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  1. #1
    MJT1212
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    what are the chances a democrat doesn't win election?

    odds are -230 Dem

    tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected

  2. #2
    HenryHill
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  3. #3
    andywend
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJT1212 View Post
    odds are -230 Dem

    tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected
    Why would you go all in at -230 when you can buy all the Obama you want at -150? I'm assuming an "all in" bet means you're planning on betting a substantial amount so it doesn't make much sense to buy Obama at an inflated price for your entire bankroll.

    Clearly, you're not much of a gambler or a liberal democrat and quite possibly both.

    The time to buy Obama was when things weren't going so well for him and he was an underdog. If you're going to bet on him now, don't do so at a ridiculously inflated price like -230.

  4. #4
    MJT1212
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    Im at BetJewIslands, they only offer Dem or Republican...I'm about to switch over to 5Dimes in the next couple days though so I will probably wait and take your advice with Obama when I get there.

  5. #5
    ChalkyDog
    Buy the ticket, take the ride.
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    Never underestimate the voters in this country....

  6. #6
    McBa1n
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    Polish on a turd = a turd.
    Republicans aren't coming out to vote in most states like in the last go-around. Romney is the (R) candidate. He excites no one.
    Obama doesn't excite dems, either. I still think Obama wins easily. The (R) field is pathetic.

  7. #7
    CarpeDime
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    trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

    take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50

    even immediately after the repub convention it will be a good hedge with what it is now

    trust me i know politics i also said from day 1 on here romney was a lock for the repub nomination
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  8. #8
    19th Hole
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    Quote Originally Posted by andywend View Post
    Why would you go all in at -230 when you can buy all the Obama you want at -150? I'm assuming an "all in" bet means you're planning on betting a substantial amount so it doesn't make much sense to buy Obama at an inflated price for your entire bankroll.

    Clearly, you're not much of a gambler or a liberal democrat and quite possibly both.

    The time to buy Obama was when things weren't going so well for him and he was an underdog. If you're going to bet on him now, don't do so at a ridiculously inflated price like -230.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Mark this on your calendar....The new meds are working...
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    conservative side.
    Only mild name calling and only one dig at liberals.

  9. #9
    nick86
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    dems have this one on lock. Trust me

  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Dont care

    Country ruined so it does not matter who wins

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  11. #11
    nick86
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Dont care

    Country ruined so it does not matter who wins
    being a little over dramatic there jj boy

  12. #12
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by nick86 View Post
    dems have this one on lock. Trust me
    Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.

  13. #13
    nick86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.
    I doubt it. Obama is going to massacre romney in the debates.

  14. #14
    rkelly110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.
    Have to agree with this. 'bama's rating aren't the best. Continuing with Bush's policies
    doesn't bode well with the Dems. We made history with the 1st black pres. The novelty
    is over. Bush's second term was won by a squeaker. 'bama doesn't have a brother gov
    to carry him.

    The economy and gas prices will be the deciding factor.

  15. #15
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarpeDime View Post
    trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

    take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50
    This is what I'm thinking as well, buy the GOP now. Buy Obama right after GOP convention and before the first debate.

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  16. #16
    milwaukee mike
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    i think obama yo mama at -150 is a pretty decent deal. i don't think any repub other than ron paul (who won't get nom) has anything close to a 40% chance
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  17. #17
    KC
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    Gas prices the only thing scary about reelection

  18. #18
    durito
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    pinny is at -211/193 who has -150? (*this was -105/-105 a couple months ago)

  19. #19
    Hoopster007
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    Quote Originally Posted by nick86 View Post
    I doubt it. Obama is going to massacre romney in the debates.
    Why do you say that? Is Obama going to have a better teleprompter? There have been plenty of times when he is stumbling all over himself and struggles to read from it. And he needs a new speech writer. Usually you cannot say the same lies over and over and his SOTU speech is just repeated year after year with no results. So I guess that is why he doesn't mess that up.

    I agree that the republican candidates are not exciting but Obama has been so bad it will be a close race. The TV add for Repubs should be bits from past SOTU speeches and how he just keeps talking about the same stuff but hasn't done any of it. He just blames repubs. But he had control of congress when he was elected. Could have done whatever he wants. Sad part is, most americans are too dumb to notice any of this and they are swayed by the awful ads that are run during elections.

  20. #20
    willyback
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    Obama could lose if Romney is able to make the election close: ideally within five percentage points of Obama in the polls leading up to the election. If that were to occur, then either candidate could plausibly win the election, because the Republican establishment could effectively 'fix' and/or steal the election.

