1. 11-05-13 04:06 PM #1
    stevenash
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    I'm tired of saying this, but, in the NFL......

    ....... what happens one week doesn't have much bearing on what happens next week.
    I get this often, "absolutely does", I keep saying "it doesn't", and then get looked at like I got three heads.

    Cases in point, I can list them forever, but let's start with recent games.

    Jets get mauled by Bengals, public perception is Jets will get buried by Saints next week.
    What happened?

    Bengals crushed Jets last week, Bengals will bury Dolphin, right?
    How did that work out?

    Packers whip Vikings by 13 a week ago, expect more of the same versus the Bears?
    Even without Rodgers getting hurt, Bears still cover that game.

    Now, I am not saying each and every time, for instance, there are certain teams you can fade in back to back situations on the road, like Saints and Seahawks.

    Purpose of this thread, a lot of bettors place way to much emphasis on how a certain team performed the previous week, and base their wager solely or place too much of a premium on that angle when making their bets the next week.

    Don't ignore the teams performance from the previous week, look at the updated IR and stuff, but don't overplay that angle, it's not nearly as important as some think.
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  2. 11-05-13 04:21 PM #2
    ZetaPsi808
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    raiders got blown out vs the eagles last week

    they will cover 7.5 vs the giants this week
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  3. 11-05-13 04:25 PM #3
    stevenash
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    ^
    As a lifelong Giant fan, I can tell you Raiders always give them fits.
    Raiders lifetime are 7 and 4 straight up lifetime v. NYG, and must be considered this week
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  4. 11-05-13 04:32 PM #4
    t-wizzle
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    Captain Obvious over here.
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  5. 11-05-13 05:58 PM #5
    stevenash
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    ^
    Maybe, but some people still don't get it.

    They all can't be sharp as a tack, flawless handicappers like yourself.
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  6. 11-05-13 06:01 PM #6
    No coincidences
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    Couldn't agree more. Same goes for betting and matchups in general.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...king-bets.html
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  7. 11-05-13 06:02 PM #7
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Captain Obvious over here.
    You'd be surprised by how many posters get swept up in recent trends/results vs. looking at how teams match up against each other and the motivation of that given week.
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  8. 11-05-13 06:02 PM #8
    Kermit
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    Speaking of never knowing what is going to happen, those asshats at CBS fantasy sports said that Big Ben and Nick Foles were sits this week because they were going to suck. Oh yeah, and Brady was the bust of the week.

    Chad Johnson was the ONLY guy that said Brady would have a big game.
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  9. 11-05-13 06:03 PM #9
    tatddy
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    Only people who will heed this already know this. You are trying to help the 90% clown base at Sbr understand how to think?

    Good luck with that Nasher.
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  10. 11-05-13 06:03 PM #10
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You'd be surprised by how many posters get swept up in recent trends/results vs. looking at how teams match up against each other and the motivation of that given week.

    Yes there are a ton of gamblers who don't have a clue. I think a lot of those people are new to it. If you are a few years in and still using trends to make bets then you need to get a new hobby.
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  11. 11-05-13 06:06 PM #11
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Only people who will heed this already know this. You are trying to help the 90% clown base at Sbr understand how to think?

    Good luck with that Nasher.
    Even if he bumps the number down to 89.9%, he's done his job. This is a topic worth exploring. It sounds simple and stupid, but bettors need to start thinking beyond the trends they read about on ESPN and Covers.com and worrying about what happened last week or -- even worse -- last year.
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  12. 11-05-13 06:15 PM #12
    lakerboy
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    So I guess nasher is cleaning up in the nfl.
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  13. 11-05-13 06:23 PM #13
    Big Bear
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    Nasher what do you like this week in NFL?

    Based on this Theory

    49ers should crush Panthers since Panthers have looked so good over the last 4 games...

    Also Saints should crush Cowgirls since Saints sucked last week right?
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  14. 11-05-13 06:23 PM #14
    stevenash
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    @LB
    Just doing what I can.
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  15. 11-05-13 06:27 PM #15
    stevenash
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    BB
    Looking at Oakland, seven and a hook is mighty inviting.
    That's too many points to give a down NYG team.

    Which brings me to my original point, there will be many who say "but Nasher, G-Men have won two straight"
    Yeah, true, but how convincing were those two wins?
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  16. 11-05-13 06:28 PM #16
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Based on this Theory

    49ers should crush Panthers since Panthers have looked so good over the last 4 games...
    It's not something you can apply to just everything. He never implied it was.

    He's just saying stop looking backward and concentrate on the given week and the given matchup.
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  17. 11-05-13 06:31 PM #17
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    It's not something you can apply to just everything. He never implied it was.

    He's just saying stop looking backward and concentrate on the given week and the given matchup.

