[ToPHeR]

Ch ballers


Det
Kc
Cle
sd

[csavoia]

Is this money line or spread bets?

[ATSFTW]

Is this money line or spread bets?

This has literally been asked on every page of this thread.

[uup115]

My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->

Ranked in unit of bet size

6 Houston (no play)
6 San Diego -3
5 Philadelphia -4.5

Modified system added games.

7 Arizona -2.5
4 Cincinnati -3
4 New England -8.5

*Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!

[KidSeoul]

Great thread! Thanks so much for the useful info!

[uup115]

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)

6 Houston (no play) N/P
6* San Diego -3/? Pending
5/4 Philadelphia -4.5/-6 W

Modified system added games.

7/5.5 Arizona -2.5/-3.5 W
4/4 Cincinnati -3/-3 P
4/4 New England -8.5/-9 W

This week we went 3-0-1 with a +13.5 unit win with 1 game pending.Total for the season is now 18-14-1 with +7.6 units profit (with one game pending). *San Diego -3 will be a 6, 7 or 5 unit play depending the line available.

[16kredit]

I have been following the contest since last year but damn its so bad that their weekly card comes out on wednesday and the picks are available on saturday... like hell the spreads change so much all the time. For example they had Titans for +2,5. I got in at +1 and for me its a push, they won. Same last week with the Saints Panthers. The site had them for -4,5. In reality after brees was out it jumped -10. Panthers won by 5 if I remember

[Slanina]

Consensus went 2-0 or 1-0-1 depending on your Titans line. And SD tonight was a top consensus play. 5 weeks in and so far it has been doing well.

[jmathes]

It's good to see that this thread is still going. I found my gold mine and if you do your homework you can too. I have literally filtered out about 100 different approaches to this contest. It's all about how you use this information not who you follow. Whatever you do following consensus plays or past winners isn't the answer

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

I have been following the contest since last year but damn its so bad that their weekly card comes out on wednesday and the picks are available on saturday... like hell the spreads change so much all the time. For example they had Titans for +2,5. I got in at +1 and for me its a push, they won. Same last week with the Saints Panthers. The site had them for -4,5. In reality after brees was out it jumped -10. Panthers won by 5 if I remember

Buy points

[Capybara]

It's good to see that this thread is still going. I found my gold mine and if you do your homework you can too. I have literally filtered out about 100 different approaches to this contest. It's all about how you use this information not who you follow. Whatever you do following consensus plays or past winners isn't the answer

LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)

Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!

[Slanina]

LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)

Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!

I thought the same thing but wasn't going to respond. That's a lot of words in the response yet none went to explaining "gold mine" he figured out. I guess some don't like to share information that could possibly help the thread. To each their own.

[jmathes]

LOL, mathes, what kind of post is this? You "found your gold mine" but you're not going to share it or share any tips re: the general ballpark of what you're even talking about? Come on, bro, bad form. ;-)

Anyway, nice work in here yesterday, boys, looks like the systems did well!

Gold mine is a big exaggeration. I have found something that has proved to do well the last 6-7 years but nothing crazy. Unfortunately there is not much history or contestants to this contest beyond that. Some years it yields more units than others but all in all it does pretty well. The worst it has done was 2 years ago and it still produced about 6 units. I have my reservations about sharing things I find because we all know good things always come to an end.

[Capybara]

Gold mine is a big exaggeration. I have found something that has proved to do well the last 6-7 years but nothing crazy. Unfortunately there is not much history or contestants to this contest beyond that. Some years it yields more units than others but all in all it does pretty well. The worst it has done was 2 years ago and it still produced about 6 units. I have my reservations about sharing things I find because we all know good things always come to an end.

No worries, bro, hope it keeps working for ya!

I'll be keeping tabs on Uupie's and Slavina's systems in here as we move forward to see how well they do. As for DFL, looks like the amazing run may be over. Either variance is catching up to him or perhaps he's putting less time into his capping now? Oh well, it was fun for a while last season!

[uup115]

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)

6 Houston (no play) N/P
6/5 San Diego -3/-4 L
5/4 Philadelphia -4.5/-6 W

Modified system added games.

7/5.5 Arizona -2.5/-3.5 W
4/4 Cincinnati -3/-3 P
4/4 New England -8.5/-9 W

This week we went 3-1-1 with a +8 unit win. Total for the season is now 18-13-1 with +2.1 units profit.

[Slanina]

David has 3 teams on both cards. He hit those at a high rate last year. I haven't tracked that stat this year.

