[stevenash]

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD PLAY IN GAME

Oakland (Lester) at Kansas City (Shields)

OAKLAND -106 / KANSAS -104
TOTAL 6.5 (u -115)

Billy Beane's legacy is riding on this game.
He traded his clean up hitter (Cespedes) to the Red Sox for tonight's starter Jon Lester.
Beane had abandoned his 'money ball' style by going 'all in' to acquire Lester.
At the time of the trade, experts and non-experts alike pretty much conceded the AL crown to the Athletics.
Nobody expected Oakland to go into a free fall after that trade, Lester pitched well for Oakland, however the A's stopped hitting.
I've had several twitter debates with a couple of CBSSPORTS.com baseball writers that said "don't blame Lester".
Billy Beane disrupted the lineup, the chemistry, the continuity of the team.

When the trade was made, A's were 4.5 games up on the Angels in the division at 66-41.
They finished stumbling and 22 and 33.
Overall record of 88-74.

Oakland versus Kansas City this season are 2 and 5
Oakland on the road this season is 40 and 41.

Kansas City was 5 and 2 versus Oakland this year and 42 and 39 at home

Jon Lester was 6-4 with Oakland with a very sound 2.35 ERA and very sound WH/IP of 1.07 and a K ratio of 8 per 9.
Between the Red Sox and the A's Lester's numbers read 16-11 .2.46 ERA and 1.10

Big Game James Shields made every start (34) this season, he was 14-8 ERA of 3.21 and his WH/IP was 1.18 and a K ratio of 7 per 9

This Kansas City team had the funkiest season I've ever seen.
Royals were the only team not to have 100 team homers and finished dead last in the HR category in the American League.
Royals were the only team not to strike out 1000 times, and led the league in fewest strike outs.
Royals were dead last when it comes getting base on balls. 380, Seatlle was 398 and every other team walked over 400 times.
Royals also lead the American League in stolen bases.
Stop ! Re-read this last paragrah.

Dead last in homers hit, dead last in walks, lead the league in fewest strikeouts, lead the league in stolen bases.
Also had the American League's best bull pen too, and the best defense in the league, with the best defensive outfield the majors has seen in over 20 years, Defensive metrics show KC had the best defensive outfielder, the second best defensive outfileder and the fourth best.

This is how the Royals won all season.
They put the ball in play, they forced opposing teams into errors with disruptive speed, they were able to take 2-1 leads into the seventh and win with dominating late inning relief (Davis and Holland) They won with scrap, and hustle and lights out relief and beyond amazing defense.
If it was hit to the outfield, it was caught, it was caught coming in, it was caught in the gaps, it was caught at the wall,
It was caught.
They had a funky rotation, they had the hardest throwing velocity wise starter (Ventura 98mph) they had junk ballers, and they had that Big Game James guy,

But I digress big time.

One game, win and continue, lose and go home.
Lester had the better regular season numbers than Shields.
Lester also has better post season success with the Red Sox than Shields had with the Rays,
(Lester also had better run support though)
However, Shields has had much better success in getting this Oakland roster out than Lester getting this current Royals roster out.

Take a good look at what Jason Nix has done against Lester in the past.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28487/jon-lester
Hosmer hits Lester, Aoki has hit Lester too.

Here's what Oakland has done to Shields in the past.
Not much
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28474/james-shields

Both starters are horses, both can go 115 pitches into the ninth inning.
Even though Lester has had better post season success, and a slightly better season, his offense has a hard time against Shields.
KC has the much better defense, KC has the superior bullpen too,
Speed kills, and KC has it.
Home field is huge here tonight as well, the K will be rocking,

There is value, not a lot, but there is value in KC -104, as I feel this line should be KC -117 or so,
The total is tough at 6.5, tiny lean on the under,

I like KC -104, not heavy, 2* play,

Can't wait for this one, can't wait for all of them.
October baseball, it's as good as it gets.

[Darkside Magick]

Leaning Royals ....straight coin flip

[stevenash]

Leaning Royals ....straight coin flip

Yeah, the difference is bullpen, defense and home field.
This is not a 'all in' game.
This is not a 5* bomb game.
This is a put a little bit on the home team game.

