Yeah I know about Gibson's and Lohse's sabermetrics, but they don't catch it all.
Lohse's xFIP doesn't look too bad at first glance compared to his ERA, mostly because he doesn't walk many (never has) and strikes out more than he has ever before. But he also gives up a ton of homers (1.88 per 9, that's ridiculous) and he's allowed at least one of those in 9 of his 11 outings. His WHIP is mediocre at best and that's despite his low walk rate and league average BABIP. Yeah, his 6.50 ERA won't be his ERA at the end of the season, but he has been a pitcher who had to rely on breaking and offspeed stuff all over his career because of his mediocre fastball. His curve has always been bad, but stats show that his slider and changeup have regressed a lot, too. Per fangraphs he has only one pitch this season which has a positive value/100 and that's his changeup with a rating of 0.1. And 0.1 is not very positive.
On the other hand you have Gibson, who hasn't got the best command, that's right, and doesn't strike out batters much. I think his ERA will go up, yeah. But he is a typical guy which is the complete opposite of Lohse. While Lohse's sabermetrics don't tell the whole story in the one direction, the sabers of Gibson don't tell his complete story in the other direction. And that's because Gibson does not pitch for strikeouts and guys like him always have 'bad' sabers (look at Michael Wacha, he has changed his pitching style a little bit and sits at an 4.00 xFIP and 4.13 SIERA and therefore he isn't much better if at all than Lohse when looking at those numbers).
And now I even haven't lost a single word about the offense of the two teams...and Braun is likely to sit out again.
I DO look at sabermetrics a lot, but there are several pitchers for which the sabers aren't the end of the story. Although I have to admit that for MOST MLB players the sabermetrics tell a lot.
No hate here, only my thoughts.