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Don't drink the Chis Sale kool-ade tonight
If I am like most of you, I get the pitching form the night before the next days games and give the probables the once over.
Then I check the overnight opening lines, and spend 90 minutes to 2 hours breaking down all the games. I spend 5 to 10 minutes or so a game, do this for awhile, it becomes a habit and a science.
But I digress.
Who checked out the Minnesota Twins (home) v. Chicago White Sox (away) game yet?
Chris Sale goes for Chicago, bona fide ace, all star pitcher, twice.
Strikes out almost 10 per 9 innings pitched. Ridiculously low lifetime WH/IP ratio of 1.10. Lifetime ERA of 2.80
He's a stud, call a spade a spade, he's a beast.
Minnesota starts a lefty of their own.
His name is Andrew Albers. And most of the casual baseball bettors are muttering "WTF is an Andrew Albers?"
I will go into all sorts of details about Andrew Albers later in this thread.
So Johhny Q. Public, goes to his source (wherever he books his action) and this is what he's been looking at pretty much for the last sixteen hours.
Sat 8/17 921 Chicago White Sox C Sale - L -120 7:10PM 922 Minnesota Twins A Albers - L +110
And Johhny Q. Public begins to drool. Johnny knows about Chris Sale, all star this, ace that, Cy Young canditate 2012, yadda, yadda, yadda, and Johnny has been looking at -120 all morning and afternoon. The game is in Minny, and he might be thinking Minny is lucky to draw 20K, and Pale Hose fans go to some of those games, the Twin home field factor is minimal, and to a certain extent he's right, this is where I might agree with Lunch Box Johnny, that likes to watch his sports on weekends, bet a 50 or a hundy with his beer.
All I know is that Johhny only has to lay 60 to win 50 with a bonafide stud, against some cheeseburger Twin call up reject. Johnny might want to send in 120 to win 100, pennies from heaven he is thinking, he knows Chi-Sox ain't much of a squad, but he knows the Twins suck worse. Yeah, I'll call in 120 to win 100, I will name Sale, just in case he is late scratch he says to nobody in particular.
But is Andrew Albers really a cheeseburger?
Well, like I said before, he's a lefty, and he's a good one.
Albers had a rock solid season at AAA Twins (Rochester) before he got called up 1 1/2 weeks ago.
Very sound season at Rochester.
Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2013 27 Rochester IL AAA MIN 11 5 .688 2.86 22 22 0 3 1 0 132.1 124 46 42 14 32 0 116 0 1 0 533 1.179 8.4 1.0 2.2 7.9 3.63
WH/IP, solid, K to IP ratio, solid. ERA, solid. What is not solid about what he's done this year? Finished what he started 3 times with a CG SO to boot.
OK, I mentioned he got called up earlier this month.
This is what he's done so far.
Pay attention
REGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH AUGUST 16, 2013 YEAR TO DATE DATE OPPONENT RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit BF GSc Dec. Rel. ERA Aug 12 vs CLE W 3-0 9.0 2 0 0 0 0 2 9 18 102 29 85 W(2-0) - 0.00 Aug 6 @ KC W 7-0 8.1 4 0 0 0 1 2 17 9 109 29 76 W(1-0) - 0.00 Monthly Totals 17.1 6 0 0 0 1 4 26 27 211 58 -- 2-0 0 sv 0.00
Did you pay attention?
What is wrong with his first two major league starts?
Only 2 K's in each game while going the limit I am trying to figure out, he was a K strikeout pitcher his whole minor league career.
Another thing, he got the Indians out on 2/3rds fly balls, but he got KC's big boy line up out on 2/3rds ground balls.
Dunno, maybe I making too much of that detail.
He's 27 and just gettting to the big show, because that dopey Twin organazation keep promoting lesser talent in front of him, like that hamburger PJ Walters, or Deduno, this kid is two levels better than them.
So you are wondering, "what's the book on this lefty Nashy"
Well, he's a command / control pitcher. His heater on tops out at 85-86 MPH, 89 on the fast gun, but he's amazing at keeping hitters off balanced. That's his game, control pitcher to keep hitters off balanced.
Most advanced scouts call him 'very crafty'
He has, like I said, not a very fast fastball, but that is not his out pitch anyway.
He has a terrific 12 to 6 Uncle Chalie. (I like curveball pitchers myself)
Here, this is what Radcliffe said a little while ago.
“There’s not much typical about Mr. Albers,” said Mike Radcliff, the Twins’ vice president of player personnel.
Especially his results. Albers is a classic lefthanded junkballer, the kind of pitcher who frustrates batters because every windup looks identical, but every pitch does something a little different. “He’s a guy who gets outs with touch, feel, command, deception,” Radcliff said. “When he’s going good, he can actually throw an 85-mph fastball by people because he’s got them looking for something else.”
It’s almost a baseball cliché, the crafty, late-blooming lefty who racks up wins in the majors by outthinking hitters — Jimmy Key, Jamie Moyer, John Tudor, Terry Mulholland and Charlie Leibrandtare all 20th Century examples of the breed.
And while Radcliff isn’t ready to put Albers in that class, he admits to being impressed with Albers’ season for the Red Wings. Albers is 10-4 overall. “He’s been our most consistent starter, maybe at any level,” the executive said. “He’s a finesse guy, but with an aggressive style. Expands the zone, disrupts timing. He doesn’t have any signature thing about him, where you say, ‘Wow, that’s why he’s good.’ But he is.”
Albers, drafted by San Diego in 2008 after pitching for Kentucky — the alma mater of top Twins prospect Alex Meyer, plus minor leaguers Logan Darnell, Lance Ray and Taylor Rogers — needed Tommy John surgery (named for yet another lefty junkballer) on his elbow, and the Padres cut him loose. After a year of recovery and a year in Quebec, where he faced future Rochester teammate Chris Colabello, he was noticed on UK’s campus by Twins scout Earl Winn. The Twins were interested but were convinced only when Albers took a chance and drove to Fort Myers, where he pitched his way into a contract.
Now he’s a step away from the majors. “That’s a big step,” Radcliff said, “but he’s got our attention, for sure.”
Now, do I think the line should be Sale (Chicago -120)? .
No, should be 135 or so. But I have a feeling a ton of Sale backers get burnt tonight
If you ask me are you betting him tonight, yes, but just 1*
is he the next big thing? Is he this decaded Jimmy Key? Maybe?
Let's find out, but I can not ignore his first two starts in the bigs, his season at AAA this year, and I think the White Sox lineup doesn't have the patience for him, They don't have Rios anymore, Dunn is dead red, he'll hate this guy, White Sox are dead last in AL batting, and only hit .240 as a team versus lefties.
Under 7 runs for 1* is my play, Twins 1* +110 is also my play, for all the reasons I just mentioned, and I also believe Sale backers are going to get hurt in the wallet on this one at -120
I don't want a stomach ache tonight from Sale Kool-ade myself.
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Originally Posted by Big Bear
