1. #1
    bmdpicks11
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    Why I believe that Sports betting trends will make you.....Go Broke!

    With sports the way they are today how much credence can you really give stats or trends that go further than even 2 yrs. Every day I look at stats and every website has trends over the last 3, 5, and sometimes 10 yrs. How many players that are on your favorite team are still there after 10yrs, 5, or even now3yrs. Look at the team that just won the super bowl. This day and age with free agency you can't possibly be confident betting on trends over the last 3 yrs. Take the Lakers this last year at one point here in Vegas they were the Co favorite with the heat just bc they signed Dwight. I didn't fall for it bc I understand the concept of team chemistry. So when will the "So Called" handicappers catch up? Never bc they aren't true professional handicappers. Every dollar I have ever made is directly from winning a sports game or horse race. I am a true handicapper, this is my job and the only one I've ever had. Other than running a sportsbook on the strip in Vegas for experience on the other side, so to say. All I am saying is how can you actually bet comparing the celtics of this year to whoever they put on the floor next year. No TOP PLAYERS COMING BACK, WELL TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC LET ALONE THEY TRADED THEIR COACH. Times have changed and if you aren't a step ahead in this game you mine as well quit. It sounds harsh but as the great Laker fan Jack Nicholson said: "You can't handle the truth. "

  2. #2
    tatehill2000
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    this is true,, 10 years ago my head was ALLL up the AZZ of statfox,, a thous bucks for thier premium service for 6 months, and a couple grand of losses cured me of that "second coming" lol
    tater

  3. #3
    Sportsbetting123
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    The books invented stats and trends to make the public think they can win with them

  4. #4
    Smoke
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    Fade the trends

  5. #5
    Marigold HD
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Fade the trends
    Exactly. ...this is when I started losing. Fcuk those trends.

  6. #6
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
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    People who bet based off trends shouldn't be gambling

  7. #7
    paw
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    At the end of the day its a 50/50 gamble no matter what side you are on ! The key is to make sure your checks and balances are ahead of the curve. Like I said at the end of the day everyone slings right back to that 50% Curve.

  8. #8
    mynameismud
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    trends mean nothing seeing that each game is its own entity. its just like that "its due" theory...after red hits in roulette like 8 times in a row, everyone puts cash on black thinking that their odds of hitting black have increased.

  9. #9
    ChalkyDog
    Buy the ticket, take the ride.
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    Once one figures there is no magical holy grail of gambling, and to use the tools offered to them in this information age - such as trends, advanced metrics, etc - you are well ahead of the curve.

    Problem is, nothing by itself wins at a winning rate - and then that thing is brushed aside as "useless".

    It's just a tool, in a massive toolbox that every successful gambler uses.

    I've been betting trends exclusively this year in baseball, (albeit a lot of trends I am looking at are based in advanced metrics), and I am doing the best I have ever done with the sport. Hell, I had resigned baseball as simply a time to lay off, this year it has become a viable option - and mainly because of "trends".

  10. #10
    ItsMeMrMattE
    puttin 2 cents in for 3 out
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    Once one figures there is no magical holy grail of gambling, and to use the tools offered to them in this information age - such as trends, advanced metrics, etc - you are well ahead of the curve.

    Problem is, nothing by itself wins at a winning rate - and then that thing is brushed aside as "useless".

    It's just a tool, in a massive toolbox that every successful gambler uses.

    I've been betting trends exclusively this year in baseball, (albeit a lot of trends I am looking at are based in advanced metrics), and I am doing the best I have ever done with the sport. Hell, I had resigned baseball as simply a time to lay off, this year it has become a viable option - and mainly because of "trends".
    "just a tool in a massive toolbox"

    best advice on trends. they shouldnt be overlooked but also shouldnt be relied on.

  11. #11
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
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    So your first post as a professional gambler and a once lead of a sports book in Vegas is too tell a gambling forum that trends are unreliable?

    I agree that team lack of complacency is a thing of the past. Using stats are just as ludicrous as using trends solely for handicapping. A person who uses stats will find the contrarian bastard slap in him in the face and the problem with trends, they are not caught in time. Most often when a trend is pubilicized it has ran it's coarse. Would you feel differently about trends if you first observed that when Adam Wrainwright starts, the Cardinals are 13-0 since May 30, 2010 as a fav after a game where his had more strike outs than hits allowed. It's active tonight, yet that specific trend would have been nice to hit 13 times before it loses tonight?

    Handicapping is situational nothing more and nothing less. Some handicapper's are better than others at finding these situations and bottom line if you can hit 55% at the end of the day, you can call yourself a professional. Who cares about working at a sports book.
    Last edited by JMon; 07-04-13 at 05:14 PM.

  12. #12
    lakerboy
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    Nothing works

  13. #13
    Rich Boy
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    Forget trying to beat books, just use sharp numbers to lean on square numbers ie Pinny > Bet365 or Bodog, etc

    Books know everything you know plus a whole lot more, thats my motto.

    Or try beating them in small markets, then you have a chance.

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