Saturday starts off with a 2pm ET play in the AAC. It's probably the squarest play on the board, but it's one that I feel is a really good play. I'm very surprised by the opening number. UConn is coming off a tough loss to Houston, in which they fell behind big early on and battled their back behind Shabazz Napier. The Huskies cannot afford to fall to 0-2 in the conference and I'm expecting a much more focused team tomorrow. The Huskies know how to play in close games this season, with their three most quality wins coming over Top-100 competition by only one point each. This has shown that UConn has some real mettle and can hang tough. Wins against Maryland and Indiana came on neutral court and a nice victory over Florida came at home.
One of the biggest reasons for my play on UConn is the sloppy ball control of the SMU Mustangs. They rank as one of the worst teams in the country in turnovers on the offensive end and I feel that UConn can take advantage of this with their stellar shooting and veteran guards. Something isn't right with this SMU squad, as Larry Brown coached teams usually value their possessions and take care of the basketball. I know the Mustangs boast a pretty good defense (another trait of Larry Brown's teams) and I expect nothing to change tomorrow. This should be an absolute dogfight, but I'm banking on the vets from UConn to stand tall and get a much needed road, conference victory.
I'll be very interested in the posted total on this game as well. I'll be looking for something in the 125-128 range and a possible Over play with the right number. We have two very similar teams here and I'm strictly taking the better team that needs the victory MUCH more after their AAC opener. I'm sure this play will be a public favorite and I'd expect this game to move down to a PK by tipoff.
UConn +1.5
More plays to come later on. I will use this thread throughout the day. Goodluck everyone!