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If I know for sure I can beat the closer on lines, how hard should I go on betting?
Found a local who doesn't change his lines throughout the week, creating value on one side of the spread. There's tons of talk about beating the closing line on here, but I'm not an expert about it. Am I to believe that if I basically blindly bet each and every line that is off (like he has -1, when the market has -3.5) that I'll more than likely come out ahead?
I'm not exactly an expert but I'd use the sbr half point calculator to see what edge you have and then use kelly to see how much to bet.
Bluntly, yes. You just need to make sure you have enough advantage to cover the juice.Originally Posted by gamblingisfun
Hurry up because that guy is either wising up or going out of business.
He's a friend of a friend who said he wants to try being a bookie haha, I'm gonna take him for all he's got that I feel comfortable risking. My two HUGE advantage plays were stl +7.5 -110 and Mia +3.5 -110. Too bad I only put 20 bucks on each just to see if this guy is even gonna pay and is legit
LOL if you beat closers the first 2 weeks youre still getting buried.
NFL is easy pick a team and find the best line at the time you want to bet, if you win by a half point youre lucky, if you lose by a half point you got unlucky.
This idea that 'smart' people win all these games because they got the best line is one of the biggest jokes of all time. If theyre so damn good they would be picking the games where the lines dont matter at all, which is about 85% of them.
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Couldn't be more wrong.
As for OP, yeah if you get that huge of an edge where you are getting -1 and the market has -3.5, you should bet as much as you can afford. Over a large sample of plays it will be very very unlikely you are down.
why not arb with pinnacle with much larger stakes?
so you figured winning $40 would be a test enough of he is legit ?
so now that u got paid out $40.. you think he will not have a problem paying you 2k on a good weekend ?
I'm from us I can't have pinnacle, and I am only beating the closing line because my local that I just found doesn't move his lines, so I'm only betting into those that are btcl. So I'm just picking and betting his bad lines and taking advantage. So I will beat the real Vegas/offshore closing line 100% of the time
Problem though: a local who doesn't change their lines will get hammered eventually, and go bust.
What is his limit? $100? lol
That is exactly why I love bettingresource. They often release dog moneyline instead of the spread in football and basketball...both pro and college. I hate when services release plays such as +1.5 or +2.5 in football.
He's apparently being a third party bet taker, taking bets he likes, and sending others off to the main bookie who has been around for a while. So he takes on some risk booking people's bets he thinks are going to lose. He uses the main guy's lines though. My friend who I found him through says pretty much all his friends and him included bet parlays almost exclusively lol, and if the bookie is making profits like that, I hope he stays around for a while. I don't know what his limit is, but I'll bet what I can comfortably afford per game which is at most probably 250-300 a game. As long as I have that kind of edge it's not really a huge risk.
oppurtunities only dreamed about
What sort of juice is he using? If it's particularly high, you might not be covering it that much.
Arbing is waste of money if you're covering other side at Pinnacle.
There already was a discussion about that...But If you have balance of 2-3k and want it go up as fast as possible, there is no way you can do better by betting bad lines than arbing with your entire bankroll on a 4 or more points difference.
ive made a ton of money finding guys like these and heres my advice:
First off, dont be a pig. You will win in the longrun, so your goal is to stay at the tough as long as possible. Dont play EVERY single off market line, and occasionally throw in a dumb looking parlay now and then.
If you have a big losing week or a couple losing weeks in a row, negotiate a percentage back. This is something that a lot of people dont know about. Once he sees that youre betting a lot and you pay with no problem, ask for anything between 10-20% back on losses. You'll probably get it, and its a freeroll anyway so doesnt hurt to ask. Last year I had two books that I did a lot of arbing/midding between, and I dropped like 10k in a couple months to one guy and paid him no problem. I asked for a percent back and he gave me TWENTY percent back on losses every week.
Only arg/middle if his max bets are higher than your unit. For instance, say you normally bet 100 bucks a game and he takes 500 max. Say the market is at -1.5 and hes dealing 3. Youd want to bet +3 for 500 and -1.5 at the best price available to win 400. This way youre maxing out your EV on the bad number, and still can hit a huge middle. (This is also how you end up with a percentage back).
Also, realize that the long run is waaay longer than you think. You will have bad weeks and maybe even bad months. Take advantage of it like Ive said, and dont worry. Youll get him eventually.
Finally...make his life as easy as possible. Pay on time, don't make a big deal out of small things, basically just dont be a dick. Remember; you will crush him. Just stay as long as possible.
His juice is -110 lines
Should be easy street then, you basically can't lose as long as you don't bet too much. Just don't ever have too much with him at any one point in time.
Is that so?
Tell me what the ATS percentage is for teams that win a game SU and the line is 6 or less.
Then tell me how the ATS losses out of that many gaes are going to make a significant difference to ones bottom line.
I can track every line opener, closer, and move from around 2004 to the present in the NFL, not as thorough in other sports. But I can see when lines move and when they dont. What the so called 'market' is doing or trying to do. The amount of times that NOT picking a SU winner works (getting the best line on the dog and have them lose by not enough) is so small it is almost negligible.
As for your -1 and -3.5, when you see that shit its generally a teaser protect and the -1 has -130 or more vig attached to it, and the -3.5 is probably going to come in at +115 or so. So trying to decipher an advantage out of that is next to impossible. You can cit all the drop down menus and price switches you want, theyre all based on the same results I have cited.
Pick a winner and worry about the spreads and odds later.
You are an idiot.
Now, you see how books stay in business, lol.
Seriously. I thought 2p2 was bad... People here are not only wrong but they're aggressive about it too.
I always suspected you were a non factor. Running you rooster sucker at 2+2. Got quiet when I pm'ed you though, wanted to tear through some of your br. You are a penetrating bottom feeder, to dumb to crush sports, and I knew it from the start.
Thanks for running me off of 2+2, that site sucks as much rooster as you.
I know a local in Detroit who never moves his lines either. When you have a group of 100 going through him... who have never been up at any part of the year... why would you need to move a line? Guy claims he makes 60k a year. Easy money.
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