1. #1
    matthew919
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    Never seen a line like this before...

    And might never again. Total at Safeco field:

    HOU/SEA o9 -116

    Nutso.

  2. #2
    Russian Rocket
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    Never seen a line like this before...

    Points Awarded:

    sourtwist gave Russian Rocket 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  3. #3
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    And might never again. Total at Safeco field:

    HOU/SEA o9 -116

    Nutso.
    Those lines are normally built to reflect temps in the upper 50's with high humidity.

    It is 88 degress and sunny in Seattle today with the wind blowing out to right at 9 MPH. If you are familiar with that canopy when open the wind has to tunnel to flow. At 60 ft that wind is much stronger than measured.

    There are two pedestrian right handed pitchers with high home run to fly ball rates facing lineups that are loaded with lefthanded hitters.

    Unfortunately you are a day late with your query. That line opened at 8 yesterday afternoon but did not hold long.

  4. #4
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    Never seen a line like this before...


    That line is going to attract a lot of action.

  5. #5
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    That line is going to attract a lot of action.
    you bet!

  6. #6
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    Never seen a line like this before...


  7. #7
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    lucky American kids...in Russia we only had teddy bears

  8. #8
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Those lines are normally built to reflect temps in the upper 50's with high humidity.

    It is 88 degress and sunny in Seattle today with the wind blowing out to right at 9 MPH. If you are familiar with that canopy when open the wind has to tunnel to flow. At 60 ft that wind is much stronger than measured.

    There are two pedestrian right handed pitchers with high home run to fly ball rates facing lineups that are loaded with lefthanded hitters.

    Unfortunately you are a day late with your query. That line opened at 8 yesterday afternoon but did not hold long.
    1. High humidity actually increases run production.

    2. Where do you get your weather report? I have the wind today in the nonexistent range.

    3. Pitcher splits against LHP/RHP are statistically meaningless.

    4. Those starters are absolute hamburgers. But this line is stupid high.

  9. #9
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    1. High humidity actually increases run production.

    2. Where do you get your weather report? I have the wind today in the nonexistent range.


    3. Pitcher splits against LHP/RHP are statistically meaningless.

    4. Those starters are absolute hamburgers. But this line is stupid high.

    Warm humid air has some advantage to intial speed of flight. Cool humid air, commonly referred to as "the Maritime Effect" in parks such as Oakland, Seattle, San Fran et al is a killer to ball flight. Might as well hit one into a wall. Ask yourself why do they keep baseballs in a humidor in Colorado. To restrict their flight.

    Here is your weather with a one hour delay. Keep in mind that canopy is open ended and tunnels even light winds. Click on the ballpark for Seattle at the bottom.

    http://www.baseball-weather.com/

    I cannot help you if you think lefty righty splits are in anyway meaningless.

    The starters are as you represent them.

  10. #10
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post

    Those lines are normally built to reflect temps in the upper 50's with high humidity.

    It is 88 degress and sunny in Seattle today with the wind blowing out to right at 9 MPH. If you are familiar with that canopy when open the wind has to tunnel to flow. At 60 ft that wind is much stronger than measured.

    There are two pedestrian right handed pitchers with high home run to fly ball rates facing lineups that are loaded with lefthanded hitters.

    Unfortunately you are a day late with your query. That line opened at 8 yesterday afternoon but did not hold long.
    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post


    Warm humid air has some advantage to intial speed of flight. Cool humid air, commonly referred to as "the Maritime Effect" in parks such as Oakland, Seattle, San Fran et al is a killer to ball flight. Might as well hit one into a wall. Ask yourself why do they keep baseballs in a humidor in Colorado. To restrict their flight.

    Here is your weather with a one hour delay. Keep in mind that canopy is open ended and tunnels even light winds. Click on the ballpark for Seattle at the bottom.

    http://www.baseball-weather.com/

    I cannot help you if you think lefty righty splits are in anyway meaningless.

    The starters are as you represent them.


    One day I hope to understand baseball this well. Today is not that day.

  11. #11
    pavyracer
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    Yeah I have never seen an over 9 in baseball before. This is insane!

  12. #12
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Warm humid air has some advantage to intial speed of flight. Cool humid air, commonly referred to as "the Maritime Effect" in parks such as Oakland, Seattle, San Fran et al is a killer to ball flight. Might as well hit one into a wall. Ask yourself why do they keep baseballs in a humidor in Colorado. To restrict their flight.

    Here is your weather with a one hour delay. Keep in mind that canopy is open ended and tunnels even light winds. Click on the ballpark for Seattle at the bottom.

    http://www.baseball-weather.com/

    I cannot help you if you think lefty righty splits are in anyway meaningless.

    The starters are as you represent them.
    I check that site often, but my weather data is scraped directly, comes from a more accurate source. I've spent a good deal of time deriving park specific wind factors, but Safeco is not on my list. There's just no statistical evidence for it.

