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Calculating Edge or the probability a team will win
HI guys,
I was wondering how you calculate that probability of a team winning, or your edge in a particular game? I have looked at ESPN pick center, which uses team rankings and number fire, but they seem to suck. Is there a way to calculate it on your own? If software is the best way what are the best ones out there. I just can't seem to think of way to calculate this since there is so much parody and all sports are completely different. Please help!
Its all random Son
Once you understand that you will not lose as much money
You can't calculate the incalculable ( that's what JJ said )
I'm not losing money. That is why I am trying to learn so when I start I don't have to learn it the hard way. So what's the best way to bet then JJ? Risk a flat 2% or a flat dollar amount? And just do that using a quality pick service?
nobody ever loses money
Hit the stats! Start with the standings, home/road, record in the last 10 games. This gives you an idea of who is playing well at a particular time. Then go on to stats for a particular game, who's pitching, who's hurt or taking a day off, offensive/defensive stats. If you do your homework the picture becomes a lot clearer. Of course, as JJ says, its all random so nothing is a sure thing. Sometimes its better to watch the lines and look where the money is going or what kind of price you're getting on a particular team. They're not giving money away here so remember to always look for value because if you only play the favorites then the juice will eat you up when variance comes into play. Got it?
Haha come on man, this is literally what every sports gambler is trying to achieve...anyone with any reasonable model (no one can calculate it exactly) isn't about to tell anyone.Originally Posted by jdelcampo247
Hey good story runthetable. you and drb should get together and give each other advice. I bet between the two of you it would be the two most enlightened gamblers in the same place at the same time.
Just think about what you are asking dude...if there was a simple way to know the true odds of one team winning versus another you could make only sharp bets
Calculating the true probability of a team winning is of course impossible. But there is a ton of software out there that's gives you the percentage chance a team will win based on stats, simulations, algorithms, etc. I was asking which of those, if any, would be the best to follow and that actually work. I don't expect anyone to be able to calculate an exact probability percentage on something with so many uncertain variables.
http://justflipacoin.com/
Sites like ESPN. And the ESPN Insider program are for NOVICE gamblers. It won't help you out any. The only thing I can tell you... is that it's trial and error based upon your own wagers. You learn from your mistakes. Your the one that must calculate what you believe was the misread when you LOSE... and what you calculated right when you WIN.
One thing is for certain.... injuries... stats if a player got laid or not is ALREADY CALCULATED In the SPREAD. You might need a reliable source where the wagers are coming in on? It's not fool proof... but it does help out from time to time. Mysteriously the side that had all the higher wagers on loses... and the side that no one wagered on wins. Again, doesn't happen all the time. But all games aren't calculated with pure statistics. If that was the case.... everyone in the world would win every single day.
point spreads its 50% no matter what you do or use
Anyone that thinks different should not be gambling
fangraphs is a good starting point.
Actual projections are here: http://www.fangraphs.com/livescorebo...ate=2015-05-30
But I recommend snooping around the site.
Well, let me ask you this question? Do you believe the marketplace in sports to be efficient? Is the closing line more predictive of the outcome than the opening line? If you got a price better than the closing line - do you have value? This is something we can all crunch numbers on if we want to.
And lastly, do you believe that there are people out there who can and do define value and have an effect on the marketplace???
Sbr toooolsss doott coommmmm
I've had more success watching the closing line and wagering than quickly hammering an opening line. Everyone wagers differently though. Some people want to wager FIRST... but I don't see any advantage in this. So you save a little VIG on a loss? I'd rather wait and be more precise on win.
So, you feel the right side is more important than the best price. The key would be subjectivity and hopefully being aware of factors the bookmakers did not factor in or place enough importance on. To win long term we have to be good not lucky.
that is why keeping records is one of the most important tools one should have. if you know what range in price where you are winning most of your bets then one can get the best price in that range.
Good Point! "Just win, baby" like the Giants manager that used to say, Hmmm baby! LOL There are so many things that can be looked at it in different ways. If your records tell you that you are winning - that's all you need - even if everybody else would be saying we did it wrong and got lucky. Current form, regression theory - it goes on and on - records will also tell us when it is not working - so we have to get off of the selection technique,downsize, whatever. There are a lot of players who don't keep good records and I think that is because - deep down - they don't want to know - they want action?
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