Originally Posted by darkhat
Is that a no?
Thanks.
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03-12-14 10:40 AM #36
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03-12-14 10:42 AM #37
Darker never misses a post and has intel on ALL of us here
i would tread lightly but guys are obviously free to do what they wantNomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: darkhat
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03-12-14 10:43 AM #38
As would I. They don't exist.. feel bad for the guy he is actually talking about.. doesnt sound like great situation. Originally Posted by Ted Sheckler
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03-12-14 10:46 AM #39
how sad is it that people like you actually worry about a cyber space reputation? Originally Posted by darkhat
here to make money and talk about what seems to be a great value bet.. your other nonsense and made up bs isn't needed
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03-12-14 10:46 AM #40
Back to the point of the thread.
How much were they last year for this future bet? And what were they before yesterday? or was the futures not available. Big addition with Talib, wonder if that changed it a tiny bit or not.
The offense will be there, no doubt. Definitely should have some hedging opportunities in the playoffs, like you mentioned if Manning stay's upright.
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03-12-14 10:47 AM #41
Originally Posted by manny24
Darker never misses a post and has intel on ALL of us here
i would tread lightly but guys are obviously free to do what they want
orale
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03-12-14 10:49 AM #42
Yea, decker would be nice, but I don't see it happening. Peyton can turn guys like austin collie into an eric decker though, so I would rather them spend that on beefing up that defense as they have been. Getting an allen or ware to go along with von miller could be dangerous.. both are definitely old, but could still help out that defense IF healthy Originally Posted by Ted Sheckler
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03-12-14 10:53 AM #43
Outside of peytons health, worst case scenario is you hedge every round of the playoffs to ensure your money back. Have to think hedging odds will be great too, considering the current state of the AFC. Should be able to get 3 or 4 to 1 on your money by betting the money line on a team like the chargers or chiefs if that is what it comes down to Originally Posted by Ted Sheckler
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03-12-14 10:57 AM #44
Originally Posted by dlunc3
your reputation on SBR is everything
how people view you on here is what gets you women in real life and makes you big money in gambling
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03-12-14 11:13 AM #45
Points Awarded:
darkhat gave Smoke 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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03-12-14 11:16 AM #46
sharp as a tac Originally Posted by Smoke
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03-12-14 12:50 PM #47
The odds could be 900/1 and it would not matter. Can you name the last team that lost a Superbowl to get into the game the very next year? That would be Buffalo back in 1994. Winners have repeated (New England in 2004-05 and Denver in 1998-99), but it has been 20 years since a loser got back in. This is the type of wager that pays for all of those fancy neon lights at the Casino's. Denver gets the NFC West this season. They also have an away game at New England. That is enough to stop them from getting home field advantage, and that will stop them from going to the Superbowl. Denver is NOT going back to the big game.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: GunShard
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03-12-14 12:53 PM #48
where ya been at big d?? Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
good to see you posting again bruh
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03-12-14 12:54 PM #49
Why would you stay in a 2 star hotel?
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03-12-14 01:03 PM #50
Still looking.. heading down to phills spring training and my buddy is making the plans.. He sent over that hotel.. doesnt look too hot. Anyone have any recommendations? Originally Posted by boeing power
Why would you stay in a 2 star hotel?
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03-12-14 01:07 PM #51
you are missing the point entirely.. all Denver needs to do is get into the playoffs and you can hedge if you go by anticipated lines in the terrible AFC.. Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
Denver is not my pick to win the SB, but they are my pick in regards to the best value available..
At 9-1, I should be able to guarantee myself 1k or 2 as long as they make the playoffs, which is a pretty safe assumption as long as peyton is healthy
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03-12-14 01:14 PM #52
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03-12-14 01:14 PM #53
just added DeMarcus ware too
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03-12-14 01:21 PM #54
keep up coming.. they gotta go all in for peytons last season..
Already looking at 5 new pro bowl caliber players that were not there to end the 2013 season
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03-12-14 01:23 PM #55
Not going to happen. Which game are you going to start "Hedging" on? The AFC Championship game? The AFC Conference Semi's? Here is how this can, and will work. You have 9-1 and have a grand on it. Now you decide to Hedge, and wager 1000 on the Conference Semi Final guaranteeing yourself a break even if Denver loses. You do the same thing the following week and then Denver loses. Now you have lost everything plus. You also had better look at those odds because those are the odds for Denver to WIN the Superbowl, not just play in the game. Denver is 4-1 to win the AFC. Nice try. Originally Posted by dlunc3
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03-12-14 01:54 PM #56
Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
If he had 1,000 to win 9000.
