1. #1
    MartyMcFly
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    $1 Million bet on the Packers placed in Las Vegas

    posted by Vegas Insider

    The Las Vegas sportsbooks are buzzing with action a week to go before the Super Bowl, both from those making bets and the others just standing around looking at the board. Just about everyone who has checked in this week has made it a priority to stroll over to the book and see what the line is. Some of them make some bets while others just use it as a topic of conversation knowing they will bet later, probably closer to their departure.
    The visitors who wait like to use the game as a topic of conversation wherever they go hoping to hear something, from anyone, during their stay that sways them one way or another. The locals in town are waiting for something to happen one way or another, but the only thing moving right now has been the total dropping from 46 to 44 ½ while the game itself still has the packers minus-2 ½.

    Because of that waiting game by many of the bettors, a few of the sportsbook Directors are questioning their initial thoughts that this Super Bowl could possibly surpass the all-time state record of $94.5 million in handle set in 2006 between the Steelers and Seahawks, a time when money was freely spent before settling in our current economic climate. The last two years under that climate has seen handle at $82.7 and $81.5 million.

    According to reports, at least $1 million is already in the kitty early on as the MGM resorts properties took a large wager on the Packers at minus-2 ½, prompting only a .10 cents move to -2 ½ (-120). For MGM Resorts to have accepted a wager that large, it’s an indication that it came from a house player with a large line of credit, meaning that it wasn’t a Sharp who made the wager, but rather just a guy with lots of money who wants to make his Super Bowl experience a little more interesting.

    That’s exactly what this game brings to Las Vegas. It’s not on the same level as the gentleman with the large wager, but what it does is bring everyone to the sportsbook -- who normally don’t wager -- to make a bet, while also making the casual bettor up his normal wager amount. It’s kind of like Christmas and Easter at church, which always brings out those with faith on least those two special days.

    Aside from the wager, most sportsbooks are reporting great two-way action thus far which has kept the spread at a stand still. Most of the Directors agree that they believe the late money will come on Pittsburgh, but are holding ground until it happens. The worst case scenario for the books would be if Green Bay money came in stronger and they were eventually forced to move to minus-3 making them vulnerable to get sided (paying on one side and refunding the other).

    Money Line Value?

    The Super Bowl underdog money-line never gives fair value, thanks in part to having some rough days at the hands of the Patriots vs. Rams, Giants vs. Patriots and Denver vs. Green Bay. Even though those Super Bowls had double-digit spreads with giant money-lines, the sportsbooks still have to book on the side of caution knowing that the majority of the public loves to get that plus-money backing the underdog.

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    On a normal 2-½-point spread during the regular season, the conversion chart shows that a game should be about -145/+125. The shade on this game is -130/+110 at most books which is a combination of both expecting more Steelers money to come in and knowing that a large portion of Pittsburgh bets will be on the money-line.

    Very few bettors will touch the Packers money-line at this juncture even though the line is very fair to what the spread is. The casual bettor doesn’t want lay more to get less and would rather lay the points while the Sharp also feels they can wait it out for a better price, either because of extended action on underdog money or that the Steelers money actually does come in later.

    The Sportsbooks Ultimate Wish

    Two of the most profitable Super Bowl wins for the house occurred when the favorite won but didn’t cover. The top all-time win for the State was in 2005 with the Patriots beating the Eagles that netted $15.4 million in win at a 17% hold. Despite Donavan McNabb throwing up late in the game, he managed to get the back-door cover late that killed all the bets on the Patriots as 7-point favorites.

    The year prior, Carolina gave the Patriots all they could handle as 7-point underdogs, eventually losing 32-29, but covering. The win netted the State $12.4 million in win for a 15.3% hold.

    Because this years spread is so low -- one of the lowest ever -- the ideal scenario happening again seems unlikely. However, the last time these two teams played, it was a 1-point Steelers win in a 37-36 shootout during Week 15 last season.

    Packers winning by 1-point this year would be the ultimate scenario for the Nevada sportsbooks.

    Total Dropping

    Maybe it’s because five of the last six Super Bowls have gone ‘under’ the number or maybe it’s because this game features the first and third ranked defenses in the league, but I have hard time understanding why this game is being bet ‘under’ with such conviction.

    Yes, we’ve seen Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers look average in three games against the Bears and the Steelers figure to game plan their model similarly, but I can’t get that 2009 Week 15 game out of my head where the two teams combined for 973 yards. The two teams exchanged blows throughout, with both teams alternating scores in each half.

    The more I think about how good the Steelers top ranked run defense is, the more I think the Packers may scrap the run game a little bit and get the Steelers into a tempo they don’t like to play.

    The time to prepare angle has worked in favor of defenses the last few Super Bowls and we just saw the National Championship game between two high powered collegiate teams be stifled due to weeks of defensive preparation, but I don’t see it here.

    Propositions

    The Super Bowl props are slowly coming out around the city as of Friday and there is a mad scramble by many to get their edge on middle opportunities before the sportsbooks all settle at about the same number. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book released their props Thursday night, but wait to offer a sheet until a day later just to avoid copy cats.

