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Ryan Bader +200 UFC 144 2/25
Rampage coming in over weight and in my opinion, probably not motivated.
+200 is good a value underdog and I put 2 units on it. Bader should be able to grind out a decision.
My card:
Bader Risking 2 Units +200
Jake Shields Risking 3 Units -300
Frankie Edgar Risking 1.5 Units -130
1.5 Unit parlay Shields/Kongo/Pettis
Best of luck!
Last edited by BIGDAY; 02-24-12 at 11:13 PM.
What do you think of this parlay??
Henderson/okami/kongo
Kongo Okami Shields I like better.Originally Posted by Rod1010
I Actually think Edgar grinds out a decision win by winning rounds 4 and 5.
GL
Sure would be nice to know what rampages injury is
Agreed. I snagged +200 as soon as he tipped the scale. Will see how far it drops.
Okami, kid, kongo is a solid 3 teamer all 3 of these guys should win if kid gets beat by vaughn lee he should just retire or go fight in zst or something vaughn lee is about as easy a fight hes going to get in the ufc... Joe silva throwing kid a cookie imo
I see a lot of the favs cashing.
Parlays will be key. I like Shields to gameplan correctly to get himself back on track. Might be by a boring decision but thats how I see it.
Bol Teaser.
If bigday is on it.. I'm on it..
Fukk everybody
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lol you love your wrestlers
GL
C'mon, I am going against Henderson...
I hope Kongo realizes that he should have superior wrestling over Hunt. Also almost every one of Hunt's losses came from a non existent ground game.
Shields, yepHope he gameplans to take down Sexy at will and look for a sub.
If Bader doesn't get rocked early, he is very capable of winning Rd's 2 and 3 imo.
Best of luck.
Sure why not
Feb 24, 2012 11:25:39 PM Single #246450926
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
Both Must Fight For Action.
UFC 144 - Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan
(8003) Ryan "Darth" Bader +210 Feb 25/12@11:15p
Competitor: (8002) Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
Web US$ 300.00 US$ 630.00
I agree bader is the play
if u bet $100 on Edgar to win his first champ bout and let the winnings ride on his next 3 fights u would have $5200.. dam i wish i was an Edgar fan lol im gonna parlay shields and edgar 100 for 135
GL BD...sure is worrying...but plenty of guys have come in overweight before and still won
Completely agree. Was actualy leaning a Rampage+Kongo parlay earlier. Might through a tiny but on Rampage For KO of the night. Rampage's tdd is very good and definately has a more sound standup, but I actualy believe Bader is very hungry for a win. Leaning toward this fight going the dist and looking at Bader catching Rd's 2 and 3.
I wasn't going to play this fight strait, but Rampage didn't look himself at the weigh in. Just thought +200 was worth a stab.
I have made it a point to not tail anyone on here. Make my own decisions, but somethings telling me to tail ya tonight.
As always best of luck Bday
I was going to go reasonably big on Rampage KO of the Night, but him missing weight and losing some of his purse makes me wonder if he is even legible for a bonus now (like an unwritten rule!)? Obviously if there are no other TKO/KO's or if it's an absolutely brutal one they'll have to give it to him, but if somebody like Gomi, Hunt or whoever gets a TKO they might give it to them just because they think Rampage doesnt deserve it for coming in overweight? Maybe Im over-thinking it tho. Initially I was gonna play Not Rampage Inside at -175 to -190 range as a hedge to Rampage KO of the Night. May still do it, gonna have a look at past bonuses and see if anybdoy who was overweight still won an award. I know Rumble never has - he KO'd Yoshida after coming in overweight but they still gave Barry the KOTN even though he also got FOTN (against Hardonk)Completely agree. Was actualy leaning a Rampage+Kongo parlay earlier. Might through a tiny but on Rampage For KO of the night. Rampage's tdd is very good and definately has a more sound standup, but I actualy believe Bader is very hungry for a win. Leaning toward this fight going the dist and looking at Bader catching Rd's 2 and 3.
I wasn't going to play this fight strait, but Rampage didn't look himself at the weigh in. Just thought +200 was worth a stab.
