[darkhat]

LMAO another math guy. or thinks/pretends hes a math guy who doesnt have a frigging clue.

Points/lines dont have any value, end of story. Other than what a book will charge for them. Only people that think that are guys who have been brainwashed into thinking they do.

I have been following sports and gambling for over 25 years I have tracked the numbers, moves, and all that bullshit and it doesnt mean a damn thing. The only times the points matter is when they actually matter, which isnt very often. There have been 147 individual games in the last 4500 or so where the line actually mattered. Do the math math guy and tell me what percentage that is.

These so called syndicates you mention that go in line with the 'billy walters' and other so called professional wise guy gamblers all have self fulfilling means to an end. Akin to how Ed at RAS does it in some sports now. They pick a couple games, then either release them or bet them and they have enough FOLLOWERS that put enough money into them to move them. So when the lines move (due only to the mass amount of money that was bet on them BECAUSE of THEIR say so) they claim 'see the line was off but we 'beat' it". Sometimes they win sometimes hey dont. But they always want to cite the amount of times and the degree by which they beat the closing number.

I call it the idiot factor. You have enough idiots following you that believe the shit you are selling and you can make any line move. Thats how Billy Walters (25 years ago) actually did make a little money gambling. He would leak out stuff he thought was off and let the fools move the lines then he would bet the other side and get all sorts of middles and crazy buy backs. Mostly in NCAA stuff but it was more than enough to make money with the kind of money he was moving back then. But he wasnt the only one doing it, he was just the only one dumb enough to talk about it.

I am not going to derail my own thread trying to educate you dumb asses who think they know what theyre doing based on the new age line of thinking.

I said from the start this was something I did that was just a system, totally numbers and nothing else. no factoring in anything but the stuff I use. It does work and it will show a profit. I dont give a shit what kind of definitions you want to put on it. the NFL by definition is 'short term' because there simply arent enough games in a season to make it anything else. There are 256 games(not counting play offs). If a guy can find 50 bets in that number of games and win 27 to 30 of them he is doing very well. Especially if half of them are for + odds.

That is the problem with NFL (sports) gamblers and so called 'sharp' guys. They look at 28-22 and think it is a failure or nothing special, but then out of the other side of their mouth they say hitting 55% 'long term' is impossible. But no one ever defines 'long term'. Nor do they care to because all these guys want to do is bad mouth and put down anyone that isnt a complete coin flipper. Vast majority of guys want others to lose because theyre losers themselves and thus they cant think anyone else can actually win doing it, plus they have to put others down to make themselves feel better or smarter.

This thing was up over 10 units the first 3 weeks, obviously it isnt going to keep that pace, nor should anyone expect it to. It did show a profit this week despite seemingly having a 'rough' day yesterday. But +120, +91, +91, -100, -100 is still a profit. And actually the odds on Phi and Mia were actually pretty close to even so a guy trying to 'spin' could say +120, +100, +100, -100, -100. No matter how you want to slice it it was profitable if you played the 5 games.

So even when you fools try to come in and bad mouth something all you do is show how ignorant you are. Even if it went 0-5 it would still have been up 5 units, which if I am not mistaken is still a profit. Like I said you take the good with the bad. In the end it is only about the money you have when you cash out. The money you make along the way isnt even all that important except it means youre not betting with your own money anymore.

Like I said I am done with this, if at the end of the season it is down mega units and you want to be critical feel free. But I imagine anytime the thing doesnt have astronomical returns you or one of your ilk will be in with your expected stupidity.

[GetsMoney]

Finally someone with some common sense! GL wantital4moi!

[darkhat]

Wanty buries every math guy that opens their mouth.

[ABEHONEST]

Sorry cowboy, but no way in hell.. ......!
The Books thrive on gamblers like this....

[Okiejoe]

You know just enough to be smart but still ignorant at the same time its cute lol.

[convick]

You know just enough to be smart but still ignorant at the same time its cute lol.

At least wantit knows the difference between "their" and "there". You cant even claim that...

[wantitall4moi]

At least wantit knows the difference between "their" and "there". You cant even claim that...

an ivy league degree should get you something....

