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Overreaction to just 1 game....we've seen this all before, with the Pacers this year, and even last year against Boston and Bulls. Heat always tend to slack one game or maybe two and then finish off the series.
I can't imagine Heat have any interest in returning to Boston...Take care of game 4, hopefully they get Bosh back Game 5 so they atleast get 1 game of practice with him in the rotations, before going to the finals.
send me that money instead of giving it away to the Books
Even if Boston wins tomorrow, Bosh will return on tuesday and Boston will get owned
best chance of JJ winning is if Bosh does come back Miami is a better team without him. Showing it now they got used to not having him around.
Boston should of won game 2 in Miami real easyOriginally Posted by Sport_Fish
This will be a battle to the end
this
/thread
If the refs call the foul at the end of game 2 when Rondo gets his skull whacked, C's probably win that one. Also, even if Bosh comes back for game 5, don't think he'll make any positive impact after not playing for so long and coming off an injury. People think he's just going to step in there for a hard playoff game and score 20 with 10 rebs or something are dreaming.
If Avery Bradley was healthy I would love that bet. The Celtics really miss him on defense. Good luck JJ !!
Boston didn't win game 2 for a reason. Rondo carried the team but Boston wears down by the 4Q and ESP. overtime, and those old legs can't keep up with Miami. In addition, Miami did get some help from role players like Chalmers and Haslem to close out game 2, something which was not present at all game 3.
Miami is the superior team and they will dictate the action. Credit Boston for some key adjustments which helped them win game 3, but Miami is not gonna let that happen for 3 more times against this team. And look what happened in the 4Q, when Miami's role players just made 1-2 buckets....it sparked a huge comeback. If that had only come a bit earlier from Miami's bench, Heat would've won the game.
I like your chances JJ..............
So you must be taking Boston Game 4 at a pickem then?
I like my position right now
I am in the game at least
you could have had Boston ML for +120 yesterday that way you would have 2200 to carry forward on a ML of your choice. But I guess getting +375 or more isnt good enough this next game. Or better choice would be to watch game 5 and bet games 6 and 7 (if necessary) accordingly. So Game 5 Boston wins and are up 3-1 you could then play Miami ML for some of it as a free roll. Then if Miami wins you then come back on Boston for what you have. If they win your at about +1200, if they lose youre out your original 1000 you just bet.
If Miami wins game 5 then you simply parlay the last two games with Boston, theyll be dogs at home again so if they win you have your 2200 you have now at the same +120 or so if they win then youre sitting on 4850, then you can go all in at around +400 for a game 7 in Miami or take youre initial 1K out and bet the remainder, or even take half out and bet 2K youd have a profit of nearly a grand in hand and if Boston wins you at a 9 grand overall profit.
Like I have said before series prices are a bad investment, whether they come in or not, the only way they are actually 'worth' it are when a teams gets swept.
The way games and series are rigged it is generally pretty easy to get into a spot where you can get much more than the odds a book is offering for the series by simply timing game bet parlays. This round has worked out 'perfectly' both series tied 2-2 and the odds on the favorites have been pushed higher and higher in the game by game situation.
Like I said before 'best' play was taking Boston ML last night and watching game 5 then making ML bets as the situation dictated. While a post like this garners all sorts of attention and will win you all sorts of accolades from the sheep who dont know any better, in terms of an actual gambling strategy and actually making money it was maybe the second worst option you could have made if you thought Boston could win the series.
you're always better off just betting individual games in the series
this kid always makes sense
This is absurd. What if he bets his $1,000 on Boston last night, and they lose. Then they come back and win 3 straight to win the series. Or even if his Boston bet wins last night, what if Boston wins game 5. Now he has only profited $1,200 and Boston is up 3-2 in the series.
You are making all these assumptions to justify why it was a bad investment, when any of your assumptions could go wrong.
I dont think the Celtics will win another game..yes i said that..i know they will get there clock cleaned at Miami...wait until the top 2 for Miami have good games and the old celtics don't open the game 18-6...can't feed off the home crowd...wait and see what happens. If bosh returns..it will be over in 6..
