1. #1
    C-Gold
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    C-Gold week 2 plays

    I had a crappy start to the year last week, looking to bounce back. A lot of my logic is in my Week 2 early leans thread.

    San Diego +7.5
    Dallas +3
    San Fran +3 and I will probably also add money line
    Carolina -3
    Denver/Giants over 55
    Denver -4.5
    Green Bay/Baltimore Teaser



    San Diego Charters +7.5 - The Eagles had an impressive start to the Chip Kelly Era last week. You are going to have the Chip Kelly bandwagon, MNF watchers, and people looking to fade west coast teams playing east coast at 1 PM. All of that excitement for the Eagles heavily shaded this line.

    I am thinking the Eagles might win 28-24. The game could be higher scoring but for some reason that score pops in my head.

    One reason I really like San Diego is that the Eagles are a MNF DOG that won outright. Teams in that scenario that are favored the following week have an abysmal ATS record. SD is sort of an unknown team, a 7-9 West Coast last year. San Diego covers this spread 4 out of 5 times and I think they have a shot to win this game. Vick and the eagles are turnover prone - He had a pick 6 last week and the team led the NFC in turnovers last year. River had a bad year last year but he had an injured RB and a weak line and turned the ball over too much. The price for the Chargers is right and I love that you get the hook on 7.

    Dallas +3.
    I picked Dallas to make the playoffs this year, for that to happen they have to win these kinds of games.
    Jason Garret was 2-0 vs Andy Reid last year.
    Dallas had a tough road schedule last year and was still good on the road, they will need that in KC.
    Dallas was giving up big plays and turnovers last week, Alex Smith is a much different game manager QB than Eli.
    I think Dallas wins outright, giving me the +3 safety is icing on the cake.

    San Fran +3
    I picked SF to have the #1 record in the NFC, for that to happen they have to win games like this.
    Kaepernick looks much much better than the Russell Wilson game manager at this point.
    49ers offensive line is much better.
    Seattle's front 7 was unimpressive vs Carolina's O-line last week
    Seattle's defense has injuries
    Both defenses are good but it's a lot harder to stop Kaep than RW.
    Pete Carrol is good at spotting talent, but Harbaugh is a much better in game coach.

    Playing in a loud Sea stadium is hard, but I think SF will be up to the task and win outright and prove they are the team to beat.

    Carolina -3
    I like the matchup.
    Carolina's defense in particular the front 7 looked good - you want to stop Buffalo's run and big offensive line.
    Carolina has good pass rush to keep heat on EJ, I am not fearful of Buffalo's pass attack.
    Cam Newton is experienced and way better than EJ at this point.
    Buffalo has a good D-Line, but Carolina has a good O-Line that outplayed Seattle last week.
    I liked what I saw from Carolina last week. They should have beat Seattle except Deangelo Williams fumbled at the 6 yard line with 5 min left in the game.
    I think Carolina wins this game, better QB, and they have a favorable match ups.

    Denver -4.5
    Neither team should get too much pressure on the other team's QB. There should be lots of passing yards, and scoring. I don't care if the total is 55, one team should get 30+-40 and the other team should get at least high 20's. If the final was 30-27 then I'd say that I was a little surprised there wasn't more scoring.

    I picked Denver to win the super bowl. Peyton should have his way with the Giants secondary. Giants probably lose by 6 or 7 or more.

    GB/Balt teaser
    Green Bay played well for a losing team last week, they win at home vs RG3 who didn't play well last week. Baltimore is not losing at home to Cleveland. They got Peyton Manning'ed last week but Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning. Both teams win and I am confident of it.


    Leans I am not taking.
    I didn't take Jets +12
    I am not taking TB +3.5 Looks like a sucker bet but I'll pass on betting on Freeman over Brees.
    I am not taking Rams +5.5. Falcons still probably win, I wish I got it earlier in the week at 7. I want to watch this game.
    I am not taking Bears -6.5. Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFC but the Trestman offense looked too complicated for Cutler last week and they didn't stretch the field at all. I do think the Bears win and probably cover but I will let them work that offense out a little bit. I'd love to fade Christian Ponder but I don't have to bet on every game.


    GL

  2. #2
    NYSportsGuy210
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    You passed on all the good bets. JMO.

    Might get ugly for you today.

  3. #3
    Vinnie Paz
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    You say rhe eagles turn the ball over too much (last year) but then say the same thing about rivers. You can't blame that pick 6 on Vick, and besides, rivers had 1 too with the game on the line!

