Allow myself to introduce myself, my name isSO36 & these are my props. I pride myself on these & think I have done better than average the last few years on these. Fade if you must. Follow if you want.
60% is the goal. All lines from DSI unless noted otherwise.
12.29.14
Russell Athletic Bowl: CLEM-OU Longest TD Over 48.5 @ -115
Clemson is a real tough defense obviously with a #1 ranking for yards allowed in FBS. They have however given up huge scoring plays to the more prolific offensive teams they have faced because of their aggressive approach. Perine for OU has three TD runs of 49+ in the last three games. Knight may have some opps deep in the pass game also + OU has a solid return game which has three long TDs this season. OU's secondary should give Clemson some big plays with Scott & Williams. Scott has three 50+ yard TD grabs .OU gave up about a half dozen 50+ us. TD catches this season, a lot coming later in the season. Stoudt may not be terrific, but if he has time to throw, OU can be had. Think the best chances come in the return game & both passing attacks.
Texas Bowl: TEX QB Tyrone Swoopes Total Completions Over 17.5 @ -115 I think this # is a shade low when you take a look at Swoopes body of work. Yes, he's had some really poor performances, including the flop against TCU. But as far as completions, he has 18+ in 7 of his 11 starts. The four games where he failed to get that #, Texas either had absolutely nothing going for it offensively or they had a healthy lead with good success in the running game. Arkansas has been really good against the run, 23rd in FBS allowing just over 120 yards per game. Their pass D was much more mediocre, allowing 221 yards per game and ranking just 54th against the pass. They allow right around 17 completions per game. I think if Arkansas can shut down the run and work with a lead that forces UT to throw a bit, if Swoopes gets 30-35 throws that will give him a shot at this. On the year, Swoopes attempted an average of just under 33 passes per game.
Well went against my gut on this late one and could have cashed a plus prop on a FG or Safety being the opening score. Texas just has no semblance of an offense. Terrible pick on my part. Plenty of opps tomorrow.
12.30.14
Belk Bowl: LOU-UGA Special Teams/Defense Scores TD @ +135
Louisville has had six TDs scored against them on returns. That matches well with an opportunistic Georgia squad that has 4 defensive scores & 4 more on punt & kick returns combined. LOU ranks low in return coverage . Cards have 23 giveaways, while UGA has 26 takeaways. Don't expect Louisville to add a ton here as Georgia does not turn it over much, still Cards were among the best in FBS with 25 picks. So maybe there is a remote chance there. Mostly like this for Georgia.
12.31.14
Peach Bowl: MISS QB Bo Wallace Total Passing Yards Over 270.5 @ -125
Gut feel here as we know Ole Miss would rather run the ball more. TCU defense though has been better against the run & suspect against the pass. If TCU scores points, it should set up for Wallace to throw more to keep pace.
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State RB Jay Ajayi Total Rushing Yards Over 112.5 @ -115 Boise should be looking for ball control with their best weapon to help keep Arizona and their quick strike offense off the field. Ajayi is the workhorse with 100+ rushing games in 9 of 13 games, eight of which would beat this number. The Arizona D is pedestrian against the run, giving up 170+ so this should be a good match if Boise can stay in this one or be in the lead.
1.1.15
Citrus Bowl: MIZZOU RB Marcus Murphy Total Rushing/Receiving Yards Over 76.5 @ +105 Even though Murphy doesn't always get a ton of carries, he should have success against a Minnesota defense that gave up 160 ypg on the ground and nearly 230 over their last three games. If Murphy can get around 15 carries or better, this should have a shot. He's usually good for a handful of receptions per game too, so if we can get get 20 yards out of those touches - I like this to cash.
Rose Bowl: FSU WR Rashad Greene Total Receiving Yards Over 109.5 @ -114 Greene was huge in the National Champioship game last year with 141 yards on 9 catches. This season, he's been big all year long. He has beaten this # five times this year and it's been no coincidence that they are shootout type of games where FSU was rallying from behind a lot. This game looks on paper to be a high scoring affair and with FSU's defense pretty mediocre, you'd expect that FSU will be throwing the ball a bit today either to take advantage of the injury in the Ducks secondary or just catching up once more. Greene if given enough targets, I'm hoping double digits easily should be able to put up some numbers today.
Sugar Bowl: OSU QB Cardale Jones Total Completions Over 19.5 @ +100 Jones wasn't forced into anything uncomfortable against Wisconsin in his 1st start, but that should change tonight. 'Bama is so difficult to run on that I think Ohio State is going to have to throw to be successful. The Tide have done it all year long, forcing opposing teams to throw more than the usually do to compete because they can't move the chains enough with the run. OSU only averages about 27 pass attempts per game, but 'Bama usually sees bout 35 in comparison due to their stout rush D. Jones had a great completion % against Wisconsin, hitting 12/17. 30-35 passes I think is what will be needed to give this the best shot.
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