[tom89s]

Dear SBRplayers,

I got a question. Arbitrage is the same thing as sure betting, we all know that.
But let’s say that I want to make profit by knowing where the market is going and place both of the bets at pinnacle.
For example:
I bet on a tennis match between Roger Federer – Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon.
The odds on Federer start at 3.50 which obviously is too high. I place a bet on Federer at that odds as I am pretty sure that the odds on Nadal will go up from 1.35 to around 1.55.
This means I can make a profit of around 7.50% of the total stake if I bet on both sides.

The question I have:
Is this also called arbitrage/sure betting or does this kind of betting have another name as it is more about skills then finding sure bets, but knowing where the market is going and actually to play at only 1-2 bookies where you can place high stakes.

Maybe this question sounds stupid, but I am just wondering if there are other names for this kind of betting then arbitrage?

[jjgold]

And more cases than not you will guess wrong on the line and get trapped and have to get out of the bed and swallow a lot of juice… It is called arbitrage with taking a lien first

It's not as easy as it looks

[tom89s]

I agree with you, but it depends on which market you are looking at.
American sports are very difficult to predict, much easier with the European market/sports.

I am thinking more of sports like tennis, and sports that are not that big worldwide like handball etc.

I have tested it out already without placing any money and it has worked pretty well for me.

[Bigbill365]

Im not sure but I always thought arbing ment to get both sides +$ i could be wrong.But what your talking about is done a lot in Live betting befor the game theyll take the Dog +6 points and then theyll hopefully get the fav at something like +3 live betting.

[tom89s]

Im not sure but I always thought arbing ment to get both sides +$ i could be wrong.But what your talking about is done a lot in Live betting befor the game theyll take the Dog +6 points and then theyll hopefully get the fav at something like +3 live betting.

It's the same principe Bigbill, but this is more about knowing the market , having the infomation that the bookies dont have.

Lets say the Warriors are -9 favorites today. But you are faster than the bookies knowing that Curry is out for tonight's game which means you go with/bach the Cavs first on +9 as you know that since Curry is out you will Back Warriors later on as the market will change in your favour at maybe -6-7 on the Warriors becuse of Curry's injury. Which will give you a nice profit either way.
You see my point?

[Bigbill365]

It's the same principe Bigbill, but this is more about knowing the market , having the infomation that the bookies dont have.

Lets say the Warriors are -9 favorites today. But you are faster than the bookies knowing that Curry is out for tonight's game which means you go with the Cavs on +9 as you know that since Curry is out you will Back Warriors later on as the market will change you like -6-7 make becuse of Curry's injury. Which will give you a nice profit.
You see where I am going ?

Yeah I know.It can also be done by hitting a fav early as soon as the line comes out.

[tom89s]

Exactly. I have already tried it out, but without any money just to see if this is a way for me to make any good money.

[jjgold]

The only way to try is use your money… Never forget paper money is not even remotely like real money

[tom89s]

The only way to try is use your money… Never forget paper money is not even remotely like real money

Ofcourse its not , its just that I played like it was my own money.
It needs some testing before i want to give it a go with a stake of 10-30k

[trytrytry]

your post in #1 the main question no that is no Arbitrage.

what you are doing is value betting (at least to the best of your skills) and then after losing the value in the wager you are
betting off some of your value you locked in to instead get a partial payment. doing that is not smart at all unless you determined you bet too much in the first wager from a money management standpoint.

I really suggest people allow their overlays they bet to play out, use that full +EV dont make a partial negative -EV offered wager to trim off your edge in wager #1 unless there is some special circumstances.

(ie dont take insurance in blackjack unless doing so is also a +EV situation or you will loose your life savings in one wager if you dont buy back some..!)

[Nismo]

Best would be to take Nadal at 3.50 and Cavs +9 and let them play out.

[tom89s]

your post in #1 the main question no that is no Arbitrage.

what you are doing is value betting (at least to the best of your skills) and then after losing the value in the wager you are
betting off some of your value you locked in to instead get a partial payment. doing that is not smart at all unless you determined you bet too much in the first wager from a money management standpoint.

I really suggest people allow their overlays they bet to play out, use that full +EV dont make a partial negative -EV offered wager to trim off your edge in wager #1 unless there is some special circumstances.

(ie dont take insurance in blackjack unless doing so is also a +EV situation or you will loose your life savings in one wager if you dont buy back some..!)

It sure is value betting, but insead of placing bets for a few couple of hundreds, i want to give it a try with a couple of thousand and win either way. I dont see why this is such a bad idea?
Its not like I will lose my entire stake at any time? Becuse i will back the other team as well.
Lets say I have a total stake of 30 000 dollars placed on a match, i will maybe loose at the worst up to 5% if i make a bad calculation

[tom89s]

Best would be to take Nadal at 3.50 and Cavs +9 and let them play out.

I agree with you.

But lets say you make a bet on Cavs of 5000 dollars, but 4500 is for the arbrtrage, while the rest is hoping to win on the Cavs.

You will win on the one bet anyway and cover the bet on backing the Cavs as well?

[Nismo]

If your looking for short term profit then, hedge your bets. If you want long term sucess then let them ride. Learn how to determine your edge or value. Good bankroll management is key.

[jjgold]

Getting a strong number will win out in the long run

risk takers are the ones that make money in life

[tom89s]

Getting a strong number will win out in the long run

risk takers are the ones that make money in life

If you can make around 500-1000 bucks at each but, dont you look at it as sucessfull and a solid earning?

[Big Bear]

If you can make around 500-1000 bucks at each but, dont

you look at it as sucessfull and a solid earning?

this

[jjgold]

If you can make around 500-1000 bucks at each but, dont you look at it as sucessfull and a solid earning?

lol but you have to invest like a total of $10,000-$20,000

Arbersa game of the past

[RonPaul2008]

There is no reason a cover can't also be +ev

your post in #1 the main question no that is no Arbitrage.

what you are doing is value betting (at least to the best of your skills) and then after losing the value in the wager you are
betting off some of your value you locked in to instead get a partial payment. doing that is not smart at all unless you determined you bet too much in the first wager from a money management standpoint.

I really suggest people allow their overlays they bet to play out, use that full +EV dont make a partial negative -EV offered wager to trim off your edge in wager #1 unless there is some special circumstances.

(ie dont take insurance in blackjack unless doing so is also a +EV situation or you will loose your life savings in one wager if you dont buy back some..!)

[shaunovery]

Arbing only works if you can get money down on both sides at the odds you want

[jayc88]

Hedging a +ev bet with a -ev bet lol

[jjgold]

Arbing only works if you can get money down on both sides at the odds you want

then you get limited..years ago it was ok

Now its dead because of small limits..hard to move money, fees, locked accounts, ect

[BuckyOne]

Lets call it "taking a lead on a scalp". As long as you cover every play positive or negative you are scalping as far as I am concerned. It is certainly possible to lose money scalping. Hold a leg too long - don't cover all of it - don't get paid being the worst!

[A.M.S.]

U are still gna lose on juice

[jjgold]

taking leads dangerous as you can get caught in a bad line

[BuckyOne]

I know - bang bang is the best but that just isn't possible in todays marketplace. It seems like you lose way more when you lose than you win when you win. It's hard to hold on to a positive leg because of the worry, it will drop back. Only grinders should even think about it.

[RudyRuetigger]

you need to reread trytrytry's post and stick with that