1. #106
    BigDeem5
    2013-2016 NBA: 461-378-24 +52.65u
    BigDeem5's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-11
    Posts: 17,190
    Betpoints: 2158

    A lot of squares on wrong side

    Maryland -4 v Valpo
    ND -3.5 v Butler

    You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

    Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

    Kansas -2?

  2. #107
    MoMoneyMoVaughn
    Down but not out
    MoMoneyMoVaughn's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-08-14
    Posts: 14,988
    Betpoints: 4547

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Does a whore shit in the woods?
    Loan me $400 and we will find out

  3. #108
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    I have on my wall failed bettors cry fix

  4. #109
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by MoMoneyMoVaughn View Post
    Loan me $400 and we will find out
    $400 seems spendy for some ho into scat play, Mo. $75 should suffice.

  5. #110
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    A lot of squares on wrong side

    Maryland -4 v Valpo
    ND -3.5 v Butler

    You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

    Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

    Kansas -2?
    Dayton is the play. I don't believe all this, "Kansas won't schedule Wichita State!" ZOMG BS they keep spouting. Ellis & Seldon should destroy them down low. Line is -1.5 here.

  6. #111
    BigDeem5
    2013-2016 NBA: 461-378-24 +52.65u
    BigDeem5's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-11
    Posts: 17,190
    Betpoints: 2158

    If you're gonna be a square, do it correctly.

    Arizona UNc ml parlay was a winner today, although both covered.

    Don't lay those -3s, take the -160ml fellas.

    Take SDSU tomorrow

  7. #112
    shopbar picks
    shopbar picks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-08-10
    Posts: 2,154
    Betpoints: 22623

    Duke in a land slide. Best way to make money is bet against the post on sbr of a fav.. Everybody loved okie st.

  8. #113
    xdodger19
    xdodger19's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-12
    Posts: 18,014
    Betpoints: 6219

    I'm starting to see more value in the moneyline, takes getting used to however.
    Virginia on the moneyline. -200
    It makes it difficult to lose unless Michigan St, plays over their heads. Last game vs the Bruins, Virginia was on the better end of the refs; one play in particular the Virginia player got out on the break, dribbled with two hands, then took 3 steps all the way to the rim. The center was doing some public address announcement or something, so the refs are gonna give Michigan St. the business. As well, the Virginia team is huge and the bigger teams get the benefit of alot of fouls battling for rebounds.
    And Virginia is a really solid team that doesn't miscue very often, like Wisconsin.
    Virginia also looked more potent on offense last game as they came out much more aggressive on offense.
    Last edited by xdodger19; 03-22-15 at 07:54 AM.

  9. #114
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    A lot of squares on wrong side

    Maryland -4 v Valpo
    ND -3.5 v Butler

    You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

    Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

    Kansas -2?
    hindsight is 50/50 deemer

  10. #115
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I have on my wall failed bettors cry fix
    lol

  11. #116
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Dayton is the play. I don't believe all this, "Kansas won't schedule Wichita State!" ZOMG BS they keep spouting. Ellis & Seldon should destroy them down low. Line is -1.5 here.
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-all-year.html

    All that spewing has nothing to do with it, Wichita State should win because they are the better team IMO.

  12. #117
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    the refs def manipulate the margin of victory bc of the spread

    they also affect the moneyline winner

    but we already know this so complaining about it is pointless

    adjust your wagers beforehand

  13. #118
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 82,188
    Betpoints: 304

    Give me one reason to bet -3.5 or -2 and not ML on games decided on final possession.

    March Madness is all about drama. They like to see all games decided on final shot.

    And no Notre Dame didn't shave points. They are up by 5 and they don't want to foul a 3 point shot so they let the guy dunk uncontested to burn the clock. Nothing fishy. That's why you bet the ML.

  14. #119
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Give me one reason to bet -3.5 or -2 and not ML on games decided on final possession.

    March Madness is all about drama. They like to see all games decided on final shot.

    And no Notre Dame didn't shave points. They are up by 5 and they don't want to foul a 3 point shot so they let the guy dunk uncontested to burn the clock. Nothing fishy. That's why you bet the ML.
    bc when the -160 team loses straight up you lose more

    i have bet teams -3 and they win by 10 so i only had to lay -105 instead of -160

    i have bet teams -3 that get blown out, so i end up losing an extra 60 cents in juice

  15. #120
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    and i dont see anywhere where you predicted that a certain game would be decided by a final shot so its all hindsight

  16. #121
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    Zelda gets it.