  4. #4
    Vinnie Paz
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    Also, in my opinion, its irrelevant Garrett was 2-0 last yr vs Reid. Completely different scenario this time around.

  5. #5
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    You say rhe eagles turn the ball over too much (last year) but then say the same thing about rivers. You can't blame that pick 6 on Vick, and besides, rivers had 1 too with the game on the line!
    McCoy worked with Rivers on taking the safer plays all off season. Rivers didn't really have a big turnover problem in his career, it was just lats year in a crappy situation. The Chargers were still 1 game under .500.

    Vick has always fumbled. He had a pick 6 in week 1 and it was his fault. He's short, has small hands and has always been turning the ball over. Even last week when the Eagles looked good.

    Dogs that win outright that are favored by 7.5 the next week don't cover spreads.

  6. #6
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    You passed on all the good bets. JMO.

    Might get ugly for you today.
    Crappy weather for Chicago. That favors the Vikings and running and the under.

    I still think Rams probably cover but I can't bet everything.

    Saints aren't as good on the road, they had a record worst defense last year and the hamster should get 100+. Of course they should win, but it looks like a sucker bet.

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    Tough card

    Whatever you do its going to be close to even whether on plus or minus side

    I do not see a big day either way

  8. #8
    C-Gold
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    Crappy weather in Green bay.

    I am a little bit worried of an upset alert with Washington. Washington running the ball with that zone and Alfred Morris get a boost with that crappy weather.

    Aaron Rodgers 4-12 in games when he is trailing in the 4th quarter.

    Washington should now be a live dog in this game. Green Bay still probably wins but I don't like that teaser as much anymore.

  9. #9
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Tough card

    Whatever you do its going to be close to even whether on plus or minus side

    I do not see a big day either way
    Hope I can eek out 5-2.

  10. #10
    C-Gold
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    I am going to add Tampa +3.5

    This is a sucker bet, Saints probably win by 3 exactly. The Hamster is good enough to get 100 yards against last year's worst defense in NFL history. Tampa now has Revis in the secondary. Saints offense didn't look that great last week, Steven Jackson lost the game at the end for Atlanta. Josh Freeman doesn't inspire confidence but maybe he responds with his back against the wall. His coach is probably going to run a conservative game plan for him to execute.

    4-0 so far in the early games but stuff always goes wrong, I hope to start out 3-1.

  11. #11
    C-Gold
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    ADD Tampa +3.5 to my plays.

  12. #12
    C-Gold
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    Dallas covered
    San Diego covers
    Teaser won

    Carolina robbed at the end of the game. Luke Kuechkley picks off EJ Manuel to end the game but they called it back with a bogus pass interference call. He was almost picked on the pass before that too!

    Pissed but 3-1 right now.

  13. #13
    C-Gold
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    Denver and Denver over hit.

    5-1 right now with Tampa pending.

  14. #14
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Tough card

    Whatever you do its going to be close to even whether on plus or minus side

    I do not see a big day either way
    You should have tailed me. You could have bought a new $1,000 rug for your head.

    You know I know NFL.

  15. #15
    jjgold
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    unreal

    what a fukkin day GOLD!!!!!

  16. #16
    opie1988
    I have a MAJOR fukkin clue..
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    Nice work, C-Gold

    Always nice to see a fellow conservative do well.

    SBR
    Poster of
    Year 2011


  17. #17
    C-Gold
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    Tampa just takes the lead over New Orleans!!!!!

    Give me another win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. #18
    C-Gold
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    If Tampa holds on I am 6-1 or 86%.

    and that counts getting jewed on the Carolina game after a game winning INT was called back.

  19. #19
    C-Gold
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    6-1 baby

    Now I need the 49ers to cover and I am 7-1!!!

  20. #20
    C-Gold
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    6-2 week. 49ers was a bad call, I still say I got screwed in the Bills game on the INT that was called back on the 2nd to last play of the game in front of the home crowd. Oh well, 6-2 is pretty damn good.

    I leaned the Steelers +7, but I see the line at 6.5 and I think this is a wait and see team. The Bengals had the Bears game in week 1 through 3.5 quarters and then blew up, thanks to poor coaching and mental errors. Marvin Lewis has been with the Bungles forever and has never won a playoff game. Maybe the cheap ownership is scared to fire his ass.

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