[jmstar81]

Hedge question


I have a 6 team parlay - 5 games already clear, the parlay pays $3,300.


Last leg is a tennis match, where I have the favorite @ -300.


So, I decided to hedge a bit.


My original wager was $100 / 6 leg parlay that pays $3,209.
I then stacked (6) $100 individual wagers on the tennis dog.


See tickets here:


I'm already on a run this week winning nearly $7k, so I wanted to end this week on a high note and get the guaranteed pay out for this last parlay.

Thoughts on the move?

[BennyBigNuts]

Hedging is a pussy move 95% of the time IMO.
But you are getting +363 currently on it that's a way better price on the dog compared to the -300 you layed on the favorite so that's a plus.

Must have been a major chalk parlay if 700 only pays 3300. Hedging is a waste in this situation if that's the original investment. It's basically a 3 teamer you're hedging. Gonna get buried in the long run hedging chalk parlays.

[kmarinouofm]

Hedging is a pussy move 95% of the time IMO.
But you are getting +363 currently on it that's a way better price on the dog compared to the -300 you layed on the favorite so that's a plus.

Must have been a major chalk parlay if 700 only pays 3300. Hedging is a waste in this situation if that's the original investment. It's basically a 3 teamer you're hedging. Gonna get buried in the long run hedging chalk parlays.

he made the right move bro.. he only had a dollar on the parlay .. good job man.. take the bookie for 10k this week

[BennyBigNuts]

he made the right move bro.. he only had a dollar on the parlay .. good job man.. take the bookie for 10k this week

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh my mistake. Read it wrong. Why would he bury 700 on the hedge then?
That's insane to me.
Good job either way, made a profit so you can't argue with it.

[jmstar81]

so the thought process was...

I do nothing and I have two outcomes. $0 or $3,300.
Hedge and now I have two outcomes. $2,333 or $2,700 ($3,300 less $600 hedge).

Like the show "Deal or no deal" - you're down to 2 cases. The bank calls and offers you $2,500. Either take the $2,500 or go for $0 or $3,300. In this case I choose the banker deal.

[BennyBigNuts]

so the thought process was...

I do nothing and I have two outcomes. $0 or $3,300.
Hedge and now I have two outcomes. $2,333 or $2,700 ($3,300 less $600 hedge).

Like the show "Deal or no deal" - you're down to 2 cases. The bank calls and offers you $2,500. Either take the $2,500 or go for $0 or $3,300. In this case I choose the banker deal.

Yeah you can look at it that way for ONE instance.
But you have zero chance to be a profiting player hedging.
Hedging is for ppl who accept being losers IMO.
It's a horrible investment/play in the end. The books thank you for it though.
I'd book that action all day.

[El Nino]

Hedge Calculator

http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php