[Romanov]

Hi Ivy League Mirage, here is some math to suck on.

If you went 28-22 on spreads, the likelihood that you would actually be a (52%) losing gambler would be:

.52(50) = e(x) = 26 wins

(28-26)/((50*.52*.48)^.5) = .566

This .566 is the # of standard deviations your mighty 28 win total is from the (losing gambler) mean. That is nothing and proves nothing about your system.

Let me explain further. This .566 indicates that a 52% LOSING gambler would go 28-22 or BETTER 29% of the time when in a series of 50 bets. Are you fxcking kidding me pal? Going 28-22 proves nothing you chump. Nearly 1/3 of NFL seasons a losing gambler be able to brag as you have. Get some perspective

[wantitall4moi]

Hi Ivy League Mirage, here is some math to suck on.

If you went 28-22 on spreads, the likelihood that you would actually be a (52%) losing gambler would be:

.52(50) = e(x) = 26 wins

(28-26)/((50*.52*.48)^.5) = .566

This .566 is the # of standard deviations your mighty 28 win total is from the (losing gambler) mean. That is nothing and proves nothing about your system.

Let me explain further. This .566 indicates that a 52% LOSING gambler would go 28-22 or BETTER 29% of the time when in a series of 50 bets. Are you fxcking kidding me pal? Going 28-22 proves nothing you chump. Nearly 1/3 of NFL seasons a losing gambler be able to brag as you have. Get some perspective

LMAO another math guy trying to explain their stupidity with more stupidity. So if a guy goes 280-220 over 10 years then you would still say they were a 52% capper 'long term'. Get a fukking clue. You guys think you know everything about math and then dont know how to use it properly. thats why math has no place in sports betting because for one 99% of you idiots dont know the right formulas let alone how to plug the numbers in correctly when you do.

You can use all the probability formulas you want to, it is still so much garbage.

wins and losses dont mean jack shit anyway. This system right now is 13-4, of those 13 wins you have a +120 dog, a +200 dog, a +180 (not even best number) dog, and a +160 dog (not best number there either). Then you have spread vigs with ranges from +105 to -108.

So factor in those dogs winning with MLs before you try and use your -110 formula guess work.

So no matter what sort of math you want to use I can show it doesnt mean shit because youre not using math correctly. Because it is all based on theory. a -110 line isnt the same as a 52.3% chance. Even if you try and factor in a 'no vig' line it is still tainted because the lines arent predictions their put in place to get balanced action. So if a game is lined like tonights as say -450/380 that doesnt mean the 'no vig' line would be 415/415, or anything close to that. It what the books deem they will get action at. The fact it first opened at 360/314 shows that, as does the first click where it actually went to 335/295. Lines move due to action not due to probability. How many times do you fucktards have to hear that before it gets through your thick heads?

Tonights game Houston has been as low as -335, and as high as -480, thats a big difference, does it mean their chances have increased? Not hardly they have the same chance to win as they always have, the odds dont mean jack shit, in terms of win probability anyway. So like you and your formula and trying to figure 'probability' based on spread math is just as useless.

I suspect at seasons end this system will be up 20 units or more. with a 'record' of around 60-42 or so, with about a third of those 'wins' dogs on the ML. Which would make the 60 a lot more than 60 in terms of weighted value. If a guy plays 50 games and theyre all ML dogs and he is 25-25 is he a winner or a loser? If he played 100 games and was 45-55 and all ML dogs plays how about then?

You guys all get caught up in wins and losses and dont factor in odds or money. thats where you all fail. Unless its baseball where it slaps you in the face.

[Romanov]

LMAO another math guy trying to explain their stupidity with more stupidity. So if a guy goes 280-220 over 10 years then you would still say they were a 52% capper 'long term'.No I would not say that, I would say there is a 29% chance that he is actually a losing gambler. If you have that record then good for you, you PROBABLY are going to win continuing in the future but it isn't guaranteed. Get a fukking clue. You guys think you know everything about math and then dont know how to use it properly. thats why math has no place in sports betting because for one 99% of you idiots dont know the right formulas let alone how to plug the numbers in correctly when you do. Ad hominem, nice ivy league pal.

