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Vegas Dave's NFL PHILOSOPHY PICK 10/26 (10 - 1 ATS This Year!)
Well, so far this year my PHILOSOPHY PICKS are 10 – 1 – 0 ATS.
9 – 0 – 0 ATS since Week 2
I know, sounds very tout-ish, but it is true; and I’ve posted all of these picks and sent them out in my newsletter so you know I’m not pulling this out of thin air.
So either fade me if you think I’m due to crash, or tail me if you believe in these suckers!
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
TRAP SPREAD:
In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 - 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Buffalo is viewed as a pretty legitimate playoff-bound team this year.
Miami is 2 – 4, coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. The Wildcat, while still dangerous to break the big play, is no longer a surprise; teams that prepare for the Dolphins know that this formation is in their repertoire now and make sure to spend time during the week on how to defend against it and not bite too early on misdirection plays. Chad Pennington’s arm is extremely limited in a conventional passing game, and this week he faces the league’s 9th ranked passing defense.
Shouldn’t Miami be getting AT LEAST a field goal here? Before you make the Buffalo/@Arizona argument, consider that Arizona was a very different story; not only is Arizona a better team than Miami, but Buffalo also had to travel cross country into a different time zone for that one. The Bills had no trouble in heading down to Florida to beat Jacksonville earlier this year.
The spread opened at Buffalo (-2.0) / Miami (+2.0). About 80% of bets came in on the Bills; and the line moved to -1.0. No, that isn’t a typo; they got the majority of the action at about 4 to 1, but the line moved in the opposite direction. Very interesting.
BUFFALO DOMINANCE:
Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 games they have played against Miami.
Why do I like that? Because as if Buffalo doesn’t have enough reason to be confident heading into this game, they also know that they dominate this team. Yes, as a player you can train yourself not to think that way, but subconsciously for long-time Bills, it is awfully hard not to notice that when you see Dolphin jerseys on the other side of the ball, you win the game. For the Dolphins, this is a chance to show that in the Parcells era, things are going to be different in this rivalry.
HOME DOG:
Lastly, this is Miami’s second straight game at home. They lost as a favorite at home last week, and now they find themselves a home underdog. Blindly betting every home dog on the board all season won’t make you any money. Home dogs playing in front of the same home crowd that they just lost to a team they were favored against, this week playing against a surging division rival? It really doesn’t get a whole lot better.
Fins win this one outright.
Good luck, fade or follow
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Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner
gl!