Half way there big win last night
Everyone expects the WORLD from Bosh when he returns... I don't think is the kind of player that can step in... and just play.. especially in the NBA Playoffs... I'm taking Boston + the points at game time. Let the public spike the spread.
GL JJ! Hope you win Boss!
Last edited by TheMoneyShot; 06-04-12 at 11:33 AM.
Good luck JJ
Delete this thread now
If they lose last night then he just starts over with 250 and he would still make more parlaying their ML in the next 3 games than he would with the original 1000 @ +540. If they lose he is out a total of 1250, for a degenerate like him the extra 250 is pocket change.
So tomorrow he has 250 on Bos @ +400 that gets his grand back right there so he is then even assuming they win. Then he has 1250 to bet on Boston in Game 6 at probably +110-120, If they win that game he has 2650-2750. So then he has them in game 7 where more than likely theyre going to be +425-430 as everyone loads up on Miami thinking there is NO WAY they lose the series. So he still has options. he takes out his (at this point) 1250 and bets 1450-1500 on them or he takes a small profit and puts the rest on it. So if he takes a grand (profit)out and then bets 500 on Bos A +425 he will have a total of 3125 profit. If Bos loses he also has a 1000 profit which he wont have if Bos loses the series. he could of course hedge his series bet but with -500 on Miami his options are a lot more limited in terms of how much risk versus reward he has.
So no matter how you want to spin it or twist it there are still better options.
"Worst case he bets the grand on game 4 ML Bos loses, he is out 1K. He then best 250 On Bos ML in Game 5, he loses 250. So he in essense risked 250 to get a free roll. But as it turned out he got a 'good' result in game 4 and that opened his options up greatly. But since you wated to play the what if game I just explained it for you.....
So there are still otpions even if he loses that one all in bet on the single game he can make more than
Miami vs San Antonio, Oakey outside shot, but a lil young
jj, you been smoking dat gold. Looks like a better pick now @ 2-2, but Boston will succumb, no matter how rotten the officiating gets. David Stern is a JB, just thought I'd add that in as truism.
Mr. Gold makes things happen. Movin and groovin baby!
nice call coach. Gonna ride it out or hedge.
Wantitall4moi, thanks for the detailed breakout in post #59. I am following you in that scenario and I agree with you. A Boston loss in game 4 would have been OK under your scenario because he could in essence parlay the last 3 games for a higher profit and more flexibility.
However you ignored the other scenario I mentioned. Your advice was to put $1,000 on game 4 ML, which won, so now his bankroll is $2,200. Then you advised that he takes game 5 off. What if Boston wins Game 5? Now his bankroll is $2,200, and Boston has a 3-2 lead going into Game 6 which is a Pick-Em, Boston is -110. What do you do now?
Only Miami has a chance against what's coming out of the West.
Tonight is a key
Man would be nice to hot this bet
common one time
Heat are scared to death right now
Pierce and Allen need a hot game
You got no chance pal. You're backing a team against LeBron James. How do you win? He's a monster. He's unreal. He is going to bury you.
BigDeem.....whats exactly has "King" James ever won?
Individual accolades don't mean sh!t until you win the big games. This year might be the year......we shall see.
I said that somewhere.
I think I said play a small play on Miami. Or if you think Bos can win out at home just bet Bos. Which is the more 'logical' play. Bos is going to be a dog in every game going forward, they have been upwards of +400-415 for this game. You could throw a goof bet on the ML at those odds, but I still say hold off completely. But in Game 6 Bos is going to be Upwards of +120 at somepoint maybe even more at a lot of people will be thinking Miami gets it to a 7 situation. So you might get 130 even. So playing Boston at home would be a good play regardless. So I would say with your 2200 play 800 or so on whatever the best odds you could get in Game 6 on Boston, Assuming they have won game 5. if they lose Game 5 then you bet it all on Boston game 6 and then figure out how much you want to bet in Game 7 at +450 or whatevwr they get to.
At this (that) point it basically becomes a series of individual bets, the goal is to make more than +540 overall which isnt going to be too difficult considering Bos is going to be well over +400 in 2 of the last 3 games, and should be +125 or more in game 6.
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