I hear ya. I think there could be 2 to 3 Ko's tonight and completely agree that another fight would end up getting it. I'm also going to monitor rampage by KO/TKO also. Props will swing around all day today and I might just take a stab if that prop climbs.I was going to go reasonably big on Rampage KO of the Night, but him missing weight and losing some of his purse makes me wonder if he is even legible for a bonus now (like an unwritten rule!)? Obviously if there are no other TKO/KO's or if it's an absolutely brutal one they'll have to give it to him, but if somebody like Gomi, Hunt or whoever gets a TKO they might give it to them just because they think Rampage doesnt deserve it for coming in overweight? Maybe Im over-thinking it tho. Initially I was gonna play Not Rampage Inside at -175 to -190 range as a hedge to Rampage KO of the Night. May still do it, gonna have a look at past bonuses and see if anybdoy who was overweight still won an award. I know Rumble never has - he KO'd Yoshida after coming in overweight but they still gave Barry the KOTN even though he also got FOTN (against Hardonk)
yeah, loved how Kongo by decision went from like +230/250 to +480 over night and distance went from +200 to +360 or something! Got me a nice arb with not distance at -250 on Euro sites and hedged Kongo by decision with not distance as well. As long as Hunt doesnt win by decision im gooooood
A little more on my Shields wager;
Out of the heavy favorites, this is the fight I like the best. Look for shields to get this to the ground and fast. He should have an easy time controlling this fight on the ground. This is also sexy's first fight at 170, I think he loses a bit of that power and strength that he had at middleweight. I unfortunately think this will be a boring fight and see Shields win via decision. A submission in the 2nd or 3rd would not be out of the question.
Your Euro sites piss me off.
Options seem almost endless. I see no way how Hunt wins by dec. if that fight goes to a dec, it will be as I hoped and Kongo using a ground gameplan that simply is nowhere to be had from Hunt imo.
+200 is robbery. Rampage is hurt and rufused to come off the card plus not making weight as stared already.
im pretty certain this is an unwritten rule V. only two occassions come to mind where an overweight fighter had an argument to win the award, and both times they didnt win, and i believe both times it was mentioned that they were not eligible b/c of the missed weight. as you noted, anthony johnson was one of them, and the other was nick pace vs campuzano where he pulled off the pillory choke and definitely would have won SOTN had he not missed weight.I was going to go reasonably big on Rampage KO of the Night, but him missing weight and losing some of his purse makes me wonder if he is even legible for a bonus now (like an unwritten rule!)? Obviously if there are no other TKO/KO's or if it's an absolutely brutal one they'll have to give it to him, but if somebody like Gomi, Hunt or whoever gets a TKO they might give it to them just because they think Rampage doesnt deserve it for coming in overweight? Maybe Im over-thinking it tho. Initially I was gonna play Not Rampage Inside at -175 to -190 range as a hedge to Rampage KO of the Night. May still do it, gonna have a look at past bonuses and see if anybdoy who was overweight still won an award. I know Rumble never has - he KO'd Yoshida after coming in overweight but they still gave Barry the KOTN even though he also got FOTN (against Hardonk)
if i had to guess, i would guess that rampage doesnt get the bonus even if he's the only KO on the card.
christ, another wrestler?
I will continue to fade Bader until he proves me wrong that he is a turd
Moreover, would seem contradictory for a fighter to have a percentage of his purse docked and given to his opponent, then to go and get a 60k bonus for knocking out tht same opponent! Although obviously tenuous, I guess it could be argued that that weight advantage was the reason for the KO!
Last edited by Vaughany; 02-25-12 at 09:05 AM.
bingo.
but im curious why rampage KOTN has moved from +650 to +550 overnight? seems like throwing away to me.
Yeah just noticed that. It was +750 earlier when I looked. That +750 was the best line available (better than any Euro site) so might be why it got action. I agree tho, seems a bit risky and optimistic now!
You honestly think rampage is coming into this right unmotivated>? Thats crazy voodoo kid.
and i as wellchrist, another wrestler?
I will continue to fade Bader until he proves me wrong that he is a turd
Training through injury is not easy. Ive personally had to do this one season wrestling. Your mind is on your injury and not your goals. Missing weight by 5-6 lbs is all I need to know. Getting +200 for a wrestler that will most likely have a cardio advantage. People also might be forgetting that Bader does have power behind his punches as well. I see Bader being able to get a take down in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Just the way I see it and trying to find some value. GL with your Rampage wager. One of us will cash.
Im on Bader +195, Kongo -310, Lauzon +205
can someone tweet dana white and ask if he would ever give a bonus to someone who missed weight? im considering loading up on not rampage kotn @ -1050. this seems like free money to me, but it would be nice for some assurance.
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