Bummy and SF is the game tomorrow to unload a little.

[Darkside Magick]

Yeah, the difference is bullpen, defense and home field.
This is not a 'all in' game.
This is not a 5* bomb game.
This is a put a little bit on the home team game.

Bummy and SF is the game tomorrow to unload a little.

So true....it is basically a action.play because it will be the only thing going

In all fairness..this game is unbettable

[Chi_archie]

I think people are pretty dumb to reduce a guy's "legacy" to one game, one performance, one trade

how did the A's get to such a good winning % BEFORE the trade? The payroll is dirt minimum

this isn't a team of stars and studs... they overachieved greatly before the deadline

hell the team overachieved to do what they did period IMO

[stevenash]

^
Because Beane didn't need Lester, he had more than enough pitching, disrupted his offense, his chemistry, by doing everyhing he didn't belive in doing before.

[Chi_archie]

did he have more than enough pitching though? if you look at their hitting it was a bunch of over achievers basically

what did he have pitching wise that was so rock solid?

[jjgold]

I am all over Oakland today like bad habit

Low scoring of course

4 runs top

[stevenash]

Sonny Gray and Kazmir

[Chi_archie]

but WAS Kazmir rock solid?

look at his second half stats.... I mean even most of us gamblers were calling for a huge regression with him right?

so couldn't a GM look at his staff and say... man I need some more real pitchers

By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	GP	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	2.11	4	0	0	0	6	6	0	38.1	29	10	9	1	7	35	.206
May	2.67	2	2	0	0	5	5	1	30.1	24	9	9	3	6	18	.220
June	3.12	3	1	0	0	6	6	0	34.2	29	13	12	6	11	38	.223
July	1.38	3	0	0	0	4	4	0	26.0	20	5	4	1	6	25	.211
August	7.80	2	4	0	0	6	6	0	30.0	38	26	26	3	12	16	.319
September	4.35	1	2	0	0	5	5	1	31.0	31	18	15	2	8	32	.252
Last 7 Days	1.29	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.0	4	2	1	0	0	5	.154
Pre All-Star	2.38	11	3	0	0	19	19	1	117.1	88	33	31	10	27	108	.206
All-Star	0.00	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333
Post All-Star	5.42	4	6	0	0	13	13	1	73.0	83	48	44	6	23	56	.287

[RollinDo]

Both today's and tomorrow's games are not big plays...
I took Pirates +1.5 as a safe play, as I think they come our with a W as the more consistent team...very low scoring tomorrow and in both NL games.
The AL games might be close to Overs.

[RavensFan2k3]

I think people are pretty dumb to reduce a guy's "legacy" to one game, one performance, one trade

how did the A's get to such a good winning % BEFORE the trade? The payroll is dirt minimum

this isn't a team of stars and studs... they overachieved greatly before the deadline

hell the team overachieved to do what they did period IMO

So are you saying that the A's luck is up? Royals win today?

[BeanTownClown88]

"Shields does better at getting Oak's lineup out than Lester does with getting KC's lineup out"

That is pretty compelling, it's all about the matchups.

[PaperTrail07]

"Shields does better at getting Oak's lineup out than Lester does with getting KC's lineup out"

That is pretty compelling, it's all about the matchups.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Both teams struggle vs opposing starter. Failed to mention both Oak's wins vs Kc this year had Lester on hill. Kc obviously has home field advantage which is not as big in mlb as say football. But also have no post season experience either so kind of balances that out. Oak has scored 4+ in 6 of L8 down stretch so not sure about how strong Donaldson is but they seem to have gotten on a bit of a roll offensively late. Flip a coin but as a fan Go A's!

[El Nino]

Lester 3-0 against KC this season, two wins since he has joined the A's.
2.61 ERA in 20.2 innings, 19 Hits, 6ER, 0HR, 5BB's, 20K's, 1.19WHIP. Hard to not see him pitch a gem here. KC coming across as the Pirates of last year. Nice story, broke the drought, but couldn't close out the division when the Tigers were floundering. If it gets to the bullpen tied, have to see a big advantage for KC. Should be a great game.