    Hear me out...

    19 states are in various stages of legislatively re-tooling their voting laws, in most cases making it substantially harder for likely democratic voters (such as students, women and minorities) to vote in the upcoming presidential election. That could drastically effect the number of votes cast for Obama.

    Voter enthusiasm is lukewarm at best. Voters are disillusioned with Obama's "change you can believe in" rhetoric. Even the "Obama Girl" is questioning whether she'll vote for him in 2012. His policies did not live up to the hype of his 2008 campaign. He's not going to enjoy the same historic voter turnout numbers that he had in 2008.

    The Supreme Court is decisively conservative. If battleground states such as Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania were to have razor thin election results, triggering recounts and a re-hatching of the 2000 presidential selection debacle, the elections will likely be decided by the Supreme Court (again). I can't imagine them ruling in favor of Obama.

    Romney has serious Super PAC money behind him. He could easily win the forthcoming political advertisement wars with Obama on TV. It could swing public opinion in his favor.

    Bottom line: Americans are just dumb enough to actually vote for a guy who made a career out of dismantling US workers and businesses.

    Obama is not a lock by any means.
    Last edited by willyback; 03-06-12 at 10:47 AM.

  21. #21
    slacker00
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    When it's down to Obama-Romney, I'd be mostly worried about the 3-1 bankroll Obama will have over Romney.

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  22. #22
    statnerds
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    i have been steadily buying positions on Reps. Currently you could also have field +600 vs Romney to win the nomination.

    you are fukkin nuts if you think obama wins easily. it will be a toss up, even with $1 billion dollars and the main stream media, barry might lose...imagine if it was a fair fight

    anyway, anyone relying on national polling data this late in the game is already fukked!!! believe it or not, results from individual states decide elections..perhaps you would be well served to check state-by-state data and re-evaluate that obama -230 position

    all in?

    haha

    fukkin hilarious

  23. #23
    dredmahawkus
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    I got the dems -130 like 8 months ago.....I heard on a left wing radio station that even if all the swing states vote republican, then the dems still have enough to win!

  24. #24
    ACoochy
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarpeDime View Post
    trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

    take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50

    even immediately after the repub convention it will be a good hedge with what it is now

    trust me i know politics i also said from day 1 on here romney was a lock for the repub nomination
    THIS....

    After Repubs finally nominate someone all it will take is for a poll or two to show reversing trends for the repubs and that -130 will be back in action....

    Thinkng anytime from mid-september dems will be good value at -140ish (me hopes)....

  25. #25
    statnerds
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    Quote Originally Posted by dredmahawkus View Post
    I got the dems -130 like 8 months ago.....I heard on a left wing radio station that even if all the swing states vote republican, then the dems still have enough to win!
    barry will win less than half the states, might only win 20, if Pa goes Rep. he will lose NC, Ohio and Fla, an 124 electoral swing from 2008.

    fukkin hilarious that people are still going to vote for this incompetent, racist, clueless bum. fukk Americans are stupid.

    you should be loading up on Reps now if they are +180 or better and the Arb some off when barry comes back down to -110.

  26. #26
    eleuropeano
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    Only thing that matters are the voters in Ohio and Florida.

    If Obama takes either Ohio or Florida he'll be president. Romney barely won Ohio against Santorum.

  27. #27
    InSaiyan
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    Obama is going to win mostly because the Repub. doesn't have a good candidate to challenge him. I hate Romney!

  28. #28
    broadway6
    on to the next one
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJT1212 View Post
    odds are -230 Dem

    tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected

    free money...$5 gas isn't enough for O to lose...

  29. #29
    RonPaul2008
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    40%
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  30. #30
    baskets
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    great, 4 more years of Charleston Heston action in the White House


  31. #31
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACoochy View Post
    THIS....

    After Repubs finally nominate someone all it will take is for a poll or two to show reversing trends for the repubs and that -130 will be back in action....

    Thinkng anytime from mid-september dems will be good value at -140ish (me hopes)....
    There is usually a drop following a party's convention... If I was going to bet republican this would be the time I would be pricing the election...

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  32. #32
    andywend
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    pinny is at -211/193 who has -150? (*this was -105/-105 a couple months ago)
    http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=652757


    [TD="class: price, align: right"]60.2[/TD]

    [TD="class: price"]60.3[/TD]

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