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NFL Prop: Defensive/Special Teams Score
Good plus money prop if you can find the right mix of good return game, crappy QB play and play making defense. Going to list some here and see how it does. Like this prop vs. overspending on the juice for other props. Good Luck. Godspeed. Poontang.
10.13.13: CHIEFS-RAIDERS +160
Damn it. Texans might need to be auto play even with Yates on these. Doh!
10.13.13: Broncos-Jaguars +140
Jags QBs have thrown four pick 6s this season, Broncos are in the top five for INTs on defense. Add in Holliday on returns for Denver.
Will keep tracking this the rest of the year. Gotta pick your spots, but I think this can easily be profitable.
Profit: +3.00
You still need to win these props around 40 % of the time.
I think thats very hard to do ; without calculating anything it feels like you are better off focussing on unders( no tds)
It's like betting draws in soccer. People are scared to do it too often, but you can profit and you don't have to hit a high percentage like you said ... 40% will do it. The key obviously is to make smart plays and not just make a play and hope you get lucky. Obviously I did get lucky with the Jags-Broncos game because I would have said if the score happened, my money would have been on the Denver D turning Jacksonville over.
Adding in some college plays too where I think it might be even better than NFL ...
10.19.13: KANSAS-OKLAHOMA +160
Damn this game. Two blocked punts. One ended as a safety. The other got spotted at the six yard line after the KU player scooped it off the OU punter's foot for the block. OU just blocked an XP and ran it back for two points. All that, but no TDs out of that.
10.19.13: Notre Dame-USC +160
Little disappointed not hitting the KU-OU one with all the special teams plays that happened. SC-ND never had but one punt return that had a little excitement. That's the way it goes. Props not posted for NFL yet, but without a doubt I will use KC-HOU for one play. Cannot see a reason not to with KC's D against an inexperienced QB on a team that has made a habit of throwing Pick 6s. Also still think Smith is due for some poor decisions soon. 2nd play I think is between BUF-MIA & CHI-WAS.
Profit: +1.00
10.20.13: Redskins-Bears +150
Damn BUF-MIA cashed on the first series. Tannehill. Hopefully I don't regret that and WAS-CHI comes through.
3 of them already. LOL
Too bad the prop doesn't pay for every TD that falls into this category for a game. Hester punt return TD.
10.20.13: Chiefs-Texans +160
Profit: +1.50
So far the NFL games have been much better with 3/4 hitting. Missed both college tries last weekend. Got another for tonight.
10.22.13: ARKANSAS STATE-LAFAYETTE +160
Watch the return game for Arkansas State, especially McKissic on kickoffs where Lafayette has given up three touchdowns already this season. Arkansas State has run back a pair & McKissic has a lot of big returns to his credit. Lafayette has run back one kickoff for a TD. Lafayette is also opportunistic on defense with eight picks to rank 2nd in the Sun Belt and they have run back two for TDs. Arkansas State also has problems protecting their QB, giving up a league leading 18 sacks - so fumbles could be seen as well.
10.27.13: Chiefs-Browns +160
10.27.13: Broncos-Redskins +140
Punt return game for Denver could yield something for this if their D can make some stops. Skins have given up punt returns in successive games for TDs.
In the black again for the NFL. Split and profit. If I can actually hit some NCAA ones .. I'd be doing real well. Probably try NCAA for another couple weeks and drop it if they don't start hitting. Thing that sucks about those is I have to wait and see what my book will pick for games with props. Probably start focusing on major TV games which will be more likely to be included.
Really wish they paid this prop more than once per game LoL.
10.28.13: Rams-Seahawks +160
Two opportunistic defenses at work tonight. Seahawks are tied for 4th most INTs in the league and figure to have a shot at adding to the total tonight against Clemens. They have returned one for a TD. They also rank near the top of the league in forced fumbles along with STL. STL has two INT returns for scores & one fumble. Ball protection for Russell Wilson could be a factor. He leads the league with eight fumbles, five of which have been lost. The shaky O-line play is partially to blame, so STL may have some opportunities tonight to force turnovers as well. Don't expect much from the return games although Seattle with Kearse & Tate & STL with Austin do have some explosive qualities, but both teams' coverage units are pretty solid.
Played this prop in the Washington/Chicago game last week, easy winner. Thought about it last night, decided against it and Minnesota proceeds to run the opening kickoff back for a td. Betting small and being picky can add a few bucks to the roll. Good luck tonight EP!
how about first score being anything other than rush-pass td,fg,safety, +$ 1500 my min bet is $10 so would cost $20 to cover both sides. to rich for me lol I woulda tried $2 to win $1500. pick 6, block kick, kick return. last night first td was opening kickoff returned 109 ydsOriginally Posted by EaglesPhan36
last night took you about 12 secs to win your prop bet. longest td over. bet it takes longer to win tonight.
Profit: -0.10
10.31.13: Houston-S.Florida +160
Both defenses have been opportunistic with multiple defensive scores. Houston leads the conference with 16 INTs, two return for TDs and has forced 27 turnovers this season. USF has seven picks, one for a TD and has also returned two fumbles for scores. Houston also ranks the best kickoff return club in the AAC and has one for a TD.
I think I am just going to go back and make this an NFL only thread. NCAAF for whatever reason, my reads are not good. Tonight I felt really confident with the set-up and the game was fairly clean. NFL has been no worse than a 50-50 split on Sundays so far, so I'm gonna aim to keep that going and drop the NCAA tries.
11.7.13
Vikings-Redskins +160
No brainer to try tonight.
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