D F L 1	KC	DET	ARI	SD	BAL
D F L 2	KC	DET	ARI	SEA	PHI

[Slanina]

Consensus for top 15 finishers last year(12 available):

Arizona - 9 selections

Jets - 8 selections

Miami - 7 selections

Buffalo - 6 selections

Philadelphia - 5 selections


Two additional top 30 finishers last year:

TEAMDHG ------ MIN NYJ MIA SF NYG

PHILDEEZ ------ DEN MIN JAX DET NYJ


Kansas City was selected 3x. No one selected Minnesota except the two top 30 finishers last year. Also, David Lane has KC on both entries. And the two tied in 1st in the Supercontest both have KC.

[Jimmy Proffett]

Consensus for the Top 10 for this season:

Carolina - 6 selections

Arizona - 5 selections

New England - 5 selections

San Diego - 4 selections

Looks like Arizona's the favorite over all channels

[KidSeoul]

Quick question: out of the 5 selections in the super contest for the respective participant, are they weighted? Meaning, is Play 1 their strongest pick or is it just random regardless of the order of the Pick?

[Slanina]

Quick question: out of the 5 selections in the super contest for the respective participant, are they weighted? Meaning, is Play 1 their strongest pick or is it just random regardless of the order of the Pick?

They are all equal plays. They are listed in order they appear on any sportsbook. So Buffalo or Cleveland was first on most cards but not the most selected. If my wording makes any sense.

[Slanina]

Ch Ballers:

Buffalo +3
Lions -3
Texans +1
Chargers +10.5
Jets -6.5

[KidSeoul]

They are all equal plays. They are listed in order they appear on any sportsbook. So Buffalo or Cleveland was first on most cards but not the most selected. If my wording makes any sense.

Thanks for the info!

[uup115]

My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->

Ranked in unit of bet size

9 Arizona -3*
5 Buffalo +3.5*
5 Detroit -3*
4 Jets -6*
4 KC +4

Modified system added games.

6 Arizona -3*
5.5 New England -7.5*
3 Giants +4.5

* BEWARE, Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!

[Slanina]

Top 15 consensus finishes 3-2 on the week. Not sure the overall record but it's on the plus side.

[Slanina]

D F L 1	KC	MIA	DET	WAS	IND
D F L 2	STL	KC	DET	ATL	SD

[Jimmy Proffett]

I was calculating the 2015 Westgate Consensus Picks before; you can actually just find this week's here:

The Even Your Odds homepage will take you to other people's picks like Cowherd, Cousin Sal, other notable personalities.

[Slanina]

I was calculating the 2015 Westgate Consensus Picks before; you can actually just find this week's here:

The Even Your Odds homepage will take you to other people's picks like Cowherd, Cousin Sal, other notable personalities.

Nice. I was just finishing up top 15 consensus of last year's results and then going go to do top 15 this year as well. That just saved me about 20 minutes. Nice find.

[Slanina]

Consensus for top 15 finishers last year (12 available)

Kansas City - 10 selections

New York Jets - 7 selections

Detroit - 6 selections

Arizona - 5 selections

Saint Louis - 5 selections

Jacksonville - 5 selections

Dallas - 5 selections


Records for top 15 finishers last year so far this year (12 available)

18-11-1
17-12-1 (2)
16-12-2
17-13 (2)
16-14
15-14-1
14-14-2
14-16
13-17

May make a different consensus next week as I see some entries a little odd. Probably trying to make up ground?

[mitch51]

...

[ToPHeR]

Ch ballers?

[Slanina]

Ch ballers?

Rams -6.5
Redskins -3
Jags +4.5
Lions +2
Dolphins -4.5


They are hovering around 50% on the season. No one is making money on them either tailing or fading.

[jmathes]

JUST THROWING IN MY 2 CENTS


IND
MIA
STL
PIT
NYJ
DET

[Slanina]

4-1 on consensus plays today with both top plays cashing. Dallas and Arizona are remaining. I don't think these plays have had a losing week since week 2?

[Capybara]

4-1 on consensus plays today with both top plays cashing. Dallas and Arizona are remaining. I don't think these plays have had a losing week since week 2?

I thought there had been a couple of bad weeks. Although I guess you and UUP are not doing the same thing. Looks like he got rocked last weekend and didn't return for Week 7.

So how have you been betting yours? I forget if you outlined that somewhere earlier. I haven't been doing any flat tailing, just using the info in here as a helpful guide. Thanks for posting.

[Slanina]

I thought there had been a couple of bad weeks. Although I guess you and UUP are not doing the same thing. Looks like he got rocked last weekend and didn't return for Week 7.

So how have you been betting yours? I forget if you outlined that somewhere earlier. I haven't been doing any flat tailing, just using the info in here as a helpful guide. Thanks for posting.

I flat bet most of them except I put a little more on top plays. Usually 7 or more selections. There were a few break even weeks so I could've worded it better than I did. Maybe someday this week I'll get a complete record.