[Pauulzcappin]

Very solid analysis mr. nasher.

aside from donaldson and sam fuld, a's defense is pretty underwhelming. royals will try to expose that tonight on their way to ALDS

[matt1216]

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD PLAY IN GAME

Oakland (Lester) at Kansas City (Shields)

OAKLAND -106 / KANSAS -104
TOTAL 6.5 (u -115)

Billy Beane's legacy is riding on this game.
He traded his clean up hitter (Cespedes) to the Red Sox for tonight's starter Jon Lester.
Beane had abandoned his 'money ball' style by going 'all in' to acquire Lester.
At the time of the trade, experts and non-experts alike pretty much conceded the AL crown to the Athletics.
Nobody expected Oakland to go into a free fall after that trade, Lester pitched well for Oakland, however the A's stopped hitting.
I've had several twitter debates with a couple of CBSSPORTS.com baseball writers that said "don't blame Lester".
Billy Beane disrupted the lineup, the chemistry, the continuity of the team.

When the trade was made, A's were 4.5 games up on the Angels in the division at 66-41.
They finished stumbling and 22 and 33.
Overall record of 88-74.

Oakland versus Kansas City this season are 2 and 5
Oakland on the road this season is 40 and 41.

Kansas City was 5 and 2 versus Oakland this year and 42 and 39 at home

Jon Lester was 6-4 with Oakland with a very sound 2.35 ERA and very sound WH/IP of 1.07 and a K ratio of 8 per 9.
Between the Red Sox and the A's Lester's numbers read 16-11 .2.46 ERA and 1.10

Big Game James Shields made every start (34) this season, he was 14-8 ERA of 3.21 and his WH/IP was 1.18 and a K ratio of 7 per 9

This Kansas City team had the funkiest season I've ever seen.
Royals were the only team not to have 100 team homers and finished dead last in the HR category in the American League.
Royals were the only team not to strike out 1000 times, and led the league in fewest strike outs.
Royals were dead last when it comes getting base on balls. 380, Seatlle was 398 and every other team walked over 400 times.
Royals also lead the American League in stolen bases.
Stop ! Re-read this last paragrah.

Dead last in homers hit, dead last in walks, lead the league in fewest strikeouts, lead the league in stolen bases.
Also had the American League's best bull pen too, and the best defense in the league, with the best defensive outfield the majors has seen in over 20 years, Defensive metrics show KC had the best defensive outfielder, the second best defensive outfileder and the fourth best.

This is how the Royals won all season.
They put the ball in play, they forced opposing teams into errors with disruptive speed, they were able to take 2-1 leads into the seventh and win with dominating late inning relief (Davis and Holland) They won with scrap, and hustle and lights out relief and beyond amazing defense.
If it was hit to the outfield, it was caught, it was caught coming in, it was caught in the gaps, it was caught at the wall,
It was caught.
They had a funky rotation, they had the hardest throwing velocity wise starter (Ventura 98mph) they had junk ballers, and they had that Big Game James guy,

But I digress big time.

One game, win and continue, lose and go home.
Lester had the better regular season numbers than Shields.
Lester also has better post season success with the Red Sox than Shields had with the Rays,
(Lester also had better run support though)
However, Shields has had much better success in getting this Oakland roster out than Lester getting this current Royals roster out.

Take a good look at what Jason Nix has done against Lester in the past.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28487/jon-lester
Hosmer hits Lester, Aoki has hit Lester too.

Here's what Oakland has done to Shields in the past.
Not much
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28474/james-shields

Both starters are horses, both can go 115 pitches into the ninth inning.
Even though Lester has had better post season success, and a slightly better season, his offense has a hard time against Shields.
KC has the much better defense, KC has the superior bullpen too,
Speed kills, and KC has it.
Home field is huge here tonight as well, the K will be rocking,

There is value, not a lot, but there is value in KC -104, as I feel this line should be KC -117 or so,
The total is tough at 6.5, tiny lean on the under,

I like KC -104, not heavy, 2* play,

Can't wait for this one, can't wait for all of them.
October baseball, it's as good as it gets.