You can use all the probability formulas you want to, it is still so much garbage.

wins and losses dont mean jack shit anyway. This system right now is 13-4, of those 13 wins you have a +120 dog, a +200 dog, a +180 (not even best number) dog, and a +160 dog (not best number there either). Then you have spread vigs with ranges from +105 to -108.

So factor in those dogs winning with MLs before you try and use your -110 formula guess work. i purposefully used your 28-22 so I could use -110 (50%) propositions since you didn't say anything about the kind of plays the hypothetical 50 play NFL player made. If you would like me calculate for you, using your individual plays, just ask me. it is very difficult to know what your actual rate of return is in this thread because you are very vague, you simply say ML. so in the future, please put the lines you get into your plays if you want my respect and assistance. if not, keep doing it your way.

So no matter what sort of math you want to use I can show it doesnt mean shit because youre not using math correctly. Because it is all based on theory. a -110 line isnt the same as a 52.3% chance. A -110/-110 game is 50% on both sides theoretically. Of course, if all games were exactly 50%, it would be impossible to make money. Even if you try and factor in a 'no vig' line it is still tainted because the lines arent predictions their put in place to get balanced action. So if a game is lined like tonights as say -450/380 that doesnt mean the 'no vig' line would be 415/415, or anything close to that. It what the books deem they will get action at. The fact it first opened at 360/314 shows that, as does the first click where it actually went to 335/295. Lines move due to action not due to probability. The market is honing in on the true probability. The collective mind of every sharp in the world is much smarter than you, and a more accurate method of predicting the outcome of an event. How many times do you fucktards have to hear that before it gets through your thick heads? classy and intelligent

Tonights game Houston has been as low as -335, and as high as -480, thats a big difference, does it mean their chances have increased? Not hardly they have the same chance to win as they always have, the odds dont mean jack shit, in terms of win probability anyway. So like you and your formula and trying to figure 'probability' based on spread math is just as useless. It means that if the ML moved from -335 to -480, it is likely that the market underestimated the likelihood of a Houston win early in the week. The market corrected for this by raising the line (due to more action on Houston).

I suspect at seasons end this system will be up 20 units or more. with a 'record' of around 60-42 or so, with about a third of those 'wins' dogs on the ML. Which would make the 60 a lot more than 60 in terms of weighted value. If a guy plays 50 games and theyre all ML dogs and he is 25-25 is he a winner or a loser? If he played 100 games and was 45-55 and all ML dogs plays how about then? Of course if you get a higher payout, the break even % changes. Being an Ivy Leaguer, I would've thought this would be below you to bring up into our conversation. If you expect to make me look like a fool using this insult, you've revealed more about your intelligence than you know.

You guys all get caught up in wins and losses and dont factor in odds or money. thats where you all fail. Unless its baseball where it slaps you in the face.

My replies are in bold. I never root for people to lose money on this site but I really hope you have a few average weeks after this. Judging by your reaction to someone you don't know, you have a personality disorder. Get that checked out pal

[ebelisle22]

...ok so wheres the system

[ChiLLx]

wanty started a thread sharing his system with posters and people feel the need to insult despite it winning

Classic sbr

[darkhat]

wanty still buring people left and right.

[broadway6]

wanty started a thread sharing his system with posters and people feel the need to insult despite it winning

Classic sbr

no shit. hilarious how someone post a few winners then people flock to the thread to either 1. play the winners or 2. give the guy shit. Now people are wishing others to lose bets. Isn't this place great?

[Sam Odom]

good to see others win

SBRers should be more like Sammy

[wantitall4moi]

My replies are in bold. I never root for people to lose money on this site but I really hope you have a few average weeks after this. Judging by your reaction to someone you don't know, you have a personality disorder. Get that checked out pal

well maybe you should read the thread, the plays and the payouts before you come in and try to make a point.

That makes it even worse.

But since you use the word market I know youre a frigging idiot so no more need to comment on you as youre one of those guys that thinks price matters in terms of who might win or lose. A bunch of following clowns who talk a lot but dont win shit because by the time they figure out their 'market" which usually happens after someone with brains moves the line, it is too late for them to capitalize on it.

