[tipstrrdamien]

Hey guys,

New to SBR, but I hear you have all the answers, so I'm keen to get your opinion on whether you should consider someone's recent form over their long term form when tailing their picks?

Basically, I follow a lot of tipsters/handicapper to try and build a portfolio that gives me a bigger edge than my analysis alone. However, I sometimes find that long term results can be good (2+ years), but are hit by lengthy (2-3 months) bad runs. These often damage my balance and although I know they've made a solid return over a long period of time, should they stay in my portfolio? Will they come good again? Or have their methods changed to the extent they will no longer make a profit?

So my question is; should I adopt a more dynamic approach to my betting portfolio to only include 'in form' tipsters, and be more ruthless with my culling process to ensure I don't get dragged down as their form dips? My main concern with this, is that an in form tipster could lose his form quickly, and maybe I will miss the boat...

Any feedback is appreciated

Damien

[odog11]

Yah. we got all the answers, right ones, wrong ones, dumb ones, insightful ones, head scratchers and ball crackers, even wise ass ones. Problem is in the differentiating between them.

[Cookie Monster]

Easy answer: You cannot be sure if a tipster is a good one with a small sample size. So, you should ride the +EV guys (of course, monitoring if they are still +EV on the long haul). It is like stocks. You know they will earn more on the long haul. You can get out whenever you want, but usually trying to time the market is a lousy business.

OTOH I would never bet my money on tipster plays...

[statnerds]

However, I sometimes find that long term results can be good (2+ years), but are hit by lengthy (2-3 months) bad runs. These often damage my balance and although I know they've made a solid return over a long period of time, should they stay in my portfolio? Will they come good again? Or have their methods changed to the extent they will no longer make a profit?

love that you have a willingness, whether sincere or not, to ask questions and learn.

Gamblers Ruin. long stretches of poor performance should be expected with anyone that you follow over a long period of time. as the volume of plays gets higher and higher these dips will become more pronounced. bet accordingly.

you want them to change their methods. they should want to change their methods. the market is going to adjust and maintain efficacy.

personally, depending on which markets we are discussing here, believe in EMT and that it cannot be beaten longterm, see Gamblers Ruin ref above.

don't use tipsters and don't analyze or cap your own games. analyze and handicap the Market, know where it is heading and then get there first. positive CLV will bring peace to the world.

GL

[TheGoldenGoose]

Long answer short... You ALWAYS go with the Hot Hand.