    Look at what happened to brock betting ml faves.

    Winning at -110 is hard enough

  17. #122
    Da Manster!
    Da Manster!'s Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-13-07
    Posts: 17,666
    Betpoints: 2486

    jesus, I love all of these conspiracy theories!...you guys are straight up killing me!......yes, sometimes the fix is in but for the most part it is what it is...just shitty officiating, lack of execution by the players, and/or crappy playcalling by the coaches...lots of factors and variables in the equation...refs, players, and coaches don't give a fuk about totals and point spreads...all they care is to win the games, period...so, in closing, although there might be the occasional point shaving scandal, or a ref getting paid off, etc, etc...these occurrences are generally the exception and not the rule...truth be told, not one fuk could be given about about any of us fellow degenerates and how we wager...

  18. #123
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 82,188
    Betpoints: 304

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    bc when the -160 team loses straight up you lose more

    i have bet teams -3 and they win by 10 so i only had to lay -105 instead of -160

    i have bet teams -3 that get blown out, so i end up losing an extra 60 cents in juice
    Is risk reward. This is not like regular season where teams will play hard to cover a -3.5. In a knock out tourney they are playing very conservative. Do you want to win a -150 or lose a -110?

  19. #124
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Is risk reward. This is not like regular season where teams will play hard to cover a -3.5. In a knock out tourney they are playing very conservative. Do you want to win a -150 or lose a -110?


    silly question bc it works both ways

    i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

    perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105

  20. #125
    pavyracer
    MOLON LABE
    pavyracer's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-12-07
    Posts: 82,188
    Betpoints: 304

    Sure just bet randomly every chalk ML. That's the way to go.

  21. #126
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18704

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    [/B]

    silly question bc it works both ways

    i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

    perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105
    Thats not a good example, because UVA was never the right play

  22. #127
    pacman63
    pacman63's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-14
    Posts: 379
    Betpoints: 1991

    Going back to Notre dame, after the dunk wasn't there approx 1.7 seconds left. Why wasn't every butler player on a ND PLAYER FOR THE INBOIND PASS FOR THE IMMEDIATE FOUL. GAME WAS ONLY 3 so it's not unheard of to foul or hold your man to prevent him from getting the inbound pass. Or am I over thinking this

  23. #128
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,356
    Betpoints: 32799

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    [/B]

    silly question bc it works both ways

    i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

    perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105
    I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
    Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
    "Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"

  24. #129
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Thats not a good example, because UVA was never the right play
    congrats your hindsight is 20/20

    can you tell me the right play in some more games that ended already?

  25. #130
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
    Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
    "Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"
    i disagree. although id like to see you back this up with math/numbers

  26. #131
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,426
    Betpoints: 1868

    "Whiffs" on the foul to give the easy basket for the OU cover Ok, ref. Hit the guy right as he was passing.

  27. #132
    Ironman07
    Ironman07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-16-10
    Posts: 615
    Betpoints: 7984

    The bottom line is tournament games are not the time to lay the big lumber. If your not committed to being very careful to find 1 or 2 live dogs each day and no big bets in the tournament as there is no real pattern to cap these games,,, that being said I thing the ku-wSt game today was one of the very rare exception to take the opening line dog.. Those who think there are rigged games in the tournament should find another hobby.

  28. #133
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,356
    Betpoints: 32799

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    i disagree. although id like to see you back this up with math/numbers
    Suppose there are two teams that you like this week. One of them is -$1.30 and the other is -$1.40. You have to bet a total of $2.70 to win $2.00. If one of them loses, say the $1.30, you win $.71, which in anybody's bookkeeping system, is a loss. Turn it around and say you lose the -$1.40 play. Your winner brings you $.77. Either way, you have lost money. If you lost both games, you're out the full $2.70.

    Instead, let's say you parlay those same two favorites for $1.00, and they both win, you win $1.95, which is just a nickel short of what you'd win in the first example except you've put up way less money. If one of your teams loses, which is going to happen 6 times out of ten, you lose only $1.00 on each parlay bet.