When you guys bet a line that hasnt moved a half dozen times then you can talk. I bet into Pinnacle over night number 20 times sometimes and the only money moving them was me. When you guys start doing that then you might have a chance to try and explain something to me you dont have the first frigging clue about.

I moved baseball overnights 15 cents sometimes, I guess that makes me a 'market' setter huh? And that the move 'was a correction'. You dont have a frigging clue. MY money moved it, nothing else. But keep trying to kid yourselves that some all knowing all seeing super genius is the guy setting the 'market'.

[wantitall4moi]

no shit. hilarious how someone post a few winners then people flock to the thread to either 1. play the winners or 2. give the guy shit. Now people are wishing others to lose bets. Isn't this place great?

exactly the reason why I stopped posting plays. I posted probably a thousand games at Covers and had a weighted record of over 60% (up over 100 units) but people still liked to do the same shit. Everyone has some explanation or angle as to why someone does something or why they can win on a 'short' term basis. Is a frigging joke.

I made it clear from the start I wasnt going to defend the system, play it or not, I was doing it for general knowledge more than anything else. It started off hot and drew attention, then it didnt have a 90% week and people start losing their minds. Totally hilarious. It made money and people still have to find a way to discount it.

Truth is I lost money yesterday because I am not betting all the leans, plus i over bet Cle ML when it moved. But thats what you do. I was up a lot over the first couple weeks and gave a little more than I won on the Rams Thursday night back. So I am basically where I was a week ago minus some vig. Bonus to me because I dont bet the NFL that much.

[Romanov]

My Apologies Ozymandias. Continue on

[Okiejoe]

Want, what do you do for a living?

[wantitall4moi]

Want, what do you do for a living?

Nothing. I sit around and play video games and ride my bicycle and run. I occasionally go out and work on the avocado and citrus trees. I made enough money gambling that I dont have to work. I did help a guy from church today wash the roof of his mobile home though, if that counts.

I got married in 08 and my wife is religious and she told me I had to quit. I did for about 3 years, but we came to an understanding. I told her I was going to fool around and if she wanted to leave it was up to her. She compromised. But it is more for fun than anything else. But I still make money at it so what the hell. I just dont rely on it to pay the bills.

But I suppose if I had to 'define' what I do I would say 'ex-con law school drop out independently wealthy ne'er do well'.

[broadway6]

exactly the reason why I stopped posting plays. I posted probably a thousand games at Covers and had a weighted record of over 60% (up over 100 units) but people still liked to do the same shit. Everyone has some explanation or angle as to why someone does something or why they can win on a 'short' term basis. Is a frigging joke.

I made it clear from the start I wasnt going to defend the system, play it or not, I was doing it for general knowledge more than anything else. It started off hot and drew attention, then it didnt have a 90% week and people start losing their minds. Totally hilarious. It made money and people still have to find a way to discount it.

Truth is I lost money yesterday because I am not betting all the leans, plus i over bet Cle ML when it moved. But thats what you do. I was up a lot over the first couple weeks and gave a little more than I won on the Rams Thursday night back. So I am basically where I was a week ago minus some vig. Bonus to me because I dont bet the NFL that much.

\\\

nothing is better than picking winners and letting people hate....

[wantitall4moi]

My Apologies Ozymandias. Continue on

hey I dont take shit personally I just read what people write and respond. generally when guys start throwing math out especially with a condescending tone I take umbrage to it and go off on a diatribe. especially when theyre using faulty 'data'.

I never claimed this system to be anything than what it is, a simple numbers run that gives out some numbers and parameters and from there will give a side to a game. Thats it. The fact that it started off on fire was a negative because then it got attention and people started thinking it was something more than it is.

It will be profitable in the end because it takes all the bullshit out of the equation and if followed will make people money, but you have to follow it blindly, something most if not all players will not or can not do. even I dont follow it completely myself, thats why I lost money yesterday.

But Like I said it is more for 'educational' purposes than anything else.

