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Since MLB is suppose to be the easiest sport, how do we cap it? experts check in
i always hear everyone say mlb is the easiest sport to make a profit in, for me personally college football is , as i follow it the closest
i would really like to get in to mlb this year, but mlb runs in to my summers at the shore so i end up losing interest if im running cold
so since its so easy experts
what do i need to look at offensive and defensive to be successful and show a profit?
i dont mind doing research as i have time at work
so lets here it .. will give points
Go with your gut
My gut is a little bigger than last season so I should be hitting fukking winners this year
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Guys who say MLB is easy, are just the guys who got buried in NFL and Hoops.
No on this site people do the worst at MLB.
pitching matchups,hot streaks, gut
It is less difficult b/c of no point spreads, just SU winners.
That is it.
Everything else people tell is nonesense
fade the public and bet dogs
thats what i kind of figured
this is how sbr works
mid august-- baseballl blows
im gonna crush nfl and college football
then mid november
football sucks
im gonna crush nhl, and college basketball and nba
then
january basketball sucks im gonna crush nascar and mlb
mid may,,
im going on vacation i suck
mid august repeat
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Follow my plays and I take u to the promise land. #1 in sbr contest last year and many others.
In my experience, unders early in the season and overs late in the season are the way to go generally speaking.
First year I started betting over/unders almost exclusively and got buried in the 2nd half after having a great first half.
i think im gonna use bookie busters to find a way to be profitable
that helps with a profitable system doesnt help with picking the right games though
I think there are many important factors in baseball. If you watch a lot of baseball you will pick up on them. I feel there are many things in baseball that datasets and models miss. Look for things that are difficult to quantify. Use these factors in tandem with you model. Think positive, watch some games, and have fun.
fangraphs.com
learn xERA and strand rate.
Tail me
Chase Steam
dont bet the yankees phillies and red sox -200 every night
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learn what 'everyone' else is doing and beat them to it and then get on it late.
If you dont know what youre doing in baseball then the best thing you can do if you ever want to win at it is chart mythical plays. Well most guys do that anyway. But chart them dont just air bet them them or post them and forget about them.
Pick 3 or 4 teams at a number, watch that number as the overnights move and lines move during the next day then pick a time to play the other side or take a stand.
Keep track of how many times the line moved on the same side you played, if it isnt more than 70% of the time then stop worrying about betting on baseball. If it did move enough then see how many times BOTH sides would have been profitable, that has to be close to 75% of the time 80% is much better. But you cant have too many 5 cent or more straddles in moves. Meaning you bought -135, the line moved but got to only +130. So you have to look more for games that you think will move not necessarily what you 'like'.
Or you could flip a coin.
Fangraphs is an excellent place to get started. Pitching match ups are the single biggest factor, obviously there are other important factors that need to be looked into to.Originally Posted by zoo youk
Familiarize yourself with SIERA, Xfip, Tera, Babip, LOB % for the pitchers. I find that bullpens tend to run hot and cold as a group......check the performance of the BP over last 14 days, month etc. For team batting check the home/away splits, Wrc+, Woba. Read local articles for each team to get a pulse of the team "mojo", insight on nagging inuries etc. Shop for the best lines.....ther eis more but that's a start.
Good info here.... thanks scot gonna check out fan graph... I play at 5 dimes so ill check out the line movement stuff also... maybe track it
Also everytime I follow line movement I seem to lose anyway... I always hear how important it is yet still see people lose following strictly line movement... would rather use stats to make plays and what not... seems like dogs are a good way to to go also
numbers numbers numbers numbers.
Your "gut", lefty/righty stuff, and "hot streaks" will get you fukking buried.
AKA more Think Tank, less Players Talk.
Fade the following:
Lemart
JJGold
Warriorfan
BrahmahBull
At the end of the season, you should be driving a Cadillac along with 2 girls name Angie and Tiffany.
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tail someone good, if you are an amateur and look at fips and whips and righty lefty stuff and lineups you might still lose. like when tim lincecum has way better fielding independent pitching than they other guy, but the giants' aaron rowand leaves runners stranded at 3rd three times in a row or some shit.
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Pitching, Defense and never bet more than 1 or 2 games a day. I haven't had a losing season in 24 years. Believe it or not, I could care less.
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R u gonna have a thread wade? Same with you warrior? You make a thread this year
Show me one thread that I lost betting MLB and I will never post again
I'm not sure if this is supposed to be an insult or not? Honestly, I suck at NFL and don't bet hoops, but I can win in MLB.
thebayareabeast, isn't that your other ghost id? Anyways, you bet on teams with large mL chalk.
Tiffany has always been my favorite name, I can't pass up this opportunity.
On another note, I'll have my own thread, I bet a little different than most people, but all of that will be discussed later on. Hopefully it'll turn out the way i'm hoping.
Like I said, show me one thread I lost and Ill pull my dick out of your wifes mouth
What are some good baseball stat sites out there? I remember fangraphs, baseball prospectus.... what are some others?
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bipolar gave griz 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