Solid write up, Steve. I honestly think the baseball gods will help KC move on to Play the Angels. It just feels weird though, Angels vs KC sounds wrong. Good luck

[KiDBaZkiT]

Doesn't Shields have a post-season era of nearly 5? Also,I was wondering the past few weeks why the A's were such large faves like -230 over Angels?? Now I'm starting to think they wanted every Oakland backer in the country terrified to take them tonight. Its not about math or numbers its about who does Vegas wants to win plain and simple.

[JMon]

Yep, KC ML for me as well

[TheMetsSuck]

Under huge

[BORG]

Oakland will be starting their back up catcher because he is better at throwing out baserunners.

Soto has never worked with Lester....hoping this will work in the Royals favor..

[lyon804]

Yeah, the difference is bullpen, defense and home field.
This is not a 'all in' game.
This is not a 5* bomb game.
This is a put a little bit on the home team game.

Bummy and SF is the game tomorrow to unload a little.

I am curious as to why SF is such a strong play? No doubt I rather put money on Bumgarner than Volquez but the fact is Volquez has electric stuff and has been in top form for over a month now. Also, Pittsburgh has more guys that can win a nail biter with speed and defense. Two things that are overlooked most of the season. Missing Pagan has been disruptive for SF to say the least.

[RavensFan2k3]

I am curious as to why SF is such a strong play? No doubt I rather put money on Bumgarner than Volquez but the fact is Volquez has electric stuff and has been in top form for over a month now. Also, Pittsburgh has more guys that can win a nail biter with speed and defense. Two things that are overlooked most of the season. Missing Pagan has been disruptive for SF to say the least.

I agree

[imadegen]

Bet against Lester, one of the few pitchers who is absolutely lights out in the post season and a's are still at even money. U kc Homers are funny

[RavensFan2k3]

Bet against Lester, one of the few pitchers who is absolutely lights out in the post season and a's are still at even money. U kc Homers are funny

Oh I forgot Lester is perfect and also scores runs

[chrisander625]

Shields and the Royals are the pick for what it's worth

[RavensFan2k3]

Shields and the Royals are the pick for what it's worth

Oh yeah?

[RollinDo]

Shields and the Royals are the pick for what it's worth

No offense, but not worth much considering sbr pretty much split on the side just like the public is.
Let's be honest - this is degenerate gambling 101 tonight.
I'm not dead set on Royals, but I can't find it in me to bet on A's. It probably ends up tied until the 8th and then it's any body's game...I'd rather back the home team.
To be honest, I think I'd be backing Shields on the road at Oakland without hesitation.

[KiDBaZkiT]

No offense, but not worth much considering sbr pretty much split on the side just like the public is.
Let's be honest - this is degenerate gambling 101 tonight.
I'm not dead set on Royals, but I can't find it in me to bet on A's. It probably ends up tied until the 8th and then it's any body's game...I'd rather back the home team.
To be honest, I think I'd be backing Shields on the road at Oakland without hesitation.

If that's the case I give slight the edge to KC.

[Z-Fly]

I flipped a coin, and picked a side. Small play. I am just excited, to have something, to look forward to tonight.

[ppcguru]

Excellent points KC & the under it is!

[PHILLYFAN23]

I flipped a coin, and picked a side. Small play. I am just excited, to have something, to look forward to tonight.

True and with that being said i am on KC

good luck to all

[I/O]

fwiw

I know the standard is to consider KC's pen the be all end all.

You might wanna not completely dismiss the Oak pen era and WHIP? I know the save % isn't there but this isn't murderers row they are facing.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Oak pen every bit as good as KC's. I've watched the Royals pen actually blow a couple games in last 10 days down stretch so no guarantee there. Shields is under .500 at home this season and 2-6 lifetime in postseason. Not exactly anything to get excited about there either!