I remember fondly the team contest ran on 2011. It started as some guys idea, and they even had a draft, but then was open to everyone (as SBR got sponsorship for the contest, offering good prizes).

We had a team of 5 (then) points lenders. I thought lenders were a good pool: people with the ability of saving points, and lending to increase bankroll. My teammates: ThaddeusB, chachi, dngf, mattmc419 (matt is retired, and the rest post seldom anymore).

Somehow I was elected as the captain. Maybe for suggesting a great team name: "Broke Lenders". The pun was too good to pass. But I am impressed on how strategic the contest became on the final week. I wrote simulators, and ran it every day. Today I am impressed on the amount of time and thought I used on the contest to hopefully win a few hundred points. A sample of our messages:

I wrote:

Mixed news yesterday.

Our bet won, so we are still at 3rd place, tied with Team RR (12 picks left, 1 bet placed) and half unit ahead of Team azn (no picks left). But our chances of finishing 3rd are now barely over 50%.

Team azn was lucky yesterday, after the fiasco of the thursday game (they lost 5.5 units betting the over). Yesterday they agreed in a thread to place 5 units of Falcons and last 5 on Dal-Wash Over. One guy went rogue and made his own picks, getting 1-1. Both Team azn coordinated picks won, netting them 8 units. As you know, we countered taking their same bet for 2 units on SNF, to assure being ahead of them if it wins, as happened.

Team Ram Rod was lucky too. I think the team had agreed to stand pat for the week, but one guy went in panic mode when we tied them (just my guess, there is no way to confirm it). He placed 3 bets, two for SNF and the last for MNF. While placing a bet was a right move, the correct strategy would have been placing one on SNF, and keep the last two in reserve for monday if needed. His procedure would only help its team if he goes 3-0. And guess what? He won both his SNF bets, leaving Team RR in a good position, and with one unit placed already, which is the correct strategy. Doh.

Assuming Team RR does not place another pick, we have two options: Standing pat or placing 1 unit. Adding more units would not have any benefit, and would place us behind Team RR if our pick losses. Standing would assure a 4th place (if TRR pick wins) and give us 3rd place if TRR bet pushes or losses. If we place a unit (we do not know which bet TRR picked), we would get 3rd place if our pick wins, and 4th or 5th depending on TRR result.

To me, it is clear. In both cases we are one coin toss from 3rd place, but have 4th place tied up if we pass. There are two other factors in favor of standing:

1.- The spread is in 10, a key number pushing about 5%. Most squares prefer taking sides than totals (about 80% of bets go to sides), So, if they took a side as expected, we are about 53% of winning. If he took the total it is a coin toss if he got 36.5 (or slightly better if he took 37).

2.- There is a small possibility of more members of TRR making a pick. That would work in our favor if they get 1-1 or any other non positive score. As they look badly coordinated, they could even place opposite bets (one over and one under), which would automatically give us the win.

In sum, everything points to take a pass as our best chance.

Wow, I had too much spare time then. And some team mates contributed with similar smart comments. I would cheerfully play on such a team contest this year if SBR opens it. Please, please, please, SBR, make it happen...