[No coincidences]

I was thinking about this tonight after a ridiculous weekend in which I somehow cashed big plays on Penn State and the Patriots and another on the Red Sox. None of them really had any business cashing; I suppose you could say PSU and NE were in control for more of the game than not, but they were both dead in the water near the end until their opponents fvcked it all up. Boston, meanwhile, was just a total fluke.

Anyway, between the three plays, I had close to a $1,000 swing -- crazy for a guy who bets $20 per unit. So I'm sitting here looking at my account balance thinking about being on the "right" side of the "wrong" play three times. This, one week after having Northwestern and a bunch of other shitty beats that had me wondering WTF I was doing, feeling like I was on the "wrong" side of the "right" play.

I know bettors who break down a game every which way. They have systems, study matchups, analyze data, trends, etc. I put a lot of time into capping games, but these guys are workaholics when it comes to research and doing their homework. I don't go anywhere near that far. Sometimes I feel like I should. Sometimes I think it's a huge waste of time.

The smart response here is probably to not worry as much about the end result -- that in the long run, if you put the time in and don't take short cuts, you will be rewarded for making the right play more often than not. The longer I'm in this game, though, the more I question and wonder if you can legitimately be a "sports investor," as LTA liked to call it back in the day, as opposed to a guy who is either a lucky schmuck or an unlucky sonofabitch on any given play no matter how much effort you put into preparing for a bet.

Anyway....

[Darkside Magick]

Suckers......occam's razor!!!!

[Gee]

If your legwork is showing a positive result (and enough of a positive result to offset the time you put into it, unless you genuinely enjoy doing the legwork as a hobby, which is fine too) after 1000 plays, then I'd say it is worth it.

[peacebyinches]

put dat work in homie. regardless of whether you win or lose, you gonna keep your self-respect for dat work bro.


Damned if I don't, and damned if a homie do
Now watch a young mothafnucka pull the trigger too
RAISE UP, and don't let them see ya cry
Dry your eyes, young homietime for do or die
I pack a pistol in my pocket, ready on my Glock
Ain't no time for a homie to even kok shit
I done seen a motha fnuka peep pain
at point blank range cause he slept on the game
Ain't a damn thing changed, they shakin the dice
Now roll em if you can't stand pain better hold em
Cause ain't no tellin what ya might roll
You might fold catch AIDS from a slight cold
You better live ya life to the fullest
Be quick to kill a bull got a pistol
mothafnuka better pull it
And even if they kill me
They can never take the life of a young G

do dat work homie. get that work in.

[Ra77er]

As I take a swig of my scotch, I must say I too ponder these sentiments Mr Coins.

[peacebyinches]

yeah everyone who's answered so far must be drunk and high as all hell

good advice from that peacebyinches fellow though

[Cuse0323]

The research and legwork is the best part of gambling to me.

[Ernie Mccracken]

I look over stats for fun, but recognize it's a waste of time to think I'm going to beat the books with math and statistical models. I'd have a better chance at beating Lebron 1v1 or going yard on Verlander. NFL lines are sharp as diamond coated diamonds with diamond filling.

[Deuce]

Staring at lines for 12 hours a day is a waste of time, yes.

[Ralphie Halves]

Even if I had the time, it's better spent on other things. I tail people that do all that, use labby lines, and I'm actually a winning sportsbettor. I win at too slow a rate for most people's taste, but screw it, it's so worth it.

Time > Money

[seaborneq]

Know the basics, some trends, injuries, historical data, and a few side stories, go with your gut feeling, then let the chips fall where they may.

[Sam Odom]

These Penn State, Patriots and Red Sox close winners are part of our 'game'... Just like all of those close losers


.

[Sam Odom]

The longer I'm in this game, though, the more I question and wonder if you can legitimately be a "sports investor,"

There is more to it than picking winners

[t-wizzle]

All that legwork is unnecessary. Guys like Louisvillekid who don't have a life and can afford to sit around all day breaking down games and doing writeups are wasting time.

Just look at how the line moved, consider situational factors, and go with your gut.

