[Ra77er]

Uncanny picks keep it up

[cankid]

Keep it rolling !!!!

[AceChampion]

Thanks for the play nash....easiest Flippin over I've had in a while now.

[Da Manster!]

Over 8.5 in Jays/White Sox for me, fellas...going a little heavy for 2.5 units ($250)...Noesi is a tuna fish sandwich and Hutchinson is a beef burrito...

ONLINE 05/25/2015 05:53 PM

STRAIGHT BET 05/25/2015 @ 07:05 PM MLB [975] TOTAL o8.5 -120 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( H NOESI -R / D HUTCHISON -R ) 250.00 208.33

[reaclast]

naash what would u pick between sdg vs laa over, under or ml? need it to keep winning the betcri's challengue (i already need 2 more picks in a row to win it i am 3/5)

[stevenash]

naash what would u pick between sdg vs laa over, under or ml? need it to keep winning the betcri's challengue (i already need 2 more picks in a row to win it i am 3/5)

I would bet Dream Weaver tonight and his Angels.

His last three has been sharp, that Blue Jay team he beat has a stacked lineup.
Angels are the best bet left.

EGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH MAY 24, 2015															YEAR TO DATE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
May 20	@ TOR	W 4-3	7.0	4	3	3	0	3	4	11	9	93	27	58	W(3-4)	-	4.37
May 15	@ BAL	W 3-1	7.1	3	1	1	1	1	3	8	14	83	26	70	W(2-4)	-	4.44
May 8	vs HOU	W 2-0	9.0	6	0	0	0	0	6	8	18	120	32	81	W(1-4)	-	4.98

[reaclast]

I would bet Dream Weaver tonight and his Angels.

His last three has been sharp, that Blue Jay team he beat has a stacked lineup.
Angels are the best bet left.

EGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH MAY 24, 2015															YEAR TO DATE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
May 20	@ TOR	W 4-3	7.0	4	3	3	0	3	4	11	9	93	27	58	W(3-4)	-	4.37
May 15	@ BAL	W 3-1	7.1	3	1	1	1	1	3	8	14	83	26	70	W(2-4)	-	4.44
May 8	vs HOU	W 2-0	9.0	6	0	0	0	0	6	8	18	120	32	81	W(1-4)	-	4.98

ups now i dont have ml's choice, just over or under, what do u say?

[stevenash]

Timid vote for the under

[stevenash]

I don't think there will be a + sign next to Vargas's name after lunch time.

Yankees really don't hit LHP well (107-452 .237) without Ellsbury who feasts on LHP that average becomes (93-406 .229) and Yankees really don't hit Vargas well (14-65 .215).

Gardener can hit LHP some, more than likely LHP specialist Young will get a start, Drew too, outside of that, Yanks shouldn't really hurt Vargas, he throws that off speed junk from the left side.

Yanks start Warren, can't trust him in this spot, against a KC team that will be swinging like a wounded bear today after that Yankee beatdown they recieved yesterday.

Warren is not the pitcher that is going to fool KC's lineup.
Also expect to see that KC speed tonight as well.

I like KC in this spot tonight.

+102 4* (yeah, I like this play)

Tail at own risk

[Vasco]

Nashy, what's your take on Detroit? We saw Miley dominate this Oakland team last week and I think Price can do the same. Line looks very low. Too good to be true or just hammer it?

[stevenash]

Nashy, what's your take on Detroit? We saw Miley dominate this Oakland team last week and I think Price can do the same. Line looks very low. Too good to be true or just hammer it?

I think the line has something to do with the Miggy status.

Don't let a line mind fuk you, you like a side, bet the side regardless of betting line.
You like a total, you bet the total, regardless of betting line.

Just because the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, doesn't mean there will be 11.5 runs scored if a ground ball/sinker ball pitcher is starting.

You like Detroit with Price, bet Detroit with Price. Don't overthink it.
Crunch your numbers, make up your mind.

[Vasco]

Yeah I agree. Not avoiding it because of the line. Like to pound when i think line is off. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Hopefully Detroit rolls with or without miggy.

[jjgold]

Detroit is your best play today

KC a nice spot at +103

[GT21Megatron]

I think the line has something to do with the Miggy status.

Don't let a line mind fuk you, you like a side, bet the side regardless of betting line.
You like a total, you bet the total, regardless of betting line.

Just because the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, doesn't mean there will be 11.5 runs scored if a ground ball/sinker ball pitcher is starting.

You like Detroit with Price, bet Detroit with Price. Don't overthink it.
Crunch your numbers, make up your mind.

definatey agree to an extent. I think you can get a reading and could be a deciding factor from the lines opening and closing between certain numbers. I get at the end of the day they still gotta play the game but what lines do can be a strong indicator in picking winners

[Ra77er]

Steve what are your thoughts on the Nats/CHC?

