1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    Hawks/Ducks Series Length

    Game 4 today, Hawks ~ -150

    My site offers:
    Series Ends in 5 +275
    Series ends in 6 +155
    Series ends in 7 +125

    So, given Hawks -150 today, 60% chance of winning, if they lose today, I expect they will be +130 or so for Game 5 in Anaheim, or around 40% of winning.

    So there is around a 16% chance the series ends in 5 games (a losing bet at +275 odds)

    Should we bet $100 on the series ending in 6 and $100 on the series ending in 7?

    Chicago has a 60% chance today, and 40% chance in game 5 if they lose, or a 60%+(60%*40%)=84% chance at series not ending in 5

    So we have a 16% chance at losing $200 ($32), or an 84% chance at winning $55 or $25 ($34)

    Am I wrong in my calculations? It appears to be +EV, $34>$32. I could divulge into predictions for game 6/7 lines but this was the easiest start.

  2. #2
    a4u2fear
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    I averaged $55 and $25 at the 84% chance, not sure if that was correct or not.

  3. #3
    a4u2fear
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    LTprofits? Weigh in!

  4. #4
    a4u2fear
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    mods please move to handicapper forum where I may get a response.

  5. #5
    shaunovery
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    Think it may go 7

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    No idea every game goes to the wire it seems and it's just random who wins it's the luck of the Puck

    The teams are so even just like the other series but I had to make a play Anaheim wraps it up next game

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