  2. #2
    Nathan Bug Tyler
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    so if he bet a million who much would he win

  3. #3
    MartyMcFly
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    Depends, at (-110) he would win $909,090

  4. #4
    RAK
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    Nice insight McFly!

  5. #5
    gohabsgo
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAK View Post
    Nice insight McFly!
    Mcfly lol


  6. #6
    MartyMcFly
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    Quote Originally Posted by gohabsgo View Post
    Mcfly lol
    Good scene

  7. #7
    bobbyk1133
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    I hope they don't reveal my name! I wanted to place that bet anonymously.

  8. #8
    Numenor80
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    I wonder how often this happens in Vegas? Anybody know what the largest bet an online book has taken?

  9. #9
    pittmatt80
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    It must be nice to be able to put $1mil on one game. I hope he wins because I'm a huge Green Bay fan and have been since '89 would really like to see Rodgers win the big one. Good Luck to All

  10. #10
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
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    Wish I had stacks like that.

  11. #11
    Robust
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    steeler money late is expected.. late bettors are usually the public, unless the line moves to 3... I just made a $100 bet on the steelers to win straight up locally at even money (friend not bookie).. I am now officially nervous

    good luck with your bets guys! still got time to think it out

    Robust

  12. #12
    oChRoNiCo
    DON'T TALK ABOUT IT, BE ABOUT IT SON!
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    Was probably some rich Green Bay fan they are all over the place LoL

  13. #13
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Some guy last year bet $1.7 MILLION AT THE "M" sportsbook and casino in Vegas on the Saints and won. He is the most feared and successful gambler ever. I forget his name but they did a piece on him on 60 Minutes last week.

  14. #14
    JMobile
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAK View Post
    Nice insight McFly!
    Great Scotts!!!!!

  15. #15
    hitman09
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    Great infor McFly. By the way, that guy bet the same side as me. LOL. Let's cash it right in my home town.

  16. #16
    Bazz27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numenor80 View Post
    I wonder how often this happens in Vegas? Anybody know what the largest bet an online book has taken?
    maybe its our 60 mins man wisely getting in early

  17. #17
    Bazz27
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Some guy last year bet $1.7 MILLION AT THE "M" sportsbook and casino in Vegas on the Saints and won. He is the most feared and successful gambler ever. I forget his name but they did a piece on him on 60 Minutes last week.
    $$$$$$$ Mr Billy Walters $$$$$$$$

  18. #18
    sweethook
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    good to go

  19. #19
    jedikarl
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    how do we find out how much has been bet on the game

  20. #20
    Preston09
    You eat pieces of shit for breakfast?
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    That's insane

  21. #21
    Preston09
    You eat pieces of shit for breakfast?
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    It probably is not to big of a deal to this guy though, I mean if you have a Mil you can easily make a Mil.

  22. #22
    dannyd66
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    Avoid The Temptation....

    to OVERTHINK this one------both teams are who we thought they were....and the Steelers are better. They win.

  23. #23
    KACK
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    Maybe it's the fan that just put $80,000 bid on then super bowl suite....it must be nice to throw money like these guys are doing... Now... Let me go put my big $50 bet in today

  24. #24
    AribaAriba
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    The guy has a big credit meaning his a long time loser to Mirage book, this guy isnt sharp as they were. Books arent stupid to take such action. Steelers it is

  25. #25
    jhack704
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    if this game ends in a gb win by 1 or 2 something fishy is going on

  26. #26
    zoso11871
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    Steelers win!

  27. #27
    lamanax
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    I know The M takes huge bets. How much does a regular casino take without moving the line on a SUper Bowl Game? I know when you bet NFL odds to win the Super Bowl in the offseason, a lot of casinos won't even take $500 at 20-1 (or more) without moving the line.

  28. #28
    dise-pa
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    should be a great game..

  29. #29
    teddyd
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Some guy last year bet $1.7 MILLION AT THE "M" sportsbook and casino in Vegas on the Saints and won. He is the most feared and successful gambler ever. I forget his name but they did a piece on him on 60 Minutes last week.

    that 60 minutes piece was awesome

  30. #30
    eldoctord
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    Two good teams with no obvious weakness....should be a very good game...to suggest the outcome might be influenced by someone betting a million dollars on the Packers is pretty funny

  31. #31
    Jankar
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    For MGM Resorts to have accepted a wager that large, it’s an indication that it came from a house player with a large line of credit, meaning that it wasn’t a Sharp who made the wager, but rather just a guy with lots of money who wants to make his Super Bowl experience a little more interesting.

  32. #32
    TheAccountant
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    Interesting article..

    I would definitely play ML +130 much quicker than +2.5 -110, as suggested in article.

  33. #33
    MileHigh_Broncos
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    Great piece!

  34. #34
    JosephPavs
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    1 mil is steep for 1 game

  35. #35
    thebestthereis
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    It was Wayne Root's hair making the wager

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