[jjgold]

Its just a numbers game and pure luck

Breaking down games mean nothing as you cannot predict turnovers and injuries which decide most games as far as point spread covers

[Russian Rocket]

Its just a numbers game and pure luck

Breaking down games mean nothing as you cannot predict turnovers and injuries which decide most games as far as point spread covers

JJ how the fukk can you predict injuries...c'mon now

[Sam Odom]

не можем предсказать, обороты и травм

[Russian Rocket]

не можем предсказать, обороты и травм

[Reload]

Have cashed just as many tickets with three minutes of thought compared to three days of thought. Still better to put work in when you can, but it can be pretty unrewarding thanks to how these games play out.

[Russian Rocket]

Have cashed just as many tickets with three minutes of thought compared to three days of thought. Still better to put work in when you can, but it can be pretty unrewarding thanks to how these games play out.

always put work in

[Sam Odom]

Just wait til college baskets & NBA get into full swing... It will be 'shoot from the hip' time

[billysink]

"Legwork" is simply a means to quantify value or lack thereof. "Legwork" will never be reflected in a won lost record, it is only a piece of that puzzle.

If "Legwork" in its pure form gives as many reasons to walk away from a bet as no value was recognized; no win or loss can be realized. It is just as often the events you do not play that make or break you.

Value is everything. Wins and losses are merely a bi-product of that process.

Those that can quantify value in three minutes are forgetting the myriads of work done previously to lead to that perception. This is a job; years of experience and oversite are retained and utilized at any given moment. The thought process in those three minutes was likely developed over quite a period of time.

There is no way to play this cheap. Coin flippers and dart chuckers never win. They did not take the time or possess the requisite knowledge to make an assessment of value.

[wantitall4moi]

There is more to it than picking winners

you know better than that. Pick a Su winner youre going to cover the vast majority of the time and with enough ML dog winners that will easily overcome the fav that win SU but do not cover for you.

That being said putting a lot of time into 'handicapping' is a waste of effort. The only 'legwork' you need to do is looking for the best vig and odds on the team you like.

I used to put hours into that shit a week. Total waste of time, now I put less than an hour a week in and do just as well as I used to. But then again I am not a big football bettor nor am I betting to make a living anymore just 'for fun'. But I dont think that matters either.

Seriously just look at the match up the week before WITHOUT SPREADS and circle teams you think will win, if you cant pick a winner in a particular game pass on it, you will have more than enough circles to have plenty of action.

Then you just take those circles and bet them, if you circled a fav lay the points, unless it is 7.5 or more then you have to evaluate it a little more. If you circled a dog find the best ML you can and bet it, dont dick around with points.

[Sam Odom]

There is more to it than picking winners

you know better than that.

wanti , most of us have to take advantage of the offshore perks to show a profit. Sammy said most of us

Sammy is one of them

[Scratch 23]

You can find gems in the rough sorting through numbers. For an example, I've had one 3 star play this yr in college football and two 2 star plays. First week of season, Ark. ST. was playing Ark.Pine-Bluff. Line opened at 26 and got steamed up to 35-36. Looking at my handy Phil Steele college annual i saw that ARk st. had a 200-10 pt edge(3 games) while facing like opponents over the last 3 yrs. They won easily. The following week, ARk ST. traveled to ARkansas. The step up in class either was overlooked or just ignored. Arkansas smashed them. This last week i was looking at the Bama game. Huge number 28. And Bama had just come off of two non covers of huge numbers (colorado st, georgia st). But again looking at my handy Phil Steele magazine, I saw that when Saban plays weak SEC foes, he has no problem running it up. So anyway, some data is very useful and takes time to find. Othertimes, like saturday, i look at a line like NIU -23 over the Zips and think there is no way they dont beat them by 30 if they play their game. A couple fluke plays in the 1st quarter and it didnt matter what angle i had, it was wrong. Part of the game. One thing im assured of though after many years of gambling. Right or wrong, good or bad, go contrarian (take the vegas side) of all the prime time games. I'm sure this has been a solid winner over the years, not even a doubt in my mind.