I see Montero and although limited PA's, Rizzo has hit Zimmerman. Those two aside the rest of the club hasn't hit Z very well at all. I know Zimmerman has poor numbers at Wrigley and on the road in general but I don't know if I can pass up +100 on a team that I have 4.5 points better than the CHC.

I haven't seen the Hendricks kid pitch along with most of the Nat hitters but they can rake against RHP and their bullpen is a run better than the Cubbies.

Should I seriously weight the fact that Zimmerman struggles at Wrigley (ie trend betting) or should I simply bet based on the math available to me? Perhaps I should pass on the game or maybe drop the bet size down.

Thanks for any insight and anyone else that chimes in. Good luck today!!

[Ra77er]

Basically I'm wondering how others approach these situations. Just pretend the Nats are the better team based on whatever methods you use however you dig deeper and see he struggles at a certain park. Do you pass on that game and look for better spots because of that information, do you bet the Nats anyway, do you half bet out of fear etc. Thanks again and yes I am busy in the tank looking at all the games right now....brain is literally smoking this afternoon.

[GT21Megatron]

Basically I'm wondering how others approach these situations. Just pretend the Nats are the better team based on whatever methods you use however you dig deeper and see he struggles at a certain park. Do you pass on that game and look for better spots because of that information, do you bet the Nats anyway, do you half bet out of fear etc. Thanks again and yes I am busy in the tank looking at all the games right now....brain is literally smoking this afternoon.

pitchers in past parks is important but when you look at yesterday Roark had gotten bombed by the Cubs his last two times out and pitched a gem yesterday. I was at the July 4th game at Nats l
park last year and Cubs ripped him up at Wrigley

[GT21Megatron]

Another one is Dicky throwing in Atlanta. Some of the worst numbers I've ever seen in that park

[jjgold]

Dickie is the hardest pitcher in baseball to predict I never know to take this guy or fade him

[GT21Megatron]

He is lights out at Tropicana too. I'm just going off the top of my head with him but it's definitely something I take a look at

[stevenash]

Yeah, some pitchers don't like certain mounds at certain parks, or the dimmensions, some parks just flat out spook certain pitchers....

It's a good idea to pay attention to those ball park factors.

[STAX]

Nash-

What do you think about the Blue Jays (-152) at home with Dickey tonight vrs White Sox and Danks? Jays are 6-4 vrs lefties with a .311 team avg. White Sox also last in MLB averaging 2.5 BBs per game. I figure a free swinging team has to be good for a knuckler like R.A. -152 too much juice? ... and would you touch the RL at +130?

[stevenash]

Steve what are your thoughts on the Nats/CHC?

I see Montero and although limited PA's, Rizzo has hit Zimmerman. Those two aside the rest of the club hasn't hit Z very well at all. I know Zimmerman has poor numbers at Wrigley and on the road in general but I don't know if I can pass up +100 on a team that I have 4.5 points better than the CHC.

I haven't seen the Hendricks kid pitch along with most of the Nat hitters but they can rake against RHP and their bullpen is a run better than the Cubbies.

Should I seriously weight the fact that Zimmerman struggles at Wrigley (ie trend betting) or should I simply bet based on the math available to me? Perhaps I should pass on the game or maybe drop the bet size down.

Thanks for any insight and anyone else that chimes in. Good luck today!!

Nats or pass

[stevenash]

Nash-

What do you think about the Blue Jays (-152) at home with Dickey tonight vrs White Sox and Danks? Jays are 6-4 vrs lefties with a .311 team avg. White Sox also last in MLB averaging 2.5 BBs per game. I figure a free swinging team has to be good for a knuckler like R.A. -152 too much juice? ... and would you touch the RL at +130?

This comes from my buddy Ben Riccardi who freelances for rotowire, DKPlaybook and others.

He's right too.

Jose Abreu vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4900) – Staying up in that hitter’s park called the Rogers Centre seems to be a good idea for first base as well. Whether or not you area fan of BvP, it does mean something when you are talking about a knuckleballer. There’s very few comparables or numbers that hold validity in a matchup with RA Dickey, so it’s even more important to look at BvP here. Last season Dickey pitched against the White Sox and Abreu was two for three with two homeruns. That alone is not a reason to use him, but when you look at Dickey’s numbers and see he is struggling with right-handed power bats, than it all fits together nicely.

Dickie does struggle against right power hitters.

Just food for thought is all, but Encarncion and Donaldson and if the rookie is playing should all kill Danks.

[stevenash]

Alexi Ramirez vs. R.A. Dickey – Ramirez knows the old saying. If a knuckleball is high, you let it fly, if it’s low, you let it go. He’s most likely repeating that sentence over and over while he’s at bat because he’s hitting .400 against Dickey with two home runs and a 1.600 OPS.

