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10-03-15 11:41 PM #771
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10-04-15 12:05 AM #772
D F L 1 MIA NYG SF STL DET D F L 2 IND TB CHI WAS CLE
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10-04-15 01:16 AM #773
My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->
Ranked in unit of bet size
6 New Orleans -3*
5 Miami +1.5
5 Kansas City +4*
5 San Fransisco +8*
4 Cleveland +7.5
4 Houston +6*
3 NYG +5*
3 Detroit +10*
*Any full point movement for/against or key number (3,7,10) move for/against will make me adjust my risk +/- by 20%. Shop your lines!Last edited by uup115; 10-04-15 at 01:23 AM.
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10-04-15 02:15 AM #774
Consensus plays for top 15 finishers last year(12 entries available)
New Orleans - 7 selections
Detroit - 6 selections
Oakland - 5 selections
Kansas City - 5 selections
Jacksonville - 5 selections
Cleveland - 5 selections
Saint Louis - 4 selections
Two top 30 finishers last year with record so far this year:
TeamDHG 12-3 ATL TB WAS DEN STL
PhilDeez 10-5 NYJ JAX NYG ARI NO
Consensus for bottom 7 players this year (1 player is 2-13. 6 players are 3-12)
Jacksonville - 5 selections
Saint Louis - 4 selections
Tampa Bay - 3 selections
Sidenote: Only thing that really sticks out is the New Orleans play. 7 of the top 15(12 realistically) selected NO as a play. But the bottom 7 entries only had 1 NO selected. And the worst record (2-13) picked Dallas. So basically take out a 2nd mortgage and put it on NO. I'm kidding, of course.Last edited by Slanina; 10-04-15 at 02:25 AM.
Points Awarded:
Wolfpackofone gave Slanina 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-04-15 08:58 AM #775
any news from CH Ballers picks?
so many picks, what are you guys taking?
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10-04-15 09:02 AM #776
now is the riskiest time to start tailing blindly because of natural regression, you see a guy who is 13-2 and think he knows what is he doing. Next thing you see is he is 26-18 which isn't bad but the ride from 13-2 is.
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10-04-15 09:26 AM #777
I agree with you brooks, last year for most of the time Alcatraz holdings were the nr1. guy. Then after like week 10 he was regressing and he finished in maybe 25-30's
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10-04-15 09:28 AM #778
Start fading the newbs that are 14-1 or 13-2 I say.
Here, in Slanina fashion, are the top plays of the 12 people @ 13-2 or better:
Arizona - 6 selections
Cincinnati - 5 selections
Carolina - 4 selections
Oakland - 4 selections
Jacksonville - 4 selections
So fade these picks all the way to glory!Points Awarded:
Slanina gave Jimmy Proffett 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-04-15 09:30 AM #779
Put an extra 1hr of handicapping than tailing a bam from Vegas who doesn't bet real money.
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10-04-15 09:55 AM #780
I would say the entry fee and the first place prize of about 800k is about as real as it gets.
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10-04-15 09:59 AM #781
Only one Im fading is the Bengals .... the rest are plays for me
Originally Posted by Jimmy Proffett
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10-04-15 10:18 AM #782
I am watching him as well, but you have to account for the picks within the tournament. Proper strategy would be to pick against the leaders to gain ground when behind. Do we know for sure this is what he did, no. DFL has expressed this position and I'm sure others as well do it late. Originally Posted by 16kredit
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10-04-15 11:06 AM #783
So who should o be taking today.
I am confused?
Thought there was one guy we were tailing. Can anyone help please?
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10-04-15 11:21 AM #784
It's honestly up to you. Personally, I tail top consensus plays. I don't mess with the bottom players. I only form that consensus for fun. So I bet New Orleans to Saint Louis from tailing top 15 consensus. Good luck whatever you decide. Originally Posted by csavoia
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10-04-15 11:24 AM #785
CH BALLERS: Originally Posted by 16kredit
Chiefs
Bears
Bucs
Texans
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10-04-15 11:25 AM #786
What's ch ballers name?
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10-04-15 11:28 AM #787
I don't know in the contest. I get his plays by someone who pays for his service. Originally Posted by nickcruz60
Points Awarded:
nickcruz60 gave Slanina 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-04-15 07:23 PM #788
Consensus is 3-2 with the top two plays left to go. Potential to be a solid week. Go Saints!
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10-04-15 10:55 PM #789
one more .... Saints hit also .... what were the points on the Det game from the Consensus plays ?
Last edited by House; 10-04-15 at 11:24 PM.
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10-04-15 10:55 PM #790
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10-05-15 10:53 PM #791
Great week for top consensus plays. Finishing 5-2. Steak get in my belly.
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10-06-15 12:23 AM #792
Hmm, so for Week 4, looks like Slanina's system won, Uupie's system lost, and David went 5-5 to continue his tepid trend thus far.
Should we start posting all the running tallies?
Thanks again for your efforts in here, guys.
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10-06-15 02:48 AM #793
I somehow just discovered this thread. Love what you guys are doing and the work you're putting in. I'll be following very closely.
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10-06-15 11:42 AM #794
(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line)
6/6 New Orleans -3/-3 W
5/5 Miami +1.5/+2 L
5/5 Kansas City +4/+3.5 L
5/4 San Fransisco +8/+7 L
4/3 Cleveland +7.5/+6 W
4/3 Houston +6/+5 L
3/4 NYG +5/+6.5 W
3/3 Detroit +10/+10 W
This week we went 4-4 with a -2.9 unit loss.Total for the season is now 15-14 with -5.9 units profit.
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10-06-15 01:40 PM #795
Hopefully one of us stumbled upon a system/idea that shows profit over an entire season so we all could benefit. Originally Posted by Capybara
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10-07-15 10:43 AM #796
With 1/4 of the season over I am going to start looking at this years leaders and cross reference. Originally Posted by Slanina
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10-09-15 11:52 AM #797
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10-09-15 12:30 PM #798
Sat afternoon picks become available
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10-09-15 01:00 PM #799
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10-10-15 10:01 PM #800
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10-10-15 10:05 PM #801
David's picks this week.
D F L 1 HOU TB BAL PHI SD D F L 2 HOU ATL KC DET SF
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10-10-15 10:07 PM #802
Consensus for top 15 finishers last year(12 available)
San Diego - 8 selections
Philadelphia - 8 selections
Tennessee - 7 selections
Seattle/49ers - 4 selections
Two top 30 finishers last year with their record so far this year:
TeamDHG 15-5 HOU TEN ATL OAK SD
PhilDeez 14-6 HOU JAX PHI ARI NYG
I'm not bothering with bottom players consensus. I don't factor it in much so it's a waste of time.
Only betting top 3 this week. 4 selections isn't convincing enough for me.Last edited by Slanina; 10-10-15 at 10:26 PM.
Points Awarded:
Jimmy Proffett gave Slanina 20 Betpoint(s) for this post.
FUqer gave Slanina 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-10-15 11:15 PM #803
What are the David picks? Who is that?
Thanks for the thread Slanina
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10-10-15 11:19 PM #804
He's the reason this thread was started. His real name is David Frohardt Lane. He won the contest in 2013 and this was created to tail his plays in 2014. He did okay last year. But it morphed into tracking other cappers in the contest. Originally Posted by Jimmy Proffett
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10-10-15 11:29 PM #805
I see..... well, thanks again for the thread Originally Posted by Slanina
btw there are 6 guys this year with records of 16-3-1 or better so far; 5 of them are on Arizona. Food for thought.
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