.

This week I predict Toronto while I know so many will be on Edmonton...

This line is now Edmonton -5 and could still grow but found itself between the models of 4-7 point victories mentioned above.

This line has moved too much for me to buy the favorite. Toronto can play these guys close. Last time they played, Toronto won with that opened as a 5 point underdog. But where have we heard that before?

In fact, let’s look at rematches. There have been 7 rematches this year. In the rematch of each of those games, the result against the spread was same as the first game. Like Thursdays match, the underdog covered, just like the first time they played in Montreal. Those were also both upsets, but I’m addressing the spread here. If the favorite covered in the first game, then the favorite covered in the rematch.

This has happened in every rematch this year. Considering many of the same teams were favored in each game, it basically means the “revenge” factor was nullified. Hamilton’s revenge for the loss in week 4 failed to materialize.

I would look for the market to even this out during the second half of the season. These teams will play each other again. In games where the previous two were underdogs, we could see the favorite; regardless of which team it is. Also, plenty of teams will have their first rematch with each other. This is something to look for and think about, a true nugget of wisdom hidden in these words.

Now we have a game where my sharper line predicts a different winner than many models and we just saw an upset repeat in the rematch. In this instance, I really do not see Toronto repeating as an upset and winning this rematch. This being the last week of the first half of the season, I could see this rematch, a previous underdog result, ending in the favorite.

However, jumping to the favorite after this line shift could be dangerous. I still maintain these lines are going to show how sharp they are becoming and we are going to see a middle of sorts along the way.

FFurther, this line has hit 5, the same as Saturday’s game in Winnipeg. Could we see money being split here? It will be interesting to see if the Totals both settle on 49. By the way, the game on Saturday is also a rematch; the first game was Winnipeg covering as an underdog.

Are you sensing a theme this week?

As much as I think this will be Edmonton on Friday, I am going to pass on the pointspread.

The moneyline of -220 is just too much considering these discrepancies between the sharper predictions and others often shows themselves in these games where they disagree. The sharper line just prevails.

Coming off of a positive 5.47 unit day in this thread I am going to show restraint here. As we approach game time, we will see current information to better make a decision, if any.

A lot words for no play, but I think I may refer to parts of this post in the future.