    Exactly.
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  18. 11-05-13 06:33 PM #18
    Monitor-Tan
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    BB
    Looking at Oakland, seven and a hook is mighty inviting.
    That's too many points to give a down NYG team.

    Which brings me to my original point, there will be many who say "but Nasher, G-Men have won two straight"
    Yeah, true, but how convincing were those two wins?
    Gmen is getting Andre Brown back and he's, better, faster and more talented then the other 2 clowns, and I felt that he was better then Wilson. Andre Brown does one thing better and he can pass protect. I'd be careful this week, got a feeling Gmen wins by double digits.
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  19. 11-05-13 06:33 PM #19
    pavyracer
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    Falcons got mauled by the Panthers last week but they will destroy the Seahawks this week.

    That's how NFL works.
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  20. 11-05-13 06:36 PM #20
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Falcons got mauled by the Panthers last week but they will destroy the Seahawks this week.

    That's how NFL works.

    Oh god you are too good to be true.
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  21. 11-05-13 06:41 PM #21
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    ....... what happens one week doesn't have much bearing on what happens next week.
    I get this often, "absolutely does", I keep saying "it doesn't", and then get looked at like I got three heads.

    Cases in point, I can list them forever, but let's start with recent games.

    Jets get mauled by Bengals, public perception is Jets will get buried by Saints next week.
    What happened?

    Bengals crushed Jets last week, Bengals will bury Dolphin, right?
    How did that work out?

    Packers whip Vikings by 13 a week ago, expect more of the same versus the Bears?
    Even without Rodgers getting hurt, Bears still cover that game.

    Now, I am not saying each and every time, for instance, there are certain teams you can fade in back to back situations on the road, like Saints and Seahawks.

    Purpose of this thread, a lot of bettors place way to much emphasis on how a certain team performed the previous week, and base their wager solely or place too much of a premium on that angle when making their bets the next week.

    Don't ignore the teams performance from the previous week, look at the updated IR and stuff, but don't overplay that angle, it's not nearly as important as some think.
    those of us who do their best gambling in the NFL out of all sports... already know this

    thanks for the reminder tho
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  22. 11-05-13 06:41 PM #22
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monitor-Tan View Post
    Gmen is getting Andre Brown back and he's, better, faster and more talented then the other 2 clowns, and I felt that he was better then Wilson. Andre Brown does one thing better and he can pass protect. I'd be careful this week, got a feeling Gmen wins by double digits.
    I am a big AB guy myself, he's not going to get a heavy dose of snaps this week, and how effective is he going to be 10 weeks into the season and just starting out is what I am wondering.
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  23. 11-05-13 06:43 PM #23
    jjgold
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    All Sports are random whether you like it or not
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  24. 11-05-13 06:44 PM #24
    rm18
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    Panthers might not lose again until they play the Chiefs in the Superbowl
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  25. 11-05-13 06:48 PM #25
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    Panthers might not lose again until they play the Chiefs in the Superbowl
    I'll take that action.
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  26. 11-05-13 06:51 PM #26
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Oh god you are too good to be true.
    Bet the Seahawks and see your money burn. Falcons beat both Rams and Buccaneers easily where Seahawks should have lost to both.
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  27. 11-05-13 06:52 PM #27
    tatddy
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    Pavy you're lost here pal. Lynch will have his game of the year here. Zero chance atl win
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  28. 11-05-13 06:52 PM #28
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Bet the Seahawks and see your money burn. Falcons beat both Rams and Buccaneers easily where Seahawks should have lost to both.

    Man did you not read the OP?

    You are so lost it's not even funny.
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  29. 11-05-13 06:54 PM #29
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Pavy you're lost here pal. Lynch will have his game of the year here. Zero chance atl win
    I would take a side bet that the Falcons will beat the Seahawks. This is guaranteed.
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  30. 11-05-13 06:56 PM #30
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I would take a side bet that the Falcons will beat the Seahawks. This is guaranteed.
    How many pts you got pal? Leggoo
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  31. 11-05-13 06:56 PM #31
    rm18
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    Seahawks played bad last week they should play better and Atlanta is a a bad team not a good team with an off week
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  32. 11-05-13 06:59 PM #32
    lakerboy
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    I agree with pavy. I think atl will beat sea as well.
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  33. 11-05-13 07:00 PM #33
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I agree with pavy. I think atl will beat sea as well.
    I wish you guys were right, as a 49ers fan, but it ain't happening pal.
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  34. 11-05-13 07:02 PM #34
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I agree with pavy. I think atl will beat sea as well.

    That's fine. It's the logic. You can't make that shit up.

    Because Falcons beat rams and bucs easily and seahawks did not win as easily.
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  35. 11-05-13 07:03 PM #35
    rm18
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    I dont care if you think it is a sucker bet Philly has no business being a dog vs. Green Bay
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