[stevenash]

Steve what are your thoughts on the Nats/CHC?

I see Montero and although limited PA's, Rizzo has hit Zimmerman. Those two aside the rest of the club hasn't hit Z very well at all. I know Zimmerman has poor numbers at Wrigley and on the road in general but I don't know if I can pass up +100 on a team that I have 4.5 points better than the CHC.

I haven't seen the Hendricks kid pitch along with most of the Nat hitters but they can rake against RHP and their bullpen is a run better than the Cubbies.

Should I seriously weight the fact that Zimmerman struggles at Wrigley (ie trend betting) or should I simply bet based on the math available to me? Perhaps I should pass on the game or maybe drop the bet size down.

Thanks for any insight and anyone else that chimes in. Good luck today!!

Dexter Fowler(S) CF
Kris Bryant(R) 3B
Anthony Rizzo(L) 1B
Starlin Castro(R) SS
Miguel Montero(L) C
Jorge Soler(R) RF
Chris Coghlan(L) LF
Kyle Hendricks(R) P
Addison Russell(R) 2B

[stevenash]

Nash-

What do you think about the Blue Jays (-152) at home with Dickey tonight vrs White Sox and Danks? Jays are 6-4 vrs lefties with a .311 team avg. White Sox also last in MLB averaging 2.5 BBs per game. I figure a free swinging team has to be good for a knuckler like R.A. -152 too much juice? ... and would you touch the RL at +130?

By far and away the best LH hitting team.
If I was a chalk eater I'd tap it, (I may play them in a parlay)


Jose Reyes(S) SS
Josh Donaldson(R) 3B
Jose Bautista(R) DH
Edwin Encarnacion(R) 1B
Chris Colabello(R) RF
Danny Valencia(R) LF
Kevin Pillar(R) CF
Steve Tolleson(R) 2B
Josh Thole(L) C

[Ra77er]

[STAX]

Alexi Ramirez vs. R.A. Dickey – Ramirez knows the old saying. If a knuckleball is high, you let it fly, if it’s low, you let it go. He’s most likely repeating that sentence over and over while he’s at bat because he’s hitting .400 against Dickey with two home runs and a 1.600 OPS.

was liking Dickey, but with this info -152 may be a bit too much juice for me. Thanks. I do have Jays in a couple parlays though Im really starting to like the over 9 runs now. Jays are gonna spank Danks... would you go over 9 for the game or over 5 first five or both? or leave it?

One thing though, teams are hitting .173 off Dickey at Rogers Centre this year... while his ERA is 4.25... a lot better than his 5.59 ERA for the season. Problem is Dickey given up 6 HRs and 17 BBs in 36 IP at home.

[stevenash]

^
On paper game screams over nine.

But nine is a bitchy number, you do get a push (at least) with a 4-4 tie late in the game, but here's the caveat with the nine, and it's a real big buyer beware, what if, (and don't you hate those two words put together) what if Dickey's knuckle ball is dancing like Fred Astaire tonight and Chicago can't touch it, and final is like 6-1 Blue Jays.

I don't like the total, you can not bet the under, and there are too many "what ifs" attached to the over.

[stevenash]

What we have going on here right and now is a solid, big boy baseball roundtable happening and the flow is like a faucet.

Great contributions fellas.

[Ra77er]

I concur 100% on the positive flow of info. I am still crunching info, will post my plays shortly. One that I am saladvating over is the total in Cleveland. Wandy may give up 8 on his own, and Salazar has poor numbers vs the red hot Ranger bats.....I rarely bet totals but this one looks good.

[STAX]

I see a lot of 6-4, 7-3, 7-4, 6-3 type final scores here tonight. I think both teams score at least 3 runs, and one of the teams scores 6. It doesnt take much though for that 6-4 final turn into a 5-3 final though. A baserunning error, a bad AB with less than 2 outs and RISP, a couple timely K's or DP groundballs, wind catching a solid hit. That's baseball though...

[stevenash]

Believe it or not - JA Happ is have a pretty nice season so far.
He's on the road in Tampa, where they (Rays) just don't hit.
Rays start Alex Colome, who is not very good, and pretty damn crappy v. LH hitters.
And the Mariners lineup tonight is stacked with LH hitters, and Cano and Seagar are now heating up as a lefty 3/5 combo, (L) Seth Smith is in the two hole, (R) Nelson Cruz in in the 4 hole, and (L) Lo-Mo is 6.
M's are sticking their sneaky hitting SS (L) Brad Miller in left field.

Oh yeah, I am loving this spot play too.
(took a little digging out, but I really like this spot play)

[SteveKerrsJunk]

Good luck baseball gurus.