[Okiejoe]

Nothing. I sit around and play video games and ride my bicycle and run. I occasionally go out and work on the avocado and citrus trees. I made enough money gambling that I dont have to work. I did help a guy from church today wash the roof of his mobile home though, if that counts.

I got married in 08 and my wife is religious and she told me I had to quit. I did for about 3 years, but we came to an understanding. I told her I was going to fool around and if she wanted to leave it was up to her. She compromised. But it is more for fun than anything else. But I still make money at it so what the hell. I just dont rely on it to pay the bills.

But I suppose if I had to 'define' what I do I would say 'ex-con law school drop out independently wealthy ne'er do well'.

And the lie keeps growing.....

[Okiejoe]

You have a "system" that beats all probability and statistics, you sir deserve a nobel prize. What your saying is so assine its incredible. You quit gambling because you were to good and the beat the system and now you use your powers to help those on SBR. You are the hero SBR needs.

[darkhat]

wanty is A game gambler... don't question kids.

[Saintsfan1977]

I have seen math guys beat the NFL and I have also seen guys use very little stats at all and continually beat it. Not everyone is a math guru but from what I have seen nobody needs to be. I dont understand why people bash posters that make a thread unless its someone looking for attention saying they will never post again if.... blah,blah,blah. I could start a thread posting picks and get bashed because Im losing. Its retarded. There are a few posters here I look at and a few on another forum, some of them dont use stats or math to make winning picks. They use situations or scenarios to provide the information they need to make a pick. GL wanty. Keep doing what you're doing.

[wantitall4moi]

Det plus best you can find
Cle ML, if it goes to 3 obviously take +3 as well, dont lay more than -110 vig on +3 tho.
K.C. plus best you can find
NYG Plus points, lean on ML

Den/SD borderline game, @ +3 den was a lean play, at a near pick SD is a stronger play. Calls for the home team to win but road dog to cover. Monday nighter so have to watch the line.

Weird week as alluded in above comment, generally system picks teams to win, but the numbers this week all fall into the lose but cover margins. Which this year has been higher than normal. Cle is the only one that says ML, ironically it is the winless team, but like I said it doesnt factor that in.

A couple other borderline games I will have to double check but those returns are fairly strong.

EDIT:

Yeah going to call

GB Plus whatever
Buff Plus whatever
Oak plus whatever

solid leans.

[Sam Odom]

Good Luck

[Robber]

Det plus best you can find
Cle ML, if it goes to 3 obviously take +3 as well, dont lay more than -110 vig on +3 tho.
K.C. plus best you can find
NYG Plus points, lean on ML

Den/SD borderline game, @ +3 den was a lean play, at a near pick SD is a stronger play. Calls for the home team to win but road dog to cover. Monday nighter so have to watch the line.

Weird week as alluded in above comment, generally system picks teams to win, but the numbers this week all fall into the lose but cover margins. Which this year has been higher than normal. Cle is the only one that says ML, ironically it is the winless team, but like I said it doesnt factor that in.

A couple other borderline games I will have to double check but those returns are fairly strong.

EDIT:

Yeah going to call

GB Plus whatever
Buff Plus whatever
Oak plus whatever

solid leans.

Worst you can find

[zacharyj53]

Nice work so far.

[broadway6]

good luck wanti

[wantitall4moi]

good luck wanti

week 6 always a good week for dogs, what bugs me is this is the week you see a lot of home favs -6/6.5 to sucker guys into playing teasers. The fact that the system is picking faves to win but not cover bugs me. Eveyr play this week is on a dog, but only one is picking that team SU, and like I said that is winless Cleveland.

Other than SD of course, but they might end up a dog (on the ML side anyway) before it is over.

[brumbies]

Nothing. I sit around and play video games and ride my bicycle and run.

cool what video games do you play?

[JR007]

Good luck wanti, don't let the ass-clowns rile you up.I've..been gambling for close to 40 years now, you know your stuff, morons do not have a clue....it's..all about price, if these clowns spent half the time and effort I do watching the screens......they might get it...it's all there, just have too find it

[wantitall4moi]

cool what video games do you play?

playing GW 2 now, Rift expansion comes out in a couple days though.