Originally Posted by
benrama
This comes down to India's batting advantage versus Pakistan's bowling advantage. To quote ESPNcricinfo:
"In this World Cup, India have the better average (39.46) and run-rate (5.89) than Pakistan, who average 33.13 and score at 5.07. No Pakistani batsman has scored a century in this World Cup so far, while there have been five centuries for India in their seven matches. Three of India's batsmen figure among the top ten run-getters in the World Cup, whereas Umar Akmal, Pakistan's top scorer does not figure in the top 20.
Pakistan have been the better bowling side by far, though. They have an excellent economy rate (4.11) and average (19.95). While there have been two four-wicket hauls for Indian bowlers, all four of Pakistan's four-wicket hauls have been taken by Afridi. Shoaib Akhtar hasn't been at his best in the World Cup, but Pakistan might still risk him given his record against India - 41 wickets at 26.78. For India, Zaheer Khan, with17 wickets at an average of 16.23 in the tournament, has been the best bowler. Yuvraj Singh has been highly successful with 11 wickets at 24.63. On the other hand, the experienced Harbhajan Singh has had a very ordinary time, with six wickets at an average of nearly 50."
Pakistan had a much easier set of group matches, and their bowling figures were flattered by Canada, Kenya and the West Indies quarter final collapse. Pakistan also had a batting collapse against New Zealand, and - Canada??? India are 4-0 against Pakistan in world cup matches and Pakistan have a history of batting collapses. Pakistan can win on their day, but I say if this game is played 10 times, India wins 7 of them, therefore getting odds of -175 on India is good value to me, as I look it at like (0.7*1-0.3*1.75) = 0.175 x UNITS bet.
If Pakistan win the toss and bat first and can put up a good total, say 270+ I'd make them favourites to win by the 2nd innings. Any other scenario and I think it's going to be a long night for Pakistan supporters.
So biggest bet of the world cup for me on this game, $600 to win $330 on India.