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When to middle a college football game?
How much does a point spread have to change to place an opposite bet for a possible middle? Thoughts?
Given that you have to win the middle more than 1 out of 20 attempts (for -110 juice anyway), my inclination is to think that you must cross at least one key number, but I'm not sure what else or how many points, etc. The context of this is that I got Nebraska -16.5 on Wednesday and the line is -21 now. Is it good for a middle now or should I hold out for -21.5.
Wait for +21.5
middling in cfb is almost always a bad bet, the only time to middle is in live betting when the spread has gone 16 points in either direction. so if a spread goes from +3 to +19 u buy the 19. Obviously key numbers matter but my math has shown that any spread (not total) that moves more than 16 points in any direction is a buy point, only if u still think the team can still cover the spread. The Nfl is a much better sport to middle.
No, don't middle college football. It's a long term disaster.
In my experience... the best way to middle a college football game is any game that the spread ends on -1 or PK for the closing line.
For instance... let's say Team A is against Team B and the closing spread is Team A -1 or PK.
Let's say you place a wager on Team A -1
At the half... Team A is winning by 10.
The 2nd half line is Team B -2.
I always take the team trailing because the closing line of -1 or PK meant something. It means the game will be close. It works 80% of the time.
wrong question. each play should be viewed independently.
i assume you felt Neb 16.5 was +EV or you shouldn't have bet it.
likewise, if you felt Rutgers +21.5 was +EV, play it.
never create a middle for the sake of middling. only place bets you believe to be +EV.
In NCAAF, I always prefer regular arb over middle. Because chance to hit a middle is very slim in football.
I have LSU +11½ at -108 (1,92 Decimal)
I have these options,
I can pick Marshall -11½ +124 (2,24 Decimal) for %3.38 profit.
I can pick Marshall -11 +119 (2,19 Decimal) for %2.31 profit and a middle bet. If Marshall wins by 11, you get one push, one win.
I can pick Marshall +10½ +114 (2,14 Decimal) for %1.20 profit and a greater middle bet. If Marshall wins by 11, you hit jackpot, two winners.
Win by 11 is not a very likely result in football, so I go for %3.38 guarantee profit.
Wait for 21½ but 21 is not bad either. You will lock a very key number if you can get 21.Originally Posted by HuskerExpat
Great advice for when people generally ask, "Should I try to middle this?" In most cases with the market so tight now and very little variations the questions comes up when the line moves in the bettor's favor. The player holds a good position and says should I pay the vig and but the other side for a chance at both? So in theory what you end up with is losing your good positions playing middles and keeping all the bad ones when the line moves against your play. Middling makes sense when you do it in real time which is really hard to do. You see it more with prop bets where the price can make sense....something like over under in boxing rounds. Props are usually low limits.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...nt-calculator/ Very good for push percentages.
11 occurs 2.22% according to SBR calculator.
Thanks very much. Does anyone know of a calculator like this one, but for other sports (e.g. soccer, tennis)?
I've been looking into halftime middles when your team is ahead and they set the line to overcome the spread by even more (ie you have the favorite). What typically happens, unfortunately, is that the team leading continues to lead and or win by more, which is counterintuitive to most squares or players who are dead-set on the original game line.
That said, the only middles I've done well on (not the above) are futures where I have a favorite and I take the dog. Still, as people have said above, making good bets is more important than being conservative. I've ruined as many good original plays as I have doubled up when I'm really honest and looked back.
You have the right idea. Now all you have to do is sharpen your skills and you will do just fine.
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