[artyfudgepacker]

i think the key finding the rite source of information . i used to spend to much to capping to many games .now bout 2 to 3 hr a day is good .

[artyfudgepacker]

hell yea thats gona be fun sammy

Just wait til college baskets & NBA get into full swing... It will be 'shoot from the hip' time

[v1y]

my five figure profit for three straight years means i'm clearly a sucker for actually watching the sport i bet on.

[TPowell]

can't handicap games, way too many variables. Have to use your intuition mostly. You HANDICAP (or what I like to call price) PROP bets. It is by far the easiest money you can make for your time invested

[No coincidences]

Staring at lines for 12 hours a day is a waste of time, yes.

Your reading comprehension sucks.

[No coincidences]

These Penn State, Patriots and Red Sox close winners are part of our 'game'... Just like all of those close losers


.

I agree, but therein lies the question.

Can you imagine correctly spending the time capping a Northwestern cover, a Saints cover, or a Michigan cover, only to have the rug pulled out from under you all three times? I had the NW game nailed and lost a pretty decent amount of money. I didn't have the angle I thought I did to go big on the NE or the PSU games -- just got bailed out by flukeish situations. It's all part of the "game," true, but why put so much blood and sweat into something that, in the end, winds up being a coin flip either way more often than it should?

[No coincidences]

Have cashed just as many tickets with three minutes of thought compared to three days of thought. Still better to put work in when you can, but it can be pretty unrewarding thanks to how these games play out.

Succinctly put. That's what I'm getting at for the guys who are real workhorses with their systems, charts, graphs, etc.

[No coincidences]

"Legwork" is simply a means to quantify value or lack thereof. "Legwork" will never be reflected in a won lost record, it is only a piece of that puzzle.

If "Legwork" in its pure form gives as many reasons to walk away from a bet as no value was recognized; no win or loss can be realized. It is just as often the events you do not play that make or break you.

Value is everything. Wins and losses are merely a bi-product of that process.

Those that can quantify value in three minutes are forgetting the myriads of work done previously to lead to that perception. This is a job; years of experience and oversite are retained and utilized at any given moment. The thought process in those three minutes was likely developed over quite a period of time.

There is no way to play this cheap. Coin flippers and dart chuckers never win. They did not take the time or possess the requisite knowledge to make an assessment of value.

you know better than that. Pick a Su winner youre going to cover the vast majority of the time and with enough ML dog winners that will easily overcome the fav that win SU but do not cover for you.

That being said putting a lot of time into 'handicapping' is a waste of effort. The only 'legwork' you need to do is looking for the best vig and odds on the team you like.

I used to put hours into that shit a week. Total waste of time, now I put less than an hour a week in and do just as well as I used to. But then again I am not a big football bettor nor am I betting to make a living anymore just 'for fun'. But I dont think that matters either.

Seriously just look at the match up the week before WITHOUT SPREADS and circle teams you think will win, if you cant pick a winner in a particular game pass on it, you will have more than enough circles to have plenty of action.

Then you just take those circles and bet them, if you circled a fav lay the points, unless it is 7.5 or more then you have to evaluate it a little more. If you circled a dog find the best ML you can and bet it, dont dick around with points.

The angel and devil on our shoulders in a nutshell.

[pavyracer]

I walk around the neighborhood for 30 minutes before I place a bet. I just need to gather my thoughts without being in front of a computer screen so I can go back and hit the button to submit the bet.

[t-wizzle]

I agree, but therein lies the question.

Can you imagine correctly spending the time capping a Northwestern cover, a Saints cover, or a Michigan cover, only to have the rug pulled out from under you all three times? I had the NW game nailed and lost a pretty decent amount of money. I didn't have the angle I thought I did to go big on the NE or the PSU games -- just got bailed out by flukeish situations. It's all part of the "game," true, but why put so much blood and sweat into something that, in the end, winds up being a coin flip either way more often than it should?

That's all part of the game.

The part you don't seem to get is that nothing is ever supposed to happen.