    In a recent year, 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.

    Let's see what happens when we apply our new knowledge of parlay wagering to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

    If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. We say "most likely" because we have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. If we refer to our Parlay Payoff Chart below, we see that we should average $1.25 per win.
    The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.

  29. #134
    YouHave2outs
    YouHave2outs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-02-11
    Posts: 4,448
    Betpoints: 198

    -130 needs 56.52% to break even, but with juice or whatever assuming line is spot on true line is like -125 right on -130/+120 so let's say the favorite hits here 54.54% which is the breakeven for -125
    and -140 needs 58.33% to break even, favorite hits here 57.45% if we account for the juice and assume the line to be spot on -140/+130

    betting individually:

    odds of winning 1st and losing 2nd = 23.21%, -.40
    lose 1st, win 2nd = 26.12% -.30
    win both = 31.33% +2
    lose both = 19.34% -2.7

    expected value = -0.067


    if you are getting +195 on the two teamer:
    win parlay = 31.33% +1.95
    lose parlay = 68.67% -1

    expected value = -0.076

    math would say that it is better to bet them individually and by a reasonable margin. hope this helps.

    edit: i think it should be self explanatory, but if i left out some steps in the math that anyone wants explained just let me know. as matt damon once said, it's right.
    Last edited by YouHave2outs; 03-22-15 at 11:51 PM.

  30. #135
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,119
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Suppose there are two teams that you like this week. One of them is -$1.30 and the other is -$1.40. You have to bet a total of $2.70 to win $2.00. If one of them loses, say the $1.30, you win $.71, which in anybody's bookkeeping system, is a loss. Turn it around and say you lose the -$1.40 play. Your winner brings you $.77. Either way, you have lost money. If you lost both games, you're out the full $2.70.

    Instead, let's say you parlay those same two favorites for $1.00, and they both win, you win $1.95, which is just a nickel short of what you'd win in the first example except you've put up way less money. If one of your teams loses, which is going to happen 6 times out of ten, you lose only $1.00 on each parlay bet.

    In a recent year, 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.

    Let's see what happens when we apply our new knowledge of parlay wagering to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

    If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. We say "most likely" because we have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. If we refer to our Parlay Payoff Chart below, we see that we should average $1.25 per win.
    The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.
    i read the whole thing. the bolded part is incorrect. the odds of losing a 2 teamer with -130 and -140 is 70%, and the odds are winning that parlay are 30%. idk if it is still profitable given the new percentages

  31. #136
    YouHave2outs
    YouHave2outs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-02-11
    Posts: 4,448
    Betpoints: 198

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    i read the whole thing. the bolded part is incorrect. the odds of losing a 2 teamer with -130 and -140 is 70%, and the odds are winning that parlay are 30%. idk if it is still profitable given the new percentages
    the math is done above

  32. #137
    Evolved137
    Evolved137's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-24-13
    Posts: 346
    Betpoints: 110

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
    Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
    "Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"
    He's right. I always have found it so odd everyone on here doesn't take action on MLB season. That's 70% of all my action when it starts. I also know baseball and played my whole life, so i have more knowledge in the sport but behind all that, i do parlaying once in awhile. I'll normally sit and hunt and pound when i feel the outcome before the game on a line i find works out. Obviously this is what anyone does in every sport, but in baseball if your very sharp it's actually very easy. Total's in baseball is where good $ is, if you don't chase and are sharp, as stated.
    Last edited by Evolved137; 03-23-15 at 12:11 AM.

  33. #138
    YouHave2outs
    YouHave2outs's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-02-11
    Posts: 4,448
    Betpoints: 198

    Quote Originally Posted by Evolved137 View Post
    He's right. I always have found it so odd everyone on here doesn't take action on MLB season. That's 70% of all my action when it starts. I also know baseball and played my whole life, so i have more knowledge in the sport but behind all that, i do parlaying once in awhile. I'll normally sit and hunt and pound when i feel the outcome before the game on a line i find works out. Obviously this is what anyone does in every sport, but in baseball if your very sharp it's actually very easy. Total's in baseball is where good $ is, if you don't chase and are sharp, as stated.
    completely agree, baseball totals are where i do by far the best as well.

  34. #139
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,253
    Betpoints: 14

    its not rigged

First 1234
Top