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Friday's Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends and a Look at CBB this Weekend
By Doug Upstone
A couple of the college basketball games have seen minor line moves but the NBA board has numbers flying in all sorts of directs on the sides and totals. The actual largest line move is on the 76ers total, heading downward, as they have decided that trying to catch Milwaukee to be the worst team in the NBA is a worthwhile goal the rest of the season in trading away several players. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NBA – (803) CLEVELAND at (804) TORONTO 7:05 E FSOH, TSN2
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on their longest winning streak in nearly four years at six in a row (6-0 ATS), but not everyone is impressed. During this period three of the wins have come on the road, however, those betting basketball are not convinced with W’s at Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia and instead see a Cavs club that is 8-20 and 10-18 ATS away and they prefer Toronto at home. The opening line had Cleveland at +6.5 and that was jettisoned to +9. The Raptors are 16-6 ATS against teams averaging 83 or more shots a contest, yet have failed to cover three straight versus Cleveland. Doug's Take – Lean Cleveland
NBA – (807) NEW YORK at (808) ORLANDO 7:05 E MSG, FSFL
As bad a season as New York has delivered, Orlando has been worse and their most recent losing stretch has reached three games. The Magic are like a plow horse at the start of games, having not led at the end of the first quarter in eight contests. With what has to be thought of as poor mental preparation and the fact Orlando has lost eight straight (8-0 ATS) to the Knicks, bettors making basketball picks have boosted New York from -1 to -3. Besides their pitiful record in this matchup, the Magic are also 10-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 the last two seasons. Doug's Take – New York covers
NBA – (811) DENVER at (812) CHICAGO 8:05 E ESPN
Chicago is one of the top Under teams in the NBA at 32-20-1 and they have enhanced that image with a recent 8-2-1 UNDER spurt. Riding a four-game winning streak, the Bulls prepare to face Denver, who is lacking for guards due to injury and trades and the total has tumbled from 194 to 190. Chicago is 18-7 UNDER playing in the Windy City and is 12-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. Doug's Take – Lean Under
NBA – (815) SAN ANTONIO at (816) PHOENIX 9:05 E KENS, FSAZ
Finally! This is San Antonio’s last stop on its annual Rodeo Road Trip which will game No. 9 on the road, having last played a home game on Feb. 1. The Spurs caught a break, literally, with the All-Star break which seems to have refreshed them as they have returned and won at rugged locales against the Clippers and the Trailblazers. This will be their third road game in four nights and NBA aficionados studying the betting odds have chased the Spurs from a Pick to -1.5. In spite of the Suns fantastic season, this line moves makes sense because San Antonio has long been a bad matchup for Phoenix and the Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in the downtown desert. Doug's Take – San Antonio covers
What to consider and watch for from the key college basketball games this weekend.
The Louisville and Cincinnati conflict will come down to who can make shots, as both teams are very good defensively. The Bearcats are going after something not many teams do which is sweep the Cardinals in the regular season.
Wisconsin at Iowa is not only for third place in the Big Ten, but it has possible seeding implications for the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers are one of the best teams in the country in retreating on defense but Iowa still has to pressure off a defensive rebound and go to the rim. Rebounding will be very important in this matchup.
After scuffling the first part of January, St. John’s has gotten hot and is 6-0 this month and taken 9 of 10 (8-2 ATS). A win at Villanova would seemingly punch the Johnnies NCAA tourney ticket and they become a very treacherous opponent based on seeding. Nova’s transition defense is sometimes lacking and this is an area the Redmen, err, the Red Storm could exploit.
UCLA might be the best team in the Pac-12 right now, but figures to receive a challenge against a Stanford club which can rise to the challenge. The Cardinal cannot trade buckets with the Bruins talented offense and expect to win.
Act 2 of Syracuse and Duke should be very entertaining and the stakes are even higher with both teams coming in off losses.
Arizona survived at Utah and will be tested again at Colorado. The Buffs are still a very solid offensive club in Boulde, even without Spencer Dinwiddie. They will need great ball movement to attack the Wildcats exceptional defense. You should watch just to hear Bill Walton and Dave Pasche, the best pairing in college basketball for wackiness.
Terrific Mountain West matchup with San Diego State at New Mexico late Saturday. The Lobos have to keep scoring because the Aztecs will go thru scoring droughts, but S.D. State is a lot Arizona right now, fantastic on defense and finding ways to score.
The Big Ten title probably on the line with Michigan State at Michigan. Offensive execution will be the determining factor.
Doug's Top Trends
NBA Totals Trend
Philadelphia is 4-17 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.
NBA Totals Trend
Detroit is 19-4 OVER playing with double revenge this season.
CBB ATS Trend
Princeton is 12-1 ATS off a close road loss by three points or less the past 17 years.
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Originally Posted by RonPaul2008
