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Beating the closing line. Does it really matter?
Some people say it means everything and that if you can beat the closer you will win long term. If that was the case you could just live bet every game and beat the closing line. So this alone kind of debunks that theory. I've never placed a live bet so I'm not sure if they're all -115 or whatnot but I just thought of this when I was watching an old Justin7 video.
Please tell me you are kidding about the live in-game comment? If not just give up gambling and re-enroll in a basic stats course at your local community college.Originally Posted by UntilTheNDofTimE
Doesn't debunk that theory at all. It is a completely different bet once the game has started.
I haven't placed a non playoff series wager in 3-4 years. I gave up sports gambling a while back. I still mull the boards for entertainment.
lol live bets are irrelevant
if the team was -140 and they go down several runs and are +300, that's not beating the closer.
Beating the closer consistently is difficult. Since betting markets are efficient, if someone were able to do so, he or she would be a long term winner.
Of course it's a different bet. But if a line Closed Spurs -5/Heat +5 and halfway through the first quarter you bet Spurs -1 you would be beating the closer. I understand the wager has negative equity because the line has shifted but that changes nothing in terms of beating the closing line. Every NBA line shifts 1.5-2 points so you can't say that that line wasn't a posibility pre game to beat the closer.
Live betting is a whole different entity
I don't think a good idea to compare closing lines to love betting lines
Let's say before Tip-off I notice 4 nba games that you could of beat the closing line by 1-2 points.
Let's say a line opened -5/+5 and closed at -2/+2. I could just follow these 4 games and when an oppurtunity to live bet presents itself where I can beat the closer I bet it. This would be the same as had I did it pre game since it was a game that presented an oppurtunity to beat the closer
What's the difference between having Team A pre game at -3(-110) when the line closed at -5, and live betting Team A at -3(-110). One bet is sharp and one isn't when it's the same wager.
Think beating the closing line hasn't anything to so with live betting
If you consistently beat the closing line you would make money on a good basis espicially if you're hedging or trading
dear lord...member since 2008? Are you serious?
Problem is you miss wire to wire winners where live betting line is never better than closing line
With all due respect to the OP
Good God, there are like 93 closing line threads in the history of this here website.
Beating the closing line is more relevant if you are betting big $. If. You are sharp and bet big money, you could move the line yourself and therefore beat it. but if you are a Joe Schmoe betting minor $, you aren't moving any lines and would only beat the ones that move in your favor, which is not easy to consistently do
btw the head linesman of pinnacle says if you beat the closer consistently, you are a winner, I think he's a guy to believe
This can't be a serious thread....it just can't be
I don't even know what this means. 72 units over what period of time? And how is one trial conclusive?But in any case, the quote serves its purpose.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2009074-how-often-does-spread-line-movement-really-matter.html
If he was betting with the local and from the paper surely local would cut him off after a while
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