  13. #13
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Yeah I have never seen an over 9 in baseball before. This is insane!
    Lol. Run along, the adults are talking.
    Last edited by matthew919; 09-11-13 at 06:27 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    lakerboy gave matthew919 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  14. #14
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post


    One day I hope to understand baseball this well. Today is not that day.
    Feel free to ask anytime. Got a lot of guys here with some pretty acute knowledge. Nash, Coin, LT, Banker, Nino and many more. You ask a question and someone will give you their time I am sure.

  15. #15
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    I check that site often, but my weather data is scraped directly, comes from a more accurate source. I've spent a good deal of time deriving park specific wind factors, but Safeco is not on my list. There's just no statistical evidence for it.
    There are 5 nights a year when these conditions prevail in Safeco. Get them while you can. If you can get a feed check out the game. You will see the configuration of that canopy roof while retracted.

  16. #16
    matthew919
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    GL to you sir. But I am chalking this one up to operator error. For now, anyway. I will definitely be watching this game for the effects you're mentioning.

  17. #17
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    I check that site often, but my weather data is scraped directly, comes from a more accurate source. I've spent a good deal of time deriving park specific wind factors, but Safeco is not on my list. There's just no statistical evidence for it.

  18. #18
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Lot of guys scrape weather Kid. Most scrape advanced data, live weather ain't worth much, usually the whole damn world knows the day of. You gotta get the shit days before.

    got guys scraping the texas coastal forecast like mad to see if that invest turns up nasty on the weekend.

  19. #19
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Yeah I have never seen an over 9 in baseball before. This is insane!
    Clown. There has only been one other game this year with a posted total of 9 @ Safeco. On August 7 J.A. Happ and Hamburger Harang were posted at 9. It was a warm day with minimal wind. There were 3 home runs hit that day and the final was 9-7

    There were no games totaled at 9 in the entire 2012 season at Safeco.

    I think the OP had a pretty legitimate observation.

  20. #20
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    great game. i remember staying up all night, trying to fukk my neighbor with a coke-dikk. they don't make games like they used to...

  21. #21
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Lot of guys scrape weather Kid. Most scrape advanced data, live weather ain't worth much, usually the whole damn world knows the day of. You gotta get the shit days before.

    got guys scraping the texas coastal forecast like mad to see if that invest turns up nasty on the weekend.
    I like the way you roll. No mickey mouse operation here either. I go months ahead, sometimes years.

  22. #22
    pattymayo
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    So do we pound the over or what

  23. #23
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    So do we pound the over or what
    Well I already choke-slammed the under and then piledrived it back to next week. So good luck even finding that available anywhere.

    But in all seriousness, this is a perfect example of a situation where live betting is prescribed.

  24. #24
    thirtytwo
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    Pinny just moved to 9.5 +100/-110... nuts...

  25. #25
    billysink
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    fukkin pissed now I missed this until OP asked the question. One of the biggest freerolls of the season now.

  26. #26
    matthew919
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    Reminds me of 7/31- there was a run up in an LAA/TEX game that pushed the line up all the way from 9.5 to 10.5 before close. My model was screaming under at that point so I bet the other side. Final score: 1-2.

    Never could determine what caused such a drastic upswing in that one.

  27. #27
    billysink
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    Seattle team total took a pile too.

  28. #28
    matthew919
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    I'm beginning to think the reason for this was not the weather at all. Someone out there knew that Bobby LaFromboise would be getting the call if Maurer flamed out early. Well played.

  29. #29
    turtlejc
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    As long as seattle doesnt bring in Carter Capps you might be ok

    i already got my astros TT over so I hope the game finishes like this for ya

  30. #30
    matthew919
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    Thanks. Either way, I'm afraid I was on the wrong side of this one though. A little more subjective analysis was in order tonight. Congrats on hitting on the 'stros TT!

  31. #31
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    I'm beginning to think the reason for this was not the weather at all. Someone out there knew that Bobby LaFromboise would be getting the call if Maurer flamed out early. Well played.
    I think there are going to be a lot of unhappy over bettors here very shortly. Neither of these teams can hit very much. Were it not for some thread the needle base hits early there would not be much

  32. #32
    lemart5
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    Houston TT O4 was easy penetrating money.

  33. #33
    matthew919
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I think there are going to be a lot of unhappy over bettors here very shortly. Neither of these teams can hit very much. Were it not for some thread the needle base hits early there would not be much
    It's all up to Peacock, and whether he can last through 7 or more. Never overestmate the Astros bullpen.

  34. #34
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    It's all up to Peacock, and whether he can last through 7 or more. Never overestmate the Astros bullpen.
    No dog in the race, looking for an in game but bed time might be the best option for this one.

  35. #35
    turtlejc
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    closing time in the 6th inning

    could be a long one

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