Not sure what odds were last year, But San Diego was probably +300...Wager 500 to win 1500. Now you got 1500 you need to win back.
New England was probably +150 or so Wager 1500 to win 2250 (up 750 on the initial wager)...Now you gotta win back 3K on Superbowl.
Wager 4000 on Seattle ML, now you have Seattle 4000 to win 5,000....Denver essentially 7K to win 9K
So He's up 2k if Denver win
And he's up 2K if Seattle wins.
Bet makes perfect sense, if Broncos play like they did last year and odds are roughly the same throughout the playoffs. That's IF all that works out the same. So yes it's VERY possible for him to hedge 3 games and make money on the 9-1 wager.
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03-12-14 01:54 PM #57
What is giving you the idea that Denver will even money in the conference semis? Obviously we have no clue what will happen... but looking at last year for example, chargers opened at +400 vs denver. So if you want ensure that you break even, you bet $250 to win 1k on Chargers.. if that loses, you now have $1,250 invested to win 9k. Then the next week, again going back to last year, Patriots opened at +190. So again, to just ensure that you break even, you only need to bet $658. If that loses, then you now have $1,908 invested to win 9k. So then comes the super bowl.. Say you want to guarantee yourself profit-- again, going back to last year, Seattle opened at +105. So in that case you, if you bet $4,400 on Seattle, you guarantee yourself $2,700 profit no matter who wins. Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
Obviously the numbers will be totally different next year... but either way, your argument is completely flawed.
As long as Denver gets to the conference semis, you should easily be able to ensure that you will win your money back at worst.
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03-12-14 01:55 PM #58
Originally Posted by Ted Sheckler
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03-12-14 02:01 PM #59
It's not rocket science to figure out hedging IF everything is similar to last year, which it should be...Would like to see odds before season started...I would think Denver this year will be better, therefore if the same teams play in playoffs, there would be even better odds for hedging.
Last edited by Ted Sheckler; 03-12-14 at 02:12 PM.
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03-12-14 02:30 PM #60
Broncos sure are making a run for it this year. All they need to do is replace Manning and I'll jump on that bet myself. Otherwise, it's all just one big wet dream like the one they had this past September, October, November, December and January.
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03-12-14 05:59 PM #61
Seems like a good call! Didn't see the DEN future drop that much before the season.
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03-12-14 06:03 PM #62
I placed $100 on the Seahawks at 6.5 to 1 odds.
My bet against your bet.
Let's see who gets the closest to the super bowl, if not win it all.
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03-12-14 07:25 PM #63
If I had to pick I would take either sf or sea to win it all.. Based on the value due to the weak afc that Denver plays in which should provide great hedging opportunities, I feel Denver is the safest bet to ensure at least minimal profit or money back. Def not a bad bet going with Seattle though. Bol Originally Posted by GunShard
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: GunShard
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03-12-14 10:04 PM #64
Good gamble, don't listen to these other idiots. Gambling is what it is gambling. If you win great, lose big deal. These fools here act like they always make the right gambling decision, I say all them, every single one of them give whatever they made profit wise right back. You have the #1 offense returning and defense that has the potentially nightmarishly good. If the Broncos are fully healthy by playoff time no way anyone in the AFC beats them.
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03-12-14 10:12 PM #65
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03-12-14 10:14 PM #66
wow Originally Posted by byronbb
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03-13-14 01:12 AM #67
IIRC, the last Super Bowl loser to win it the following year were the perfect Miami Dolphins from 1970-something. But they weren't hindered by having "Pick-6" Manning as a QB, so that is certainly something that worked in their favor. Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
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03-13-14 03:10 AM #68
Seattle might win it again. Those boys are tough and Manning is an old man.
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03-13-14 05:57 AM #69
Manning of course is the key, he is one hard shot away from losing your bet. Good Luck guy.
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03-13-14 06:47 AM